Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Chesil View]

Yes Nws thats true. Its epecially notable here in lowland southern England The Fifties and sixties saw significant snowfalls in seven out of the ten winters in each decade down to five in the eighties and  three in the nineties.

So far in the current decade only 2013 has delivered significantly here.

[Weather-history]

17 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What do you actually class as the christmas pudding though, you cant class it as the last 20 years as a whole - because how would 2009-2013 fit in with your large teapot theory?, I belive we will do better again (could still be this winter) but more probably 2019-2020. climate change happens all the time and will continue to - no matter how much co2 we pump out (or not), climate will always change.

I wouldn't hold your breath for a response. I have been asking similar  questions for months and get no response but the posts are still churned out. It's like asking a tape recording a question. The tape recording is rewound and played again.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Weather-history

[Ross90]

For everyone asking about the North West on the model thread this would be my interpretation of exactly where it ends. 

 

 

[SLEETY]

 30 years  of  nearly snowless January’s are though.

how many decent cold snowy spells can anyone remember in JANUARY since the 80s ,count them on one hand 

[knocker]

Could be quite unpleasant behind the cold front beginning of next week with strong winds and frequent snow showers along the west coast and inland further north

[northwestsnow]

31 minutes ago, knocker said:

Could be quite unpleasant behind the cold front beginning of next week with strong winds and frequent snow showers along the west coast and inland further north

Thats GFS knocker...ukmo is an 80s pop group..imho.

[KDME]

59 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 30 years  of  nearly snowless January’s are though.

how many decent cold snowy spells can anyone remember in JANUARY since the 80s ,count them on one hand 

... and yet there are still expectations that every Jan will be a beasterly snowfest!

I an losing the will to live when people still gain some excitement from day 10 models!  I have a gut feeling that the 2 snow days we saw last month in the SE is it  for this winter.  Getting into a cycle of nothingness, then hope and then verbal fights on the MOD thread when it all disintegrates near reliable time.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats GFS knocker...ukmo is an 80s pop group..imho.

Well I'm not sure what you mean by that and I've just watched the METO 10 day update and the jets a revving as expected and it aint nice

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I'm not sure what you mean by that and I've just watched the METO 10 day update and the jets a revving as expected and it aint nice

Wet wet wet ..

[knocker]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Wet wet wet ..

Ahh I'm with you now, you wanted dry snow.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ahh I'm with you now, you wanted dry snow.

Prefer that to rain but hey ho what can you do when the devil vomets in your kettle..

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Weather_Novice said:

... and yet there are still expectations that every Jan will be a beasterly snowfest!

I an losing the will to live when people still gain some excitement from day 10 models!  I have a gut feeling that the 2 snow days we saw last month in the SE is it  for this winter.  Getting into a cycle of nothingness, then hope and then verbal fights on the MOD thread when it all disintegrates near reliable time.

It just the way the it is  now,I almost expect no snow in Jan now.

I hope we get one more 87 style freeze up before we leave the planet lol

i see the met aren’t keen on much snow now,the word has been removed from their long range output 

 

Edited January 10, 2018 by SLEETY

[knocker]

Could certainly do without this scenario

[feb1991blizzard]

This is what I'm banking on now - all my eggs in one basket.

That's my kind of warm anomaly.

 

[Number 23]

Well, after all the excitement the MOD now settles back into a more normal rhythm. It was genuinely interesting reading the different takes on the output. I'm glad the fate of that block in terms of a notable UK weather event is decided though.

Sadly there's a pretty unpleasant spell of weather in the offing now. More or less my least favoured conditions.

Looking at summer holidays and thoughts of 30 degree heat to lift my mood!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

4 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Yes Nws thats true. Its epecially notable here in lowland southern England The Fifties and sixties saw significant snowfalls in seven out of the ten winters in each decade down to five in the eighties and  three in the nineties.

So far in the current decade only 2013 has delivered significantly here.

