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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Why are folk obsessed about easterlies on the other thread. Even if we get one,and we probably won't anyway,have they not seen the temps on mainland and in eastern Europe?? Even Warsaw and Moscow are above freezing!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

What's your point? I'm not a rabid coldie, but if quite a few models are showing an easterly flow, it is most certainly under the remit of the thread. Not that I agree with the binning of ensemble suits and whole models, which currently is ongoing in there.

Not sure what your point is re Eastern Europe. It rained last night, therefore it can't possibly be sunny come Sunday? Are you suggesting the models haven't factored this in and that as any easterly comes (an if i might add) that it won't be cold? Are you complaining its not as cold as it might be if it were already cold elsewhere?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Ok, lets ramp up this latest chart from GEM. Classic 47 set up. Deep cold over Britain, low pressure over France. Feed of moist mild air into Eastern Europe , clashes with the cold flow and produces a conveyer belt of snow  across the Southern North Sea  into Blighty and Northern France. Of course in 1947, the Easterly set up started much later in the winter season but the low over France never moved for weeks and  produced with deepest and most widespread snowfall across England and Wales of the last century. Ramp over !

 C

GEMOPEU00_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
10 hours ago, SW1988 said:

Why are folk obsessed about easterlies on the other thread. Even if we get one,and we probably won't anyway,have they not seen the temps on mainland and in eastern Europe?? Even Warsaw and Moscow are above freezing!!

 

yes you are right. its looking cold and raw at the worst currently, theres no deep cold pool to tap into.

so many are being lead up the garden path yet again.

but it must be said that the great beasterlies of the past often took a while to establish after a couple of weeks of messy synoptic charts which dallied with high pressure somewhere to the north of the uk. there must be a strong chance that a beasterly proper will develop later this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Since I only enjoy significant cold weather events, I've been watching this develop with interest.

Gut instinct is we'll see a gradual convergence over the next couple of days, and a watered-down/curtailed variant of the Euro's will be the net result. From there is anyone's guess, but I'm unconvinced this initial phase will bring much of note other than noticeably lower temps than of late.

Whilst GFS vs Euros is more likely to favour the Euros, wherever there's significant disagreement, the difference is normally split. Blocking too robust from ECM, energy too vigorous from GFS in the +144 area. I'm an absolute novice (even after 12+ years of lurking!), but that seems to me the most likely outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County

Excellent viewing over on the model output page..been watching it evolve for the past few days..but suddenly seems to be taking a turn for the worst having read the last few posts/opinions on there...??...

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Still too early to say, but I think the halfway house solution is starting to develop which, when it comes to Easterlies and their all-or-nothing nature, isn't good news in the short term.

Shame, but not totally unexpected given the expert opinions on here of late.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Looks to me like we'll just get a slightly chilly High, but that in itself is a welcome change from the interminable wind and rain.

Edited by Buzz
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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Another classic failed Easterly!

But, I expected nothing else!

On the bright side, at least this one looks like slipping away at 144+, and with model disagreement to temper expectations.

Much better than a cross-model agreed straight Easterly with -10 uppers at +72/96 which goes up in smoke! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
32 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Another classic failed Easterly!

But, I expected nothing else!

have a feeling GFS may have modeled this the best, UKMO following GFS on 12Z's bringing normal January weather by Tuesday, expect EC to trend towards GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

I'm looking at different models again. A few of mine still show an easterly. They are also clearly a "downgrade".

Maybe if I keep refreshing.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Much pouring of oil on to troubled waters by the "knowledgable" posters. Why they are still so poular I don't know. They've led more trips up the garden path than my dear old mum on a showery washing day.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
18 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Much pouring of oil on to troubled waters by the "knowledgable" posters. Why they are still so poular I don't know. They've led more trips up the garden path than my dear old mum on a showery washing day.

A bit unfair as some of them do post some relevant comments however as you say Cold is their priority and sometimes can often let them down a bit. 

18 minutes ago, davehsug said:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

This could slow the Atlantic down. 

Warming America could mean a cooling Europe. 

0678064D-05F1-41D5-AB53-4184F0A572C2.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Pretty good T156 EPS mean with a light SSW flow and average temps. Oh my giddy aunt. And to boot no trigger slider, or glider, shortwaves waiting in the wings.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Pretty good T156 EPS mean with a light SSW flow and average temps. Oh my giddy aunt. And to boot no trigger slider, or glider, shortwaves waiting in the wings.

Keep taking the happy pills :D:D

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

Good evening all, well after reading posts in the model thread for a few days now that cold is comming, i look through the forecast from a imby perspective and there is not a jot of cold weather comming, lowest temp of 4c on saturday before temps start to rise again for midweek.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

Good evening all, well after reading posts in the model thread for a few days now that cold is comming, i look through the forecast from a imby perspective and there is not a jot of cold weather comming, lowest temp of 4c on saturday before temps start to rise again for midweek.

on GFS yes that will happen, GFS is suggesting cooler weekend then normal mild from Tues

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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex

Just been speaking to my brother in law who lives in Grimsby Onterio

One hour from Toronto and its -6c  mid afternoon with six inches of snow

On the ground. They are now being  warned of a powerful nor Easter in the next  few days

with a low of - 25c and a wind chill of -40c....now that's cold

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, bonkers or not, I'll no' be torturing myself with tonight's 18Z...Life's too short as it is, and model-induced hypertension is the last thing I need!

Night all!:good:

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