Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[KDME]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Roll on spring .Thats when we see normally see proper Northern Blocking and the chance of some decent snow here.Last time we saw lying snow here was March 2013;more than in Dec 2010 

Godd riddance Winter 17/18 a complete joke and traversty of a winter in the SE

We need to get used to the idea that this is now the norm!
Snow in the SW, S and SE of the UK particularly is now rare, transient events.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Roll on spring .Thats when we see normally see proper Northern Blocking and the chance of some decent snow here.Last time we saw lying snow here was March 2013;more than in Dec 2010 

Godd riddance Winter 17/18 a complete joke and traversty of a winter in the SE

 

58 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

We need to get used to the idea that this is now the norm!
Snow in the SW, S and SE of the UK particularly is now rare, transient events.

It’s been a completely normal winter here in the SE. Temperatures have been average or below, there have been several storms, more than one occasion of snow falling and/or laying, and cold snaps with plenty of frosts. Also a lack of prolonged very mild SW’ly winds that have characterised many recent winters. 

Snow has always been pretty rare in the S of England; it’s just become that bit rarer in recent years. No one can say if this is a permanent change, or not. I understand it must be frustrating if you love snow but it’s really nothing new, the UK has always been marginal for cold and snow and unless something drastic occurs (like a mini Ice Age), it always will be. 

[knocker]

Should the Met Office have named last night’s storm?

[markyo]

Roll on Autumn....this Winter is just proving how crap our weather is,really looking forward to the summer months now...not.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, markyo said:

Roll on Autumn....this Winter is just proving how crap our weather is,really looking forward to the summer months now...not.

What's with the silly letters Mark? your choice or default? quite a few members have them!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay, summer best season, potentially only 4 months away! warm weather next week may make it seem closer, best chart of last summer

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What's with the silly letters Mark? your choice or default? quite a few members have them!

Everyone who doesn't have an avatar I think

[Matthew.]

43 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, summer best season, potentially only 4 months away! warm weather next week may make it seem closer, best chart of last summer

That whole weekend was fantastic also friday

Edited January 18, 2018 by Matthew.

[Ice Man 85]

45 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, summer best season, potentially only 4 months away! warm weather next week may make it seem closer, best chart of last summer

I can think of better ones. Specifically those than had the jet in its southernly position keeping the filth in europe.

[CK1981]

I see many in the MOD thread are still trying to polish a turd with the latest output. Let’s face it, it’s looking generally mild and boring for the foreseeable ?

Edited January 18, 2018 by CK1981

[Kentish Man]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Should the Met Office have named last night’s storm?

Well given they've named "storms" that didn't produce much more than a bit of a breeze down here perhaps they should have. Especially as my neighbours tree lost a huge branch that narrowly missed falling on to the A26. 

[markyo]

9 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What's with the silly letters Mark? your choice or default? quite a few members have them!

Default! Certainly not by choice!

[northwestsnow]

Getting on for 2/3 of winter done with and tbh its been another shocker in my location.

I sympathize with those in the south were it has been mainly snowless- believe me its not been much better here- i'd score it as a 2/10 so far, marginally better than last years 1/10.

Its the same old song- whether its la nina, el nino EQbo WQbo its all amounting to the same thing- an atlantic dominated winter.

 i think we need to all face up to the fact winters have changed, yes yes there will be the odd exception..

I honestly think the models have not , or cannot see how much energy is now residing in the Atlantic ocean- its a theme that re-occurs every single winter, mouth watering charts at 144/168/192 get down graded or watered down toto nothing as t-0 approaches, its no coincidence, its happening far too often.

After much consideration i will never again be suckered in by a fabulous looking chart on ANY model post 120hrs- 

 

Edited January 19, 2018 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

After much consideration i will never again be suckered in by a fabulous looking chart on ANY model post 120hrs- 

 

It's the way you tell 'em

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

It's the way you tell 'em

No i actually mean it !!

Enoughs enough- iv'e donated far too much time to staring at my monitor open mouthed pondering what went wrong-

I reckon around 80% of winters since 2003 (when i started the journey of pain) have been an absolute bag of spanners- 

The bar is now low- infact so low i would struggle to believe even if we had cross model agreement at 96hrs!!

[John88B]

15 hours ago, Weather_Novice said:

We need to get used to the idea that this is now the norm!
Snow in the SW, S and SE of the UK particularly is now rare, transient events.

This is absolute rubbish. The areas you mentioned will get plenty of cold weathrr and snowfalls in years to come. 

Why people look back on winters past with their rose tinted glasses on I don't know. Having lived through the 70's and 80's I can tell you there were plenty of mild winters back then. Yes there were very cold snaps and big snowfalls here in the south west but they were rare events even back then.

