Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Ice Man 85]

6 hours ago, Spikey M said:

 then you need to prove it. 

1) every model run from the last 3 days (barring that ecm outlier yesterday)

2) consistency from the gfs

3) background signals waning

I'm well aware of the snow warnings out. My post was in reference to the extended outlook rather than right now. It just my feelings, not trying to get into an argument with anyone here. I've by some miracle we get more favourable synoptics and model runs, then fantastic.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Paul

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

6 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

1) every model run from the last 3 days (barring that ecm outlier yesterday)

2) consistency from the gfs

3) background signals waning

I'm well aware of the snow warnings out. My post was in reference to the extended outlook rather than right now. It just my feelings, not trying to get into an argument with anyone here. I've by some miracle we get more favourable synoptics and model runs, then fantastic.

Whats so bad about the current sypnotics? If they are telling you winter is over then what part are you looking at?

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Paul

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, - 40*C said:

Whats so bad about the current sypnotics? If they are telling you winter is over then what part are you looking at?

 

Mostly the waning of things that would have put us in a favourable position just days ago. mjo, strat warming etc.

[Daniel*]

55 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I wish nothing but the best for you too in Greece
Don't forget me, I beg maybe in 2018/19 winter
I'll remember you said,

Sometimes it a failed Easterly hurts instead,

Best post of the year.  Sounds more lyrical to me inspired by Adele.  

Never thought I’d find a beast like you - when she bloody turns up. 

Call me a cherry picker but continuation of eye candy as February rings in .. interesting now they jointly build +ve heights shooting poleward over the UK many a brutal cold spell has started this way.

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Best post of the year.  Sounds more lyrical to me inspired by Adele.  

Never thought I’d find a beast like you - when she bloody turns up. 

Call me a cherry picker but continuation of eye candy as February rings in .. interesting now they jointly build +ve heights shooting poleward over the UK many a brutal cold spell has started this way.

Of course winter is not over and there is still time for more cold set ups to occur but the cherry picking of charts to prove the point is just as tedious really, I quite frankly don't care whatever LRF's have ever say and nor should other people, its what the models start indicating in the short to medium term and the trend does seem to be one of turning signficantly milder and it could be quite a lengthy mild spell but even that is by no means a certainty.

The other issue is any blocking is too far away for any effect on our weather and its fair to say, there won't be any significant widespread cold spell for a while yet.

[Norway Nut]

Isn't life grand?

Here are some life events that I use to measure the passage of time ; the first cuckoo of spring, the first roar of a chainsaw as Norwegians start to cut down next winter's wood and the first one - the chorus of posters on Netweather saying "Winter's over".

I really don't understand some folks attitude to winter in the UK. Surely they don't expect a "once in 30 years" event to happen every year? If so, perhaps they need to move to somewhere where it's the climatic norm. 

End of... 

[snowfish1]

If moving was an option there'd be a stampede 

[snowfish1]

2 hours ago, Norway Nut said:

Isn't life grand?

Here are some life events that I use to measure the passage of time ; the first cuckoo of spring, the first roar of a chainsaw as Norwegians start to cut down next winter's wood and the first one - the chorus of posters on Netweather saying "Winter's over".

I really don't understand some folks attitude to winter in the UK. Surely they don't expect a "once in 30 years" event to happen every year? If so, perhaps they need to move to somewhere where it's the climatic norm. 

End of... 

If moving was an easy option there'd be an earthquake caused by the stampede 

[mountain shadow]

By Saturday, I think we can say by by to any chance of cold for the rest of the month.

 

[Hammer50]

Roll on Spring had enough now if it's not going to snow fast forward to spring.

[stainesbloke]

48 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

If moving was an option there'd be a stampede 

Hehe, indeed. Though 17 million fine citizens of these islands have scuppered that option for most of us. Well, a European option, anyhoo. 

