Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[karyo]

43 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

its looking like there will be no 'bad' winter, no repeat of say 78-9 , id have thought the best coldies can hope for is a 2 week freeze late jan/early feb. many would welcome that, but tbh i doubt we will even get half of that.

I doubt it will be continuously mild till the end of winter. Mild overall of course but still with a couple of cold episodes. Ian Pennell's winter forecast is doing well so far and goes for a cold spell late January and another one in Feb.

[Ali1977]

Just to stop any wrist slashing - still chance of blocking mid Jan - which in my eyes is the best time to get a cold spell - colder continent and no heat in the sun. 

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK Firm signals for a change to more unsettled weather through Xmas period, with potential for wet & windy conditions beyond Xmas Day; this sort of broad set-up likely on into early Jan. Long range models (GloSea/ECMWF) lean to more blocked outcomes into mid-Jan.

Still a long way out and no idea where blocking is showing, hopefully to our North. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

Wish I lived in USA ,sometimes.Must be exciting if your a cold weather fan and know frigid -32 hpa or lower is heading your way soon.

yet in uk when early-mid jan is the coldest part of winter when below -15 hpa can happen , no sign whatever of any Easterly outbreak, or Northerly ,how predictable.

[SLEETY]

Glosea ec46 predicted similar last winter,never happened,expect milder and zonal throughout jan,now they are predicting that.

[mountain shadow]

The reality for the weather in these islands is that have a big ocean to the West of us and the jet runs across is West to East across it, nothing is therefore going to change that, therefore just as

wQBO + El Nino + Solar Max + no SSW is more likely to bring above average temps, so does an eQBO + La Nina + Solar Min + SSW, it's just with the latter that we have a higher probability of colder weather as indeed some received earlier this month with the eQBO/La Nina/weak sun.

[Ali1977]

Whilst at first glance FI on the Perbs doesn't look great, however there does seem to be heights creeping north on many, with pressure lowering around the Azores and in the Med (mainly Easterm) on many. One to watch, especially if the METOs models are hinting at some blocking towards mid Jan. 

Ill compare the 06z with the 12z for Icelandic pressure charts and see if there's more trending higher - maybe to early but hey ho!! 

06z for now with a few spiking up.

Edited December 21, 2017 by Ali1977

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

its looking like there will be no 'bad' winter, no repeat of say 78-9 , id have thought the best coldies can hope for is a 2 week freeze late jan/early feb. many would welcome that, but tbh i doubt we will even get half of that.

No, I fear winter proper is done this year, away from Scotland, hilly parts of the north, very rarely get anything now in TMW, especially after December, been a good winter though for modern standards, 1 week of significant snow and cold, SW1988 on I.L!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Rain and wind...muck and mud. What joy. Will do my SAD symptoms a power of good...NOT. Can't wait to start the fretting about how much hard earned I'll be having to fork out on fence panels.

How many weeks of winter will be trashed by this upcoming oh so delightful spell of zonality I wonder? Will we be witnessing the long held traditional posting of wintry charts at day 10 which keep getting pushed back and back until suddenly the days are notably longer and March is upon us?

Edited December 21, 2017 by Carl46Wrexham

[MP-R]

Lots of unnecessary panic it would seem. So we're about to see some 'weather' next week, a lot more interesting than what we have now. Yes it looks autumnal rather than wintry but with a south-diving jet and a PV on timer, it won't be long I don't think until something seasonal turns up. I'd dare say the mildies make the most of the run up to Christmas as temperatures will take a tumble back to the seasonal norm or slightly below next week.

[Ben Lewis]

4 hours ago, SW1988 said:

That '10 day trend' video on Met Office site is great.

Saves wading through the tantrums and tiaras posts on the mad thread.

No snow on the horizon unfortunately but some wild Atlantic storms going to visit us for some considerable time. Howling wind and rain, good cloudscapes,and maybe even a bit of thunder.

Proper weather!!

Bad news for those on here who are afraid of getting wet.??

 

15 more days and I’ll be getting my annual snow & cold fix for 3 weeks in Montreal whilst you are enjoying the cloud and rain (proper weather) = my version of a bore fest. 