I'd imagine that the period 1900 to 1940 saw very few big snow events in lowland southern England though. There seemed to be quite an increase in colder and more snowy Winters starting in the 1940s for whatever reason and it could be said this period lasted until the late 1980s (though this is debatable considering there were still plenty of milder Winters in this period as well as a 6 year period of mild Winters in the early to mid 70s as well as the odd cold Winter in the 90s but I digress) and been as a lot of people on this forum experienced much of the earlier years of their lives during this time period I guess it has skewed perceptions of what the weather should be like at this time of year (though taking any particular date in that period like say 10th Jan, I'd imagine the amount of times snow was on the ground for any low lying areas of England would be in the minority, perhaps even a small one).  If we were living 100 years ago Winters generally wouldn't be any better than now for the most part. Therefore it's likely either cyclical or perhaps even random. Either way it'll probably change for the better at some point and there's no need to give up hope on this Winter delivering yet as we've still got a while yet before were out of the time of year when snow is possible.

[stainesbloke]

6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Its changed our climate..yes we get the odd cold winter but lets call a spade a spade here, the overwhelming trend is warmer and wetter...sorry to say anyone who denies it is denying reality.

And i got too say, reluctantly, talk of torpedos and dashboards lighting up is starting to get my gander up too.

I agree that the past 15-20 years or so have been somewhat ‘different’. I’m wondering if this is just a normal phase of a cycle of milder winters, though? I’ve  been around 45 years so can only compare within some of that time period, but I reckon that analysis of the entire 20th century would show many mild and virtually snowless January’s, if not entire winters. There could be a run of very cold and snowy winters coming up?

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I agree that the past 15-20 years or so have been somewhat ‘different’. I’m wondering if this is just a normal phase of a cycle of milder winters, though? I’ve  been around 45 years so can only compare within some of that time period, but I reckon that analysis of the entire 20th century would show many mild and virtually snowless January’s, if not entire winters. There could be a run of very cold and snowy winters coming up?

Our climate is always changing SB; any appearance of stability is really only illusory:

Not only do we experience changes that affect things in deep time (plate tectonics and orbital changes/cycles) we have the familiar effects that manifest themselves in human lifetimes (the various Solar cycles, ENSO and MJO etc. etc.). And on top of those (and myriad others we might not even know of) there is the perpetually upwards AGW-signal...

Who's to know whether the upcoming solar minimum can offset the AGW signal or not? Who's to know just how all these signals/forcings are interconnected?

Not me. That's for sure!

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

It just the way the it is  now,I almost expect no snow in Jan now.

I hope we get one more 87 style freeze up before we leave the planet lol

i see the met aren’t keen on much snow now,the word has been removed from their long range output 

 

no thanks im suffering from minor frost bite to my left ear after shoveling my drive yesterday at -23c with a windchill of -38c

[CK1981]

I’m off to Tallin next Friday. It looks like I won’t have to worry about the dreaded ‘cold zonality’ or ‘potential’ there ?

[Matthew.]

45 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I agree that the past 15-20 years or so have been somewhat ‘different’. I’m wondering if this is just a normal phase of a cycle of milder winters, though? I’ve  been around 45 years so can only compare within some of that time period, but I reckon that analysis of the entire 20th century would show many mild and virtually snowless January’s, if not entire winters. There could be a run of very cold and snowy winters coming up?

Scanning the CET years there is a marked difference in the last 20 years of years over the 10c category. Times are changing. Cold and snow will still happen but a rarer occurance 

[Stuie]

If I read "snow on the hills" one more time....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

typical of the christmas pudding though Stuie, PM flows do not deliver to low levels in the south anymore

[biggreyface]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

If I read "snow on the hills" one more time....

Sorry couldn't resist?

[SLEETY]

33 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

no thanks im suffering from minor frost bite to my left ear after shoveling my drive yesterday at -23c with a windchill of -38c

You were not wearing balaclava in those temps ,why ever not,then no frostbite.

sounds mild -38c windchill compared to the -90c windchill on mount Washington recently