[snow freak]

1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

If moving was an option there'd be a stampede 

exactly.  Those who say we should move to another country if we are so fed up with the British climate need to get a reality check.  Most of us can't just 'move' to another country unless you have a) a job to go to or b) enough money to support your emigration.  I have neither so I am stuck in this country unfortunately.

[Norway Nut]

2 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

If moving was an easy option there'd be an earthquake caused by the stampede 

It wasn't easy moving to Norway like what I did but I was fed up with the constant hunt for snow in the winter time. 

Okay, I live in the most snowless location in Norway but I still enjoy a winter that stretches  from end of October til about the end of March/ beginning of April. How long does your winter last?

As a result of the move I'm living in a detatched 3/4 bedroomed, 2 lounges, 2 baths( without baths), double garaged property with car and boat. I doubt I would be living in such splendour in the UK!

[karyo]

20 minutes ago, Norway Nut said:

It wasn't easy moving to Norway like what I did but I was fed up with the constant hunt for snow in the winter time. 

Okay, I live in the most snowless location in Norway but I still enjoy a winter that stretches  from end of October til about the end of March/ beginning of April. How long does your winter last?

As a result of the move I'm living in a detatched 3/4 bedroomed, 2 lounges, 2 baths( without baths), double garaged property with car and boat. I doubt I would be living in such splendour in the UK!

Sounds good. Have you learned the language?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

After a promising December what a way to end winter with a whimper ☹️

[knocker]

Ah, not long now and nature will be awakening and the forces of darkeners can once more rest peacefully.

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by knocker

[Interitus]

2 hours ago, Norway Nut said:

It wasn't easy moving to Norway like what I did but I was fed up with the constant hunt for snow in the winter time. 

Okay, I live in the most snowless location in Norway but I still enjoy a winter that stretches  from end of October til about the end of March/ beginning of April. How long does your winter last?

As a result of the move I'm living in a detatched 3/4 bedroomed, 2 lounges, 2 baths( without baths), double garaged property with car and boat. I doubt I would be living in such splendour in the UK!

How much is the beer? No thanks!

[MP-R]

Any of the below will do me nicely in February:

  

[Wimbledon88]

They must be delighted in the met office today.

It has been decided by Netweather that on the 18 January that winter is over,so there's no need for them to do ought else until the end if March.

Switch off the super computers and grab your coats lads and go home because there's nought else to do for the next 10 weeks.Just issue one forecast "mild,breezy with some rain" and that will do till end if March. There will be no more winter this year.

What utter utter nonsense!!!!!!  B-) B-)

 

 

 

 

 

[Donna3397]

30 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

They must be delighted in the met office today.

It has been decided by Netweather that on the 18 January that winter is over,so there's no need for them to do ought else until the end if March.

Switch off the super computers and grab your coats lads and go home because there's nought else to do for the next 10 weeks.Just issue one forecast "mild,breezy with some rain" and that will do till end if March. There will be no more winter this year.

What utter utter nonsense!!!!!!  B-) B-)

 

 

 

 

 

 Think they turned their computers of yesterday for the SE.

[Wimbledon88]

3 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

 Think they turned their computers of yesterday for the SE.

Yes,that's certainly true! 

Good job that storm didnt hit during the day. 

Someone screwed up somewhere.

[Donna3397]

1 minute ago, SW1988 said:

Yes,that's certainly true! 

Good job that storm didnt hit during the day. 

Someone screwed up somewhere.

I can’t believe the warning was there then removed. I was awake at 2am it wasn’t put up for another 15mins.

[KDME]

10 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just 1% of that here in the SE would be nice ....

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

3 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Just 1% of that here in the SE would be nice ....

Just 0.5 % of that would be nice to see in South Wales it would make a very welcome change from rain & gales that's for sure  

Edited January 18, 2018 by Draig Goch

[SLEETY]

Roll on spring .Thats when we see normally see proper Northern Blocking and the chance of some decent snow here.Last time we saw lying snow here was March 2013;more than in Dec 2010 

Godd riddance Winter 17/18 a complete joke and traversty of a winter in the SE