I’m also enjoying my (proper weather) today. Dry and not raining = your version of a borefest :-) 

[Weathizard]

It's December 21'st and winter proper is over.   You have to laugh.... that being said for some of us winter hasn't even begun 

[knocker]

An interesting feature on the 06, which is just that and not to be taken too seriously, develops over the pond at T168.

A shallow surface low associated with an upper trough leaving the NE of America 'bombs' en route to mid Atlantic where the intense upper trough takes on on a slightly positive tilt which disrupts the jet and leads to WAA over the UK and points east. A forecast sounding in the North Sea indicates a freezing level at 10,000 feet. Just saying

Edited December 21, 2017 by knocker

[Wimbledon88]

59 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

15 more days and I’ll be getting my annual snow & cold fix for 3 weeks in Montreal whilst you are enjoying the cloud and rain (proper weather) = my version of a bore fest. 

I’m also enjoying my (proper weather) today. Dry and not raining = your version of a borefest :-) 

Oooh lucky you,went there about 10 years ago for a week in early January,oh jeeez it was cold and lots of snow,Ottowa aswell,frozen river( canal?) I always remember they said they were having a cold snap at the time -20c !!

Great city Montreal,whatever the weather.

Enjoy!!

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, karyo said:

I doubt it will be continuously mild till the end of winter. Mild overall of course but still with a couple of cold episodes. Ian Pennell's winter forecast is doing well so far and goes for a cold spell late January and another one in Feb.

... i know, i didnt say otherwise, i really dont listen to lrf's.... ive found i can guess as accurately tbh. i hope that those who endevour to try to interpret them continue and that one day they really will be more accurate.

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No, I fear winter proper is done this year, away from Scotland, hilly parts of the north, very rarely get anything now in TMW, especially after December, been a good winter though for modern standards, 1 week of significant snow and cold, SW1988 on I.L!

well if recent history is anything to go by, you could well be right. this strong jet expected just after crimbo isnt likely to go anywhere fast, and although it might not be continuously mild, proper cold snaps/spells will be very hard to come by until that jet weakens.

[Carl46Wrexham]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Lots of unnecessary panic it would seem. So we're about to see some 'weather' next week, a lot more interesting than what we have now. Yes it looks autumnal rather than wintry but with a south-diving jet and a PV on timer, it won't be long I don't think until something seasonal turns up. I'd dare say the mildies make the most of the run up to Christmas as temperatures will take a tumble back to the seasonal norm or slightly below next week.

One man's meat is another man's poison. Sorry but I for one fail to find any interest whatsoever in repeated episodes of high winds which bring such dubious delights as power cuts and damage to property along with heavy rains which bring at best mud and water logging, flooding at worst. 

 

 

 

[stainesbloke]

37 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

One man's meat is another man's poison. Sorry but I for one fail to find any interest whatsoever in repeated episodes of high winds which bring such dubious delights as power cuts and damage to property along with heavy rains which bring at best mud and water logging, flooding at worst. 

 

 

 

Agreed, not a very pleasant week or two to come. Though think of all the travel disruption, power cuts, damage etc, that a snowstorm would cause at this time of the year. A nice cold sunny high would do the trick but they've been as rare as honest politicians in recent years.

[Don]

5 hours ago, karyo said:

I doubt it will be continuously mild till the end of winter. Mild overall of course but still with a couple of cold episodes. Ian Pennell's winter forecast is doing well so far and goes for a cold spell late January and another one in Feb.

Interestingly, Roger J Smiths's winter forecast points towards something similar for mid to late January, too.  One to watch for sure!

[MP-R]

52 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

One man's meat is another man's poison. Sorry but I for one fail to find any interest whatsoever in repeated episodes of high winds which bring such dubious delights as power cuts and damage to property along with heavy rains which bring at best mud and water logging, flooding at worst. 

 

 

 

Haha, a bit melodramatic. I didn't say I like that sort of weather, I said it's a bit more interesting than the nothingness we have now. Next week would appear to shake things up a bit, bringing colder air back, bringing more sunshine (well, sunshine at all!), bringing the possibility of sunshine/showers scenarios with more interesting cloudscapes, and yes, a bit of wind. We're not staring down the barrel of 2013/2014 storms on roids...

