Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

In my post above this line:

In the ext period some major pattern changes upstream with the west Pacific trough moving east into western North America

should of course read east Pacific trough

[Matthew.]

All this mention of wanting an easterly. I went down to the east coast sea front today and all I’ll say is I wasn’t their long

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

All this mention of wanting an easterly. I went down to the east coast sea front today and all I’ll say is I wasn’t their long

It's because it's windy too warm and therefore wet and humid. You'll lose more heat that way than with proper cold because many materials lose their insulating properties when wet and the wind will just remove all your heat very quickly 

Edited January 8, 2018 by ArHu3

[markw2680]

13 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

All this mention of wanting an easterly. I went down to the east coast sea front today and all I’ll say is I wasn’t their long

I can only imagine how that must of felt, it was cold enough here today but with that wind there brrrr

[Paul Sherman]

Whats this great weather coming in for the Snow Starved SE ?

Did someone mention a North Westerly.................

 

 

 

[Matthew.]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It's because it's windy too warm and therefore wet and humid. You'll lose more heat that way than with proper cold because many materials lose their insulating properties when wet and the wind will just remove all your heat very quickly 

The thing is the wind felt very dry but incredibly cold. The thermometer said 5.5c. Yes my 4 layers were no match for the wind from the east

[snowray]

4 hours ago, Matthew. said:

The thing is the wind felt very dry but incredibly cold. The thermometer said 5.5c. Yes my 4 layers were no match for the wind from the east

Last couple of days it felt colder than what it was, local pub landlord today was saying its too cold to snow, I said your having a laff, its +5c out there!

Anyway it was a vague reminded of what a decent easterly can feel like, (even with uppers of 5/6/7c).

Edited January 9, 2018 by snowray

[knocker]

Not a bad comparison with last night's anomalies.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, snowray said:

Last couple of days it felt colder than what it was, local pub landlord today was saying its too cold to snow, I said your having a laff, its +5c out there!

Anyway it was a vague reminded of what a decent easterly can feel like, (even with uppers of 5/6/7c).

worst expression ever that, mostly here too warm for snow

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, knocker said:

A glance at NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies this evening to see what they are indicating over the next 14 days. They have been pretty consistent of late.

In the 6- 10 range we are looking at a very amplified pattern. Upstream there is an Aleutian low and trough, a ridge western North America into the Arctic, and vortex lobe Hudson Bay with a cold trough down eastern NA.  Downstream a negatively tilted trough/low associated with the vortex running south east to the UK whilst the European high pressure ridges strongly north west into Svalbard. Further east the other vortex lobe northern Russia with associated trough.

All of this adds up to a strong upper westerly flow leaving North America around some positive anomalies in the western Atlantic but the flow abates and diverges in the eastern Atlantic as it hits the trough/ridge amplification. Thus systems tracking east will tend to slow down appreciably and perhaps, with this split energy flow, some tending to slide south east with the trough running a fair way south. Definitely something the det runs will need to sort. Temps generally a little below average.

In the ext period some major pattern changes upstream with the west Pacific trough moving east into western North America and the cold trough is no more with some very positive temp anomalies now residing in the east.  Downstrean still the trough in the vicinity of the UK but much of the amplification has gone with the weakening of the ridge, albeit not complete agreement on handling the low pressure over Iceland and the weakening ridge into the Arctic, ergo a much more straightforward westerly upper flow across the Atlantic to the UK, This would portend more unsettled weather with temps still a tad below average.

excellent post as ever knocks

although why one character persists in using the 'confused' emoji seemingly on every post you make (and others) is rather confusing in itself! lol.

[knocker]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

although why one character persists in using the 'confused' emoji seemingly on every post you make (and others) is rather confusing in itself! lol.

I think it may well be due to the fact that many find it difficult to adjust mentally to the lack of spin when they wander away from the main ramping thread mushy.

[Mapantz]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think winds are supposed to go more southerly tomorrow, should be milder in the south especially at 8/10c with cloud breaking to allow sunny intervals but then fog appears to become the main problem further south after midweek as winds fall light and where mist / fog /  low cloud persists it will be cold further s / e..lasting into the weekend 

It's already 8.4°C down here, Frosty. Parts of the far South West are in to double figures.

[knocker]

The irresistible force against the immovable object

But wait

Edited January 9, 2018 by knocker

[Weather-history]

Blocks can be stubborn to give way but i can't help feel a bit of straw clutching over it is appearing in the model analyses with each run. 

[Audaxian]

Netweather Day 8-10 "forecasts" teasing potential wintry showers for Uckfield during dark hours. Nothing during the day, and I just know by the time we get there they'll have disappeared... Always do.

