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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
27 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Fearing a very SNOWY spell, as troughs struggle to make it eastwards, stalling over the Midlands, HEAVY SNOW likely, in what looks like an VERY WINTRY January

Just a bit of fun....You know me.....SOUNDS MUCH BETTER THOUGH :D

Yeah like the sound of that but I think it’s going ti#s up for snow and cold after the weekend cold snap though. Not getting on that roller coaster again........... honestly! ?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
27 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Yeah like the sound of that but I think it’s going ti#s up for snow and cold after the weekend cold snap though. Not getting on that roller coaster again........... honestly! ?

Maybe so, but just remember how things can turn around in just 48 to 72hrs regarding the model output, they have in the past and they will again......:hi:

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

I knew gfs would get people wondering. I think next gfs will be even more like the old ecm. Plus I think the models will start moving back tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
30 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I knew gfs would get people wondering. I think next gfs will be even more like the old ecm. Plus I think the models will start moving back tomorrow.

Aye, at which point the GFS suddenly becomes the form model and the perceived bias/faults with t'other models will be trotted out.  Not been in the MAD thread since early yesterday evening, do i take the plunge!?!?

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
5 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Looks like a benign end to UKWinter after all, hopefully with early Spring. Concern about water levels. Some resovoirs runn at 33%.   2018 drought Year !

Indeed, as the eastern side of the United States gets plastered with feet of snow we can look forward to some nice benign crisp dry weather which I am very much looking forward to after all the rain we've had recently,bring it on I say!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
26 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Indeed, as the eastern side of the United States gets plastered with feet of snow we can look forward to some nice benign crisp dry weather which I am very much looking forward to after all the rain we've had recently,bring it on I say!

Not sure I agree about benign/crisp? looks the opposite to me for the Midlands, could be looking at one of the wettest January's on record, high to the east a bad thing

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Either be cold enough for snow next week (which, looking at the models currently, seems unlikely), otherwise any approaching fronts from the West next week can just go away!

West please.png

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
55 minutes ago, swebby said:

Aye, at which point the GFS suddenly becomes the form model and the perceived bias/faults with t'other models will be trotted out.  Not been in the MAD thread since early yesterday evening, do i take the plunge!?!?

Still the same in there.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
54 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not sure I agree about benign/crisp? looks the opposite to me for the Midlands, could be looking at one of the wettest January's on record, high to the east a bad thing

With all due respect, it would help if you had evidence to back up your prediction?

This is the 12z out to a week on Tuesday in terms of accumulated rainfall. 

GFSOPUK12_276_18.png

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
8 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Deep cold in the US inevitably brings deep puddles to the UK .

Ain't inevitable

Whilst the UK had the severe winter of 1978-79, so did the USA

Whilst we had the springtime in December 2015, they had almost summer!

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

well after the last few days of cold possibly snowy weather on the way the wife drew up a list of indoor jobs for me to do, haha, like they are going to happen now its going to be mild and perfect outdoor usable weather, guess she will be waiting another year, lol

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

well after the last few days of cold possibly snowy weather on the way the wife drew up a list of indoor jobs for me to do, haha, like they are going to happen now its going to be mild and perfect outdoor usable weather, guess she will be waiting another year, lol

GFS the boss! EC won't show the E'ly tonight, Atlantic to break through with a whimper Wednesday

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS the boss! EC won't show the E'ly tonight, Atlantic to break through with a whimper Wednesday

thats exactly what i have told her, lol, please dont tell her otherwise. haha.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Similar to this, no snow seen in my location off this, Atlantic broke through on Wed 17th with a whimper and not even a flake of snow, as expected the chart is in the Xmas pudding

 

archives-2016-2-14-12-0.pngarchives-2016-2-17-12-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

definitely trended towards GFS, the ECM yesterday and day before looked very wrong, now moved in line with GFS and normal January

ECM1-168.GIF?04-0

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

If Sidney pops into the MOD thread I wouldn't like to guarantee his safety. Even Bambi got shot this evening.

Oddly the cache problem I've been having whereby I keep seeing different charts to some others has cleared up this evening. What I'm seeing and the commentary in the MOD thread seem aligned again :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

I don't think I've ever been in an environment where the old addage 'a little knowledge is dangerous' is more appropriate. Have people throwing their weight around in the model thread as if they know the lot. I expect age is a significant factor. I know it's an amateur forum and people are learning, but a little humility wouldn't go amiss. There are between 5 and 10 posters worth following, sadly more often than not they are being insulted themselves. A real shame...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

Just wondering if I'm ok to post in here or will this post disappear too? I make 2 posts in the MAD thread and both get removed. Then again I suppose I'm not a daily poster or of great knowledge so my posts are seen as irrelevant in there. Won't be posting again if that's how it is

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