Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

There is a strong rumour doing the rounds that the NW Biascope, a machine used to measure confirmation bias, has temporarily been withdrawn for some structural alterations after going into meltdown after a recent unprecedented workload. It is hoped that it can be easily fixed but industry sources are doubtful.

[tinybill]

7 hours ago, Spurry said:

BBC going for a jet stream across the country at the end of the week with LPs attacking from the Atlantic , no indication of anything cold

just watched  bbc  still going mild end  of week cold and foggy for first 2 days with a  frost in places when the cloud clears

[knocker]

An eye has to be kept on Sunday/Monday for a very active frontal system which may bring severe gales and some heavy snow in the north Very early days but perhaps worth watching over the next couple of days.

[snowblizzard]

No very cold or snowy weather into Southern UK until we start to see something much colder into Western Europe.

At the moment, that's just not looking likely!

 

[Hammer50]

Why oh why do exacta weather continue to keep saying we are on the verge of an ice age and we are going to get snow next week I wish they would go away and that's putting it politely.

 

[ArHu3]

Sometimes I think some people in the mod thread believe that the weather outcome is dependent on the outcome of the discussion there?they are all upset with knocker because he always writes off any possibel cold spell 

Edited January 8, 2018 by ArHu3

[Day 10]

Nevermind throw the towel in, I'm ready to blow up the bathroom! Chase after chase, year after year eventually starts to get to you! Living in the North isn't all it's cracked up to be for snow depending on location. Here on the Wirral nearly 5 years for the elusive lying snow, others around the UK suffering even longer than that! Yes still plenty of this Winter left but it's just crap, maybe the fact that it's Monday morning and work beckons again for another year may have something to do with my downbeat mood. Oh well I'm sure I will check the models again tonight, Grrrrr!!!

[knocker]

Anyway time for a quick break from the moaning and a quick cheer up as poor Sidney was hunched against the cold yesterday morning.

[Yarmy]

How many op runs actually had a full-blown convective Easterly with cold 850s and low enough heights on the continent?  One or two GEM runs? There were a few cold but dry ECM runs, same for the UKMO.

The trouble is that the handful of eye-catching runs become the baseline. From there, everything is going to be a downgrade.

[Paul]

This isn't the thread for personal digs, so can we stop it now please. Fwiw, @knocker - the issue you specifically brought up was dealt with swiftly by the team, I contacted you personally but you didn't reply, so if you have further comments, you're welcome to reply to the message I sent, rather than using the public forum, 

Everyone on here has a different personality, perhaps we'd be better embracing that fact rather than using it against people when it suits. As has already been mentioned too, the report function is there for anyone to use should they see an issue.

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, Paul said:

This isn't the thread for personal digs, so can we stop it now please. Fwiw, @knocker - the issue you specifically brought up was dealt with swiftly by the team, I contacted you personally but you didn't reply, so if you have further comments, you're welcome to reply to the message I sent, rather than using the public forum, 

Everyone on here has a different personality, perhaps we'd be better embracing that fact rather than using it against people when it suits. As has already been mentioned too, the report function is there for anyone to use should they see an issue.

I appreciate that Paul and I had no intention of mentioning it again but I felt that another post this morning required a response if only to present an alternative view, I didn't reply to your sticky as I didn't think it required one as my views are well known to you in any case.

[starstream]

The models may not be showing us what we want to see ,it's the chase that gets most of us on here.

I still believe that some surprises are on offer this winter.

I cannot back that up with evidence, but then this isn't the thread for that.

[SLEETY]

We must get a deep cold Easterly again,surely.

The METO was close a day back with -12 hpa knocking on the door ,now it’s not so keen.

This winter is beginning to become frustrating,how long have have we been chasing a decent cold spell,only for it to be pushed back.

Been a good winter for the Ski resorts though with the lack of mild SW winds.Guess we need to head there to get our snow fix.

 

 

[Seasonality]

Actual photo of two regular posters in the 'serious' model thread. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

58 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Actual photo of two regular posters in the 'serious' model thread. 

 

Wait, how did you get that photo of me?!

[Seasonal Trim]

168 browsing but only 5 posts in 5 mins in the MOD thread. Says it all really! 

[Yarmy]

The UKMO wants to destroy Iceland:

Revenge for the Euro 2016 humiliation.

 

[Weather-history]

Sums up the high to the east 

[Number 23]

Cold from the NW?

Non alcoholic beer, anyone? 

[shotski]

Where would we be without the thermal gradient 

 

[knocker]

A glance at NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies this evening to see what they are indicating over the next 14 days. They have been pretty consistent of late.

In the 6- 10 range we are looking at a very amplified pattern. Upstream there is an Aleutian low and trough, a ridge western North America into the Arctic, and vortex lobe Hudson Bay with a cold trough down eastern NA.  Downstream a negatively tilted trough/low associated with the vortex running south east to the UK whilst the European high pressure ridges strongly north west into Svalbard. Further east the other vortex lobe northern Russia with associated trough.

All of this adds up to a strong upper westerly flow leaving North America around some positive anomalies in the western Atlantic but the flow abates and diverges in the eastern Atlantic as it hits the trough/ridge amplification. Thus systems tracking east will tend to slow down appreciably and perhaps, with this split energy flow, some tending to slide south east with the trough running a fair way south. Definitely something the det runs will need to sort. Temps generally a little below average.

In the ext period some major pattern changes upstream with the west Pacific trough moving east into western North America and the cold trough is no more with some very positive temp anomalies now residing in the east.  Downstrean still the trough in the vicinity of the UK but much of the amplification has gone with the weakening of the ridge, albeit not complete agreement on handling the low pressure over Iceland and the weakening ridge into the Arctic, ergo a much more straightforward westerly upper flow across the Atlantic to the UK, This would portend more unsettled weather with temps still a tad below average.

Edited January 8, 2018 by knocker

[tinybill]

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 

i  know  its a  long  way off but things could change about 192 hr to some what colder  weather !!

[Country Boy]

Just done another look around for cold weather. Austria / Switzerland are  + 8/9 c  this week

Apart from going way north, Europe is  quite mild for January.

There is a outside chance with Moscow showing a - 6  this week.

But we can't seem to tap into that.

[ArHu3]

47 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

why here and not in the mod thread?

[Mapantz]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

why here and not in the mod thread?

It would be considered off-topic, of course.