Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Matthew.]

Just heard from a friend the Sidney’s of Helsinki are seeing something coming afoot

[knocker]

One can't help feeling that having all 51 members freely available in the EPS extended period is a massive retrograde step. It allows fertile minds to expand and search for even more esoteric routes to the Holy Grail. it's very similar to planting a bigger and much more intricate maze in the grounds.

Edited December 22, 2017 by knocker

[That ECM]

i really can't see anything of note from a cold perspective, apart from some favourable spots, for the foreseeable. Talk of easterlies in the mod thread is straw clutching I feel. I would love to be wrong but it's just how I see it. 

[swebby]

54 minutes ago, That ECM said:

i really can't see anything of note from a cold perspective, apart from some favourable spots, for the foreseeable. Talk of easterlies in the mod thread is straw clutching I feel. I would love to be wrong but it's just how I see it. 

If Knockers post actually verified, i'm not sure an Easterly would be a desirable thing anyway!??

7 hours ago, knocker said:

Just a reminder that the 'trend is your friend'.

 

[That ECM]

29 minutes ago, swebby said:

If Knockers post actually verified, i'm not sure an Easterly would be a desirable thing anyway!??

 

That post of knockers is a result of not having an easterly. If there was one that chart would look very different but it is what it is due to current output. 

Edited December 22, 2017 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

Fast turning into another horror shows for coldies.

If you live in the south and havent seen a flake i'd stick a long film on because if your snowless now i think the odds on staying snowless out to mid jan at the earliest are shortening by the day!!

No doubt in my mind winter will come in april when its absolutely pointless and any snow will melt by dinner time.

Hope im wrong mind.

[That ECM]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fast turning into another horror shows for coldies.

If you live in the south and havent seen a flake i'd stick a long film on because if your snowless now i think the odds on staying snowless out to mid jan at the earliest are shortening by the day!!

No doubt in my mind winter will come in april when its absolutely pointless and any snow will melt by dinner time.

Hope im wrong mind.

Mid Jan possible but in weather terms along time. From mid Jan onwards anything could happen but it's a guess. I spent a few days in Lapland recently and had a good snow fix seeing a foot of fresh snow fall in 24 hours. It's just a fact that here we see very little and only on rare occasions do we get a good cold spell but when it happens it makes it all the more special. I took this when there was a bit of light!!

Edited December 22, 2017 by That ECM

[Mokidugway]

Drizzle  Christmas here would be nice 

Edited December 22, 2017 by Mokidugway

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Mid Jan possible but in weather terms along time. From mid Jan onwards anything could happen but it's a guess. I spent a few days in Lapland recently and had a good snow fix seeing a foot of fresh snow fall in 24 hours. It's just a fact that here we see very little and only on rare occasions do we get a good cold spell but when it happens it makes it all the more special. 

Agree 100% ...but no one is going to tell me these cold spells are not getting fewer and far between..

Im 45 and i can assure you the late 70s right through to 1987 saw loads of cold snowy spells round these parts..

In fact i bet there was more snow here between 1978 and 1987 (9 years) than there has been from 1987 to 2017 ( 30 years).

Easterlies in particular have become almost extinct ...

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agree 100% ...but no one is going to tell me these cold spells are not getting fewer and far between..

Im 45 and i can assure you the late 70s right through to 1987 saw loads of cold snowy spells round these parts..

In fact i bet there was more snow here between 1978 and 1987 (9 years) than there has been from 1987 to 2017 ( 30 years).

Easterlies in particular have become almost extinct ...

I would agree although I moved from the Cotswolds to here 20 years ago. But you are right I am sure.

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fast turning into another horror shows for coldies.

If you live in the south and havent seen a flake i'd stick a long film on because if your snowless now i think the odds on staying snowless out to mid jan at the earliest are shortening by the day!!

No doubt in my mind winter will come in april when its absolutely pointless and any snow will melt by dinner time.

Hope im wrong mind.

Oh I don't know, I remember getting stuck on a train during the blizzard of late April 1981

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

i really can't see anything of note from a cold perspective, apart from some favourable spots, for the foreseeable. Talk of easterlies in the mod thread is straw clutching I feel. I would love to be wrong but it's just how I see it. 