In years to come, when conditions are right we will still see very cold weather and snowfalls, even here in the south west, but they will be pretty rare events and they always were!

 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

No i actually mean it !!

Enoughs enough- iv'e donated far too much time to staring at my monitor open mouthed pondering what went wrong-

I reckon around 80% of winters since 2003 (when i started the journey of pain) have been an absolute bag of spanners- 

The bar is now low- infact so low i would struggle to believe even if we had cross model agreement at 96hrs!!

We do have 6 weeks of winter to go, you never know. But when it comes to cold weather modelled, T48 or even T24 might be safer! If it can go wrong here, it will. 

Edited January 19, 2018 by stainesbloke

[rain_shadow]

Cloudy in North Wales of course - again. It looked like nice tomorrow, a day ago, now it looks cloudy - again, just not cold enough for snow - again, just not North enough for sunshine - again. 

[KDME]

5 hours ago, John88B said:

This is absolute rubbish. The areas you mentioned will get plenty of cold weathrr and snowfalls in years to come. 

Why people look back on winters past with their rose tinted glasses on I don't know. Having lived through the 70's and 80's I can tell you there were plenty of mild winters back then. Yes there were very cold snaps and big snowfalls here in the south west but they were rare events even back then.

In years to come, when conditions are right we will still see very cold weather and snowfalls, even here in the south west, but they will be pretty rare events and they always were!

 

Yeah, but when we have experienced warmer winters and hardly any snowfall for the best part of a decade, then surely, we should take it as the new norm!?

I have to say I am speaking more for when I live and work and that is the SE.

[John88B]

35 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Yeah, but when we have experienced warmer winters and hardly any snowfall for the best part of a decade, then surely, we should take it as the new norm!?

I have to say I am speaking more for when I live and work and that is the SE.

Yes I get what you're saying but even here, in this part of the south west, in the last decade we've had the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 which produced long cold spells and numerous snowfalls. 2013 which produced a heavy snowfall during January and even this year two light snowfalls with snow cover for a few days.

The above really isn't much different from the 70's and 80's believe me. The problem with the human mind is that it remembers the boiling hot summers and cold snowy winters but forgets about the normal, mudane weather and tricks us into believing they were common place events but they really weren't!

Edited January 19, 2018 by John88B

[James1979]

6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Getting on for 2/3 of winter done with and tbh its been another shocker in my location.

I sympathize with those in the south were it has been mainly snowless- believe me its not been much better here- i'd score it as a 2/10 so far, marginally better than last years 1/10.

Its the same old song- whether its la nina, el nino EQbo WQbo its all amounting to the same thing- an atlantic dominated winter.

 i think we need to all face up to the fact winters have changed, yes yes there will be the odd exception..

I honestly think the models have not , or cannot see how much energy is now residing in the Atlantic ocean- its a theme that re-occurs every single winter, mouth watering charts at 144/168/192 get down graded or watered down toto nothing as t-0 approaches, its no coincidence, its happening far too often.

After much consideration i will never again be suckered in by a fabulous looking chart on ANY model post 120hrs- 

 

Heard that last bit from so many every year including myself - I swore by it years back, have stuck to it and take it all with a hefty pinch of salt.  Long gone are the days of endless frustration over failed FI charts for me - I've accepted that something's changed and if I get a bonus snowfall (which I did in Dec 17 for first time in a long time) then great and the same for the ever declining storms in summer.  This time next year will be the same story no doubt - Groundhog year again.

[swebby]

8 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

No i actually mean it !!

Enoughs enough- iv'e donated far too much time to staring at my monitor open mouthed pondering what went wrong-

I reckon around 80% of winters since 2003 (when i started the journey of pain) have been an absolute bag of spanners- 

The bar is now low- infact so low i would struggle to believe even if we had cross model agreement at 96hrs!!

I'd say  - do not assume the goods will arrive until agreement is within 72hrs and even then assume what can go wrong will go wrong.  It's the position i take  and it avoids disappointments but then living in Exeter, which is freakishly free of both snow and Tstorms wrt the rest of Devon, means a pessimistic outlook is the only way forward.

[SLEETY]

It’s just the lack of easterlies in the winter months that is so noticeable now,Even Arctic Northerlies are rare too,although at least we had one decent Northerly in Dec which gave the Midlands a decent snowfall.

Untill we see an increase in these two types of airstream then winters are going to  continue to suck at low levels in the UK for the foreseeable future.

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Why did I ever doubt in the large teapot? 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

 

On 18/01/2018 at 19:36, knocker said:

Should the Met Office have named last night’s storm?

Thanks for posting, Malcolm, but that article was a complete waste of electrons IMO.