 

On a semi-related note, does anyone know whether those forecasts are updated on a routine frequency? I know the 7 Day Forecasts get updated during the day, but I've never got a feel for whether or not there's set times I should be looking for the updates.

[knocker]

Without looking at too much detail for next week for obvious reasons, but being guided by the recent anomalies and the trend with the det. runs, there certainly could be some inclement wintry weather next week which would include gales and snow.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Paul

[jvenge]

30 minutes ago, knocker said:

Without looking at too much detail for next week for obvious reasons, but being guided by the recent anomalies and the trend with the det. runs, there certainly could be some inclement wintry weather next week which would include gales and snow.

Quite impressive looking charts for next week from the west. If it is something as modeled, I imagine even my location might taste that setup. Those types of uppers, coming from the west, reaching so far into Europe. 

Quite impressive. If it happens, of course.

The EPS mean wind charts for this morning were also quite facinating. Not often you two cold from both directions like that.

[Paul]

More posts removed, this thread is not for personal digs at people.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Audaxian said:

Netweather Day 8-10 "forecasts" teasing potential wintry showers for Uckfield during dark hours. Nothing during the day, and I just know by the time we get there they'll have disappeared... Always do.

 

On a semi-related note, does anyone know whether those forecasts are updated on a routine frequency? I know the 7 Day Forecasts get updated during the day, but I've never got a feel for whether or not there's set times I should be looking for the updates.

If its a  location forecast it will update everytime the GFS is run, 4 times a day, if I was going to use location forecasts (I only use them as a guide to find out what met office models are showing) then I would use Met Office or BBC ones.

[SLEETY]

I’m tired of chasing this Easterly.Even if a remote chance it came off it’s not exactly a deep fetched one.

Look nw the air looks quite cold and some members will see snow like in December I would imagine

[knocker]

Quote

Abstract

To explore the mechanisms linking Arctic sea-ice loss to changes in mid-latitude surface temperatures, we conduct idealized modeling experiments using an intermediate general circulation model and with sea-ice loss confined to the Atlantic or Pacific sectors of the Arctic (Barents-Kara or Chukchi-Bering Seas). Extending previous findings, there are opposite effects on the winter stratospheric polar vortex for both large-magnitude (late twenty-first century) and moderate-magnitude sea-ice loss. Accordingly, there are opposite tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) responses for moderate-magnitude sea-ice loss. However, there are similar strength negative AO responses for large-magnitude sea-ice loss, suggesting that tropospheric mechanisms become relatively more important than stratospheric mechanisms as the sea-ice loss magnitude increases. The mid-latitude surface temperature response for each loss region and magnitude can be understood as the combination of an ‘indirect’ part induced by the large-scale circulation (AO) response, and a residual ‘direct’ part that is local to the loss region.

See research thread for link

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

See research thread for link

Very Interesting, I was always poo-pooing those that said that high sea ice loss was good for blocking, thinking that how can that be when we lose more the last 20 years than any period before that in memory and we have had the least blocking, whoops - I will leave it to the experts next time.

[ArHu3]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Very Interesting, I was always poo-pooing those that said that high sea ice loss was good for blocking, thinking that how can that be when we lose more the last 20 years than any period before that in memory and we have had the least blocking, whoops - I will leave it to the experts next time.

I'm pretty sure the warm arctic leaves us with toothless blocks with just a 2-3 degrees too warm northerlies and even warmer northwesterlies when we get these blocks. Not Eastern US and Eastern Europe or Asia, the end up on the right side with continental flow and get all the arctic cold but for us it's close but no sigar 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Short lived, but wonder if these beasts are possible in the modern erâ

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

I'm pretty sure the warm arctic leaves us with toothless blocks with just a 2-3 degrees too warm northerlies and even warmer northwesterlies when we get these blocks. Not Eastern US and Eastern Europe or Asia, the end up on the right side with continental flow and get all the arctic cold but for us it's close but no sigar 

TBF I was more talking about sea ice feeding back into blocking later - a bit like the Siberian snow advance, I'm sure the warming has some effect but dec 2010 proves, if you get a direct arctic feed with a proper GH, they will still deliver.

Which leads me on to my next point,

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Short lived, but wonder if these beasts are possible in the modern erâ

Absolutely IMO, unless you believe you cant get that synoptic anymore, which people thought pre Feb 2009, then you could still potentially get even an 87, theres no way SST's would make any difference at all as its a short tsea track and we know even in these crap winters, the continent has still experienced some record breaking temperatures (-)

Edited January 9, 2018 by feb1991blizzard