Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Feel free to moan away it’s the thread for it lol  don’t mind me grumpy Dan this evening.  

Haha no i'm the grumpy one (or manic depressive )!!

You know full well i will be the first to ramp up snow and cold...

And then moan til i'm blue in the face when it goes wrong!!

I take your initial point tho- i'm the very first to wave the white flag at the first opportunity

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha no i'm the grumpy one (or manic depressive )!!

You know full well i will be the first to ramp up snow and cold...

And then moan til i'm blue in the face when it goes wrong!!

I take your initial point tho- i'm the very first to wave the white flag at the first opportunity

I don't know why people should be so surprised by what we have been seeing in the output. The Long rangers have been clear on a +NAO winter for months. I think the issue is that some people chose to ignore the signals and describe the models capabilities as 'crap' etc, even to the point where I was ridiculed for using the averaged CFS runs as a forecasting tool.

[Guest]

[waffle]

I know this is the moaning thread but I don't think people should write off winter just yet.  The GFS has slowly been trending colder (albeit in FI) and we've had a decent start in terms of lower temperatures. Even London has seen some snow! Milder spells are inevitable but to me it is tricky to commit any credence to cycles as I feel we are in such an unusual, almost unprecedented, setup and we do see some really odd charts sometimes.

Sometimes it is nice, at least for me when I realise I don't have a clue what might happen in 5 days time, to see that the models don't have a clue either!

We end up lambasting all the various models at various points during the winter and I feel they are simply playing the same lottery we are. Some will verify, some latch on to a 'trend' as if by pure luck, and others miss the bulls-eye completely throughout the season  Winter forecasts are fantastic to read and a lot of work is put into the but don't you get the impression a few days later they are meaningless given how much the data has changed? 

I realise this last paragraph is somewhat hypocritical seen as I did try to pin my coldie hopes on an FI GFS trend before claiming it's all luck anyway

[/waffle]

 

Edited December 19, 2017 by Steel City Skies
not enough incoherent waffle

[Ben Lewis]

At least Frostys happy. 

He cant wait for a spell of wet and windy weather... with rain rain rain to budge this ‘yawn fest’ as he calls it. 

Some of us love a yawn fest... me for one. 

Give me cloud and nothingness anyday with a temp of 10c over wet and windy with a temp of 10c.

I have dogs that need walking everyday, play football every Sunday and keep fit outdoors a lot. This yawn fest can stay as far as I’m concerned if it’s not going to be cold and snowy. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

At least Frostys happy. 

He cant wait for a spell of wet and windy weather... with rain rain rain to budge this ‘yawn fest’ as he calls it. 

Some of us love a yawn fest... me for one. 

Give me cloud and nothingness anyday with a temp of 10c over wet and windy with a temp of 10c.

I have dogs that need walking everyday, play football every Sunday and keep fit outdoors a lot. This yawn fest can stay as far as I’m concerned if it’s not going to be cold and snowy. 

Agree fully, yawnfest can last for ever

[snowblizzard]

I'm finding the model watching and predictions in USA quite interesting as well.

White Christmas or not in NYC?

I didn't realise how many Americans chase snow just like some of us in UK!

The only difference being, they have a much better chance of experiencing severe cold & snow than here in UK

Massive land mass v tiny island!

 

Edited December 19, 2017 by snowblizzard

[SLEETY]

Just one week of sub-zero temps and decent snowfall ,is all I ask

At least some of you have seen snow on the ground.

Some posters said in nov it was going to be a mild winter,wouldn’t bet against them now.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Just one week of sub-zero temps and decent snowfall ,is all I ask

At least some of you have seen snow on the ground.

Some posters said in nov it was going to be a mild winter,wouldn’t bet against them now.

 

 

Yes been great spell, 8-15 Dec, lots of snow and ice! best for 4 years, still believe it's going to be a mild winter, Jan and Feb seem pants these days

[Relativistic]

I'm still pretty optimistic at the moment. This December has followed a very similar trajectory to December 2012 around here: a decent snowfall at short notice in the first half of the month, accompanied by frosty conditions and below-average temperatures, and finally a switch to very mild weather around mid-month. We then had to wait until mid-January before the cold weather returned, and thereafter there was plenty of wintry weather even well into April, including the record-breaking March 2013.

As things stand, I'm pretty happy that we've managed to get some cold weather in already. The shockers in recent years featured no spells of weather like the recent one, with puny snowfalls coming much later in the season. This current season has a very different feel to it already.

[ManiaMuse]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

At least Frostys happy. 

He cant wait for a spell of wet and windy weather... with rain rain rain to budge this ‘yawn fest’ as he calls it. 

Some of us love a yawn fest... me for one. 

Give me cloud and nothingness anyday with a temp of 10c over wet and windy with a temp of 10c.

