Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[jvenge]

19 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Don't quite see what is so tragic??

Because an otherwise good thread is totally trashed. And its rinse and repeat with the next pied piper. So it can't even be called a learning exercise.

Edited January 4, 2018 by jvenge

[DAVID SNOW]

13 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Because an otherwise good thread is totally trashed. And its rinse and repeat with the next pied piper. So it can't even be called a learning exercise.

Again, cant see the tragedy, a bit melodramatic at times for sure, but its never going to resemble the canteen at the Met Office, is it ?

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Again, cant see the tragedy, a bit melodramatic at times for sure, but its never going to resemble the canteen at the Met Office, is it ?

I believe its an expression.

I actually don't mind the melodramatics :-). It is the inventing what future runs will show and trashing models that don't play along that grates. And inevitability after that happens you will get the usual dimwits lambasting people for ever thinking they could trust them there computers and teleconnections.  Followed by the others in denial, maintaining they can switch back and life will be worth living again. And then some sarcastic swine comes to this thread and moans.

See. I like melodrama.

[pureasthedriven]

38 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It has rained every day this year!

Down here in my locale (Gatwick), apart from two hours of random settling and then disappearing snow two years ago, we’ve not seen any lying snow since March 2013 and barely any FALLING snow - wet, powder or otherwise - in the same timeframe. That’s  bordering on five years. Five! 

[DAVID SNOW]

13 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I believe its an expression.

I actually don't mind the melodramatics :-). It is the inventing what future runs will show and trashing models that don't play along that grates. And inevitability after that happens you will get the usual dimwits lambasting people for ever thinking they could trust them there computers and teleconnections.  Followed by the others in denial, maintaining they can switch back and life will be worth living again. And then some sarcastic swine comes to this thread and moans.

See. I like melodrama.

"Dimwits and sarcastic swine" You obviously have a deep seated understanding in how to "Trash" a thread.

[alexisj9]

Nice to see GFS finally seeing what the other models have been toying with. I now expect the ECM to start inching back towards this out put tomorrow. GFS will stick to or improve on the 18z

[jvenge]

6 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

"Dimwits and sarcastic swine" You obviously have a deep seated understanding in how to "Trash" a thread.

The correct thread ;-)

[JoeShmoe]

10 hours ago, jvenge said:

Bah. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The gullible beleiving the same rampers each time and the rampers inventing what the models will show on the next runs. They get a pass for it each time as well.

 

This ^^^^

Even the GEM was getting bigged up !

I just find it wholly amusing, and no doubt today at T=284 one model will show a northerly and off they all go again, like lemmings to the cliff. Have to say there were a few who constantly didnt go in for it so credit to them, decent easterlies are like hens teeth these days, so just not worth buying into unless all 3 show it, within the T+96 timeframe as so many very small mesoscale features can throw the whole thing off

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC likely right this time, warm and windy

[joggs]

8 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Nice to see GFS finally seeing what the other models have been toying with. I now expect the ECM to start inching back towards this out put tomorrow. GFS will stick to or improve on the 18z

You'll be fully disappointed then this morning.

Can't believe people were getting excited about the pub run because it showed what they wanted.

[knocker]

I take it you have just seen the latest EC46 update Sidney?

[snowblizzard]

9 hours ago, pureasthedriven said:

Down here in my locale (Gatwick), apart from two hours of random settling and then disappearing snow two years ago, we’ve not seen any lying snow since March 2013 and barely any FALLING snow - wet, powder or otherwise - in the same timeframe. That’s  bordering on five years. Five! 

Sign of the changing times.

Snowless South of England is the future!

At least until the next colder cycle.

Edited January 5, 2018 by snowblizzard

[northwestsnow]

LOL I just penned a resignation letter and the laptop froze -

Am i alone in thinking its just a lost cause chasing decent cold and snow in the current cycle of mild winters? (ie snow that lasts more than a day or two).

It just seems if anything can go wrong , it will.

Yes, there will be still winters that break the monotony - but lets call a spade a spade here- the metoffice are predicting our climate is going to get wetter and warmer-and so are the oceans ...

Is it cyclical ? I hope so, but i'm not so sure...

[Weather-history]

Only problem is can the ECM run be trusted.......

[Weather-history]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL I just penned a resignation letter and the laptop froze -

Am i alone in thinking its just a lost cause chasing decent cold and snow in the current cycle of mild winters? (ie snow that lasts more than a day or two).

It just seems if anything can go wrong , it will.

Yes, there will be still winters that break the monotony - but lets call a spade a spade here- the metoffice are predicting our climate is going to get wetter and warmer-and so are the oceans ...

Is it cyclical ? I hope so, but i'm not so sure...

2012-13 was only 5 years ago and 2014-15 wasn't that bad, it was better than a lot of the winters of 1990s-2000s.

I be interested to know if parts of the Midlands had bigger snowfalls during this winter thus far than during winter 2009-10.  

Edited January 5, 2018 by Weather-history

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

2012-13 was only 5 years ago and 2014-15 wasn't that bad, it we better than a lot of the winters of 1990s-2000s.

I be interested to know if parts of the Midlands had bigger snowfalls during this winter thus far than during winter 2009-10.  

Mate, its bleak.

Like i said, i'm hopeful its cyclical, and strongly linked to the AMO- we'll see when it flips negative..

[Number 23]

Well looks like those wanting a decent weather event are now looking at mid-late Jan for something to set up at the earliest. 

I remember the days in situations like this week, I'd run off and tell people we had severe weather coming, as if I was in the know   Made to look a prat quite a few times when we were sitting under warm rain a week later. 

Hoping we get something benign while we await the next developments. 

 

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mate, its bleak.

Like i said, i'm hopeful its cyclical, and strongly linked to the AMO- we'll see when it flips negative..

Get another hobby, seriously.

If you are going to have your emotions dictated or controlled by something you can't control then you need to get out. 

[EllyTech]

Too much emphasis is placed on output from the model gods too far in advance. On the amateur side of forecasting, people are not responsible for sometimes wrongly interpreting upcoming weather, the models are. Models cannot possibly ingest every tiny bit of data required to resolve -  in high resolution (which is what our small Isles require) - the chaos of the atmosphere. Model discussion should not be looked upon as a forecasting thread IMO.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It seems while the ECM has been slated over its failure, GEM has walked away scot free ?

Edited January 5, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[The Wolf]

Looks like game over for foreseeable future. Before we know it winter will be over. A shame as it looked so positive a few days ago. 

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

Looks like game over for foreseeable future. Before we know it winter will be over. A shame as it looked so positive a few days ago. 

That would be around a week though, new chances for next weekend 

[Carl46Wrexham]

14 hours ago, mulzy said:

What's the doom and gloom about?  There could be a frost or two in the next week or so - something to look forward to...

 

Will at least see a bit of ice from the waterlogged fields freezing over maybe...

Ah who am I kidding? Since mid December it's been pretty lousy fare here..cold rain don't cut it.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Can't say I am overly surprised at the turn of events...

Disappointed? Not really...just a sense of resigned acceptance.

When will people start learning to stop getting so overexcited at day 10 jam tomorrow charts?

Treat Jam Tomorrow charts with scepticism and cynicism and you won't go wrong.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

2012-13 was only 5 years ago and 2014-15 wasn't that bad, it was better than a lot of the winters of 1990s-2000s.

I be interested to know if parts of the Midlands had bigger snowfalls during this winter thus far than during winter 2009-10.  

I can tell you for a fact that the snow that fell here on 10th Dec 17 was deeper than any fall we had at any point during Winter 2009/10.