Yes i think you are correct.

Someone on TWO made a very good post about the 'death of the mid winter easterly' ...its no co incidence that the overwhelming snow/cold drought that has been going on since 1987 (with the occasional blip) is connected to the lack of east winds during winter.

Anyway...12z coming out..lets hope as many as poss can get some snow next week ...:)

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Oh I don't know, I remember getting stuck on a train during the blizzard of late April 1981

You know what i mean knocks

[ribster]

Christ, same couple of posters slashing their wrists as usual. I know it's a weather forum, but some need to get a grip of themselves!

[ribster]

Duplicate

Edited December 22, 2017 by ribster

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, ribster said:

Christ, same couple of posters slashing their wrists as usual. I know it's a weather forum, but some need to get a grip of themselves!

Whose slashing their wrists?

Just calling it as it is..

[ribster]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whose slashing their wrists?

Just calling it as it is..

My point exactly....

[northwestsnow]

23 minutes ago, ribster said:

My point exactly....

Would be nice to see some prolonged cold during jan or feb...

Hopefully the models will change/flip- occasionally they do

[78/79]

54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whose slashing their wrists?

Just calling it as it is..

Couldn't agree more , I think most people get hacked off with the mind numbing ,drab mediocrity of our climate. Most people that I speak to agree that a bright , cold crisp , winters day is far better than the cr..p we are usually saddled with. 

Having spent about  25 years out of 41 working outside, I agree that winters back in the 70's and 80's were a lot colder  than they are now.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Fast turning into another horror shows for coldies.

If you live in the south and havent seen a flake i'd stick a long film on because if your snowless now i think the odds on staying snowless out to mid jan at the earliest are shortening by the day!!

No doubt in my mind winter will come in april when its absolutely pointless and any snow will melt by dinner time.

Hope im wrong mind.

This December has seen several potent cold snaps/spells with snow for many. Nothing like some recent December months that have truly been dire for cold. It’s week 3 of winter, 9 weeks left to deliver the goods that coldies want. Plenty of chance, I’d say. A period of normal Atlantic weather was always going to happen, at some point, it is the UK, after all.

[northwestsnow]

GEFS this morning 

zonal as far as the eye can see!

and really wet..yuk.

[snowfish1]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS this morning 

zonal as far as the eye can see!

and really wet..yuk.

Horrible yep I absolutely hate this kind of weather. Old people revel in it the sad old things snow starved South East looks like remaining famished 

Edited December 23, 2017 by snowfish1

[snowfish1]

On 22 December 2017 at 07:34, Atleastitwillbemild said:

No. Frankly.

I've been watching the weather models for nearly 15 years and I can't count the times people on weather watching sites get all excited by the "gut feelings" they have about how its all "just different" this time of year and how "exciting" it is and how they "have a feeling that something is brewing" etc, etc. Let me tell you this now: 

Its never different. The only thing brewing in our grey, miserable autumnal winters are low after low after despicable, detestable Atlantic low pressure systems and days on end of damp, grey anti-cyclonic gloom. Once you've been watching weather for as long as I have that is the only "feeling" you'll learn to expect come winter. Its always the same. The odd year may come along about once a decade to buck the trend slightly. But the status quo has to bend so far out of place and stretch so far to the extreme, atmospherically, to even allow the possibility of it that any freak aberration from the norm is followed by 2 or 3 years of just as extreme zonal, Atlantic Hell as punishment and payback. 
Your "feeling" is based on nothing but naive wishful thinking, exposure to snowy scenes on Victorian Christmas cards you've been given at work and sentimental notions of how nice and lovely it would be. Trust me your "feeling" will soon be dashed to pieces very quickly and quite thoroughly by the stark reality of just how truly sh*t this miserably island's climate is. 

Stick around. You'll learn. 

Remind not to suggest you go into the field of

counselling 

[knocker]

It's good to see my status has been raised this morning to, "sad old thing".

[winterof79]

Probably a snow event next week but still depression reigns?