[Evening thunder]

Well it looks like the recent thoughts of Scandi height after Christmas and into the new year have gone a bit adrift (reading GP's latest posts).
Tbh it's seemed a theme recently (at least when they suggest good things, so I remember). Last winter the same happened, this summer it also did when there were some very optimistic sounding postings/forecasts for the 2nd half, and again it has now.

I'd hate to see posts/forecasts using these tools and teleconnections stop, and they obviously have their uses but they don't seem to have shone above the mean of model output to me recently.
Maybe that's just our meteorological bad luck though.

Anyway I can't wait forever for 'potential'. There's been quite a few suggestions of a generally milder winter including seasonal models and the Met Office contingency planners forecasts.
Of course a '2 week freeze' is possible within that as some people say but I wouldn't be too surprised if there were no major/lengthy cold spells from now on. I'm not forecasting/expecting that (and you can't write anything off beyond about 2 weeks IMO), but it wouldn't surprise me too much.
 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Maybe it's just me, but I think there's a pretty good chance that another cold spell or even spells might show up later this Winter. I'm optimistically basing it on the fact we've had one good snow event here already. And to me it seems if such an event like that has happened round this way already, that that may be something of an indication that there could be further cold and snowy outbreaks. This is probably flawed logic, but I'm kind of thinking of such Winters as 1996/97, 2000/01, 2008/09 and 2012/13 as Winters that brought some cold and snow early in November and December then for temperatures to revert milder for a while after which colder weather returned and often (as in the two more recent examples) colder and more snowy than the spell which preceded it.  Here's hoping at least .

[Matthew.]

16 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Maybe it's just me, but I think there's a pretty good chance that another cold spell or even spells might show up later this Winter. I'm optimistically basing it on the fact we've had one good snow event here already. And to me it seems if such an event like that has happened round this way already, that that may be something of an indication that there could be further cold and snowy outbreaks. This is probably flawed logic, but I'm kind of thinking of such Winters as 1996/97, 2000/01, 2008/09 and 2012/13 as Winters that brought some cold and snow early in November and December then for temperatures to revert milder for a while after which colder weather returned and often (as in the two more recent examples) colder and more snowy than the spell which preceded it.  Here's hoping at least .

Quite agree Walsall w s. I’d be surprised if that was it for the 2017/18 cold season. I always include March and April as possibilities too, you just never know. Even if that’s it at least there’s been some 

[snowblizzard]

Unfortunately, the timing was all wrong.

If we currently had the blocking pattern that we were seeing early/mid -November & early December right now we would almost certainly be seeing much colder & snowier conditions across much of UK!

Fits in with predictions of 'front loaded' winter.

It probably means that much of January will be Atlantic dominated with relatively mild & possibly stormy conditions.

Lets hope February delivers the beast from the East!

 

 

[knocker]

Just a reminder that the 'trend is your friend'.

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just a reminder that the 'trend is your friend'.

Can you stop posting Julys anomalies please knocker !!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

No. Frankly.

I've been watching the weather models for nearly 15 years and I can't count the times people on weather watching sites get all excited by the "gut feelings" they have about how its all "just different" this time of year and how "exciting" it is and how they "have a feeling that something is brewing" etc, etc. Let me tell you this now: 

Its never different. The only thing brewing in our grey, miserable autumnal winters are low after low after despicable, detestable Atlantic low pressure systems and days on end of damp, grey anti-cyclonic gloom. Once you've been watching weather for as long as I have that is the only "feeling" you'll learn to expect come winter. Its always the same. The odd year may come along about once a decade to buck the trend slightly. But the status quo has to bend so far out of place and stretch so far to the extreme, atmospherically, to even allow the possibility of it that any freak aberration from the norm is followed by 2 or 3 years of just as extreme zonal, Atlantic Hell as punishment and payback. 
Your "feeling" is based on nothing but naive wishful thinking, exposure to snowy scenes on Victorian Christmas cards you've been given at work and sentimental notions of how nice and lovely it would be. Trust me your "feeling" will soon be dashed to pieces very quickly and quite thoroughly by the stark reality of just how truly sh*t this miserably island's climate is. 

Stick around. You'll learn. 

i most agree with you here, but surely after watching the models so long plus experience you can get 'a feeling' for something based on past experiences? no?...

in saying that, i dont get any feeling that things will become cold/wintry, now the jet is gaining strength and has the uk in its sights.