I have dogs that need walking everyday, play football every Sunday and keep fit outdoors a lot. This yawn fest can stay as far as I’m concerned if it’s not going to be cold and snowy. 

Yup, for cycling to work I would much rather 8-10c, perpetual gloom and drizzle but calm winds to 8-10c, heavy downpours and continuous, gusty winds.

[Wimbledon88]

Well I'm all for wind,gales,rain,anything but this cold rubbish.

Looks like nowhere in Europe is going to have much if any snow over Christmas even the places in central eastern Europe where you would expect it.

So,if we ain't going to have snow then bring on the storms,at least it's real weather.

Is that not why we are on here..??

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

We all have preferences, mine if not cold/snow, is what many would call yawnfest, mild or cold, my weather preference is dry

[Ben Lewis]

20 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Well I'm all for wind,gales,rain,anything but this cold rubbish.

Looks like nowhere in Europe is going to have much if any snow over Christmas even the places in central eastern Europe where you would expect it.

So,if we ain't going to have snow then bring on the storms,at least it's real weather.

Is that not why we are on here..??

 

Errr.... no! 

Im not on here for Rain or windy Atlantic dross. I live in the UK - that’s bog standard, so don’t worry your rain and gales will come. 

Its not about wanting snow over Christmas, that is unlikely! It’s about folk crying out because it’s not blowing a gale outside with driving rain! Still each to their own 

I’m here for the difference. Snow & cold in winter, sun & heat in summer. 

Windy and mild Atlantic wet gunk giving rainy weather... no thanks, I’ll stick with the yawn fest. At least it’s dry! 

To presume people are on here just for rain and gales is quite ridiculous, dry and calm conditions is also real weather incase you haven’t noticed. 

 

 

 

[Evening thunder]

 

22 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Errr.... no! 

Im not on here for Rain or windy Atlantic dross. I live in the UK - that’s bog standard, so don’t worry your rain and gales will come. 

Its not about wanting snow over Christmas, that is unlikely! It’s about folk crying out because it’s not blowing a gale outside with driving rain! Still each to their own 

I’m here for the difference. Snow & cold in winter, sun & heat in summer. 

Windy and mild Atlantic wet gunk giving rainy weather... no thanks, I’ll stick with the yawn fest. At least it’s dry! 

To presume people are on here just for rain and gales is quite ridiculous, dry and calm conditions is also real weather incase you haven’t noticed. 

 

 

 

You're welcome to have whatever preferences you want but why do you have to have such an attitude to people who do like some aspects of 'active' Atlantic weather, does it actually offend you?

I'd like a greater seasonal difference than we get too, but if I did only crave that or cold/snow like many, I'd be happy about once every 4 years  so that's not really an option down here. 

Anyway there is more to Atlantic patterns than just wind/rain, I wouldn't want that constantly, but it is the dull sunless type with little weather that can really get to me.

[TEITS]

Just going through the ensembles for the UK, Berlin, Oslo, Moscow and they are shockingly poor.

The 850hpa mean for Moscow towards the New Year is an incredible 0C. Oslo hovers around -4C, Berlin between -1C to -3C.

So what does this all mean. Well the best we can get here in the UK is a cool NW,ly from Xmas into the New year. This is because there is no sign of any cold weather spreading S into Europe because the Arctic airmass remains bottled up towards N parts of Scandi & Siberia.

At the moment there is no sign whatsoever of any significant cold spell even as we start a New Year. If anything I feel much of Europe will be experiencing mild S,lys rather than a biting E,ly. How I would love to be wrong.

[daz_4]

10 hours ago, TEITS said:

Just going through the ensembles for the UK, Berlin, Oslo, Moscow and they are shockingly poor.

True. The forecast for my city is really bad. Early spring on the way in Central Europe. We can't afford another dry and warm winter here. The drought next summer is going to be terrible again.

 

[tight isobar]

Its just a 'complete' shame that some are only on -Netweather, to troll and be a complete and utter pain in the boll#x..

Rather than have any decent model analysis/or interp, of any value.

For myself its begining to wear very close to the bone!!

And is fast becoming a meteorlogical' poke/back stabbing forum/forums!

?

quite sad!

Edited December 20, 2017 by tight isobar

[TEITS]

39 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

True. The forecast for my city is really bad. Early spring on the way in Central Europe. We can't afford another dry and warm winter here. The drought next summer is going to be terrible again.

 

Sadly even the improved ECM this morning shows the problem in Europe.

I certainly hope we see a drastic change in the output for here in the UK aswell. We might see some snowfall over the Xmas period especially over high ground but at the moment nothing suggests a more notable cold spell.

[northwestsnow]

Well i'm hopeful of some wintryness between christmas and new year but for the overwhelming majority it looks like lots of cold hard rain.

Scotland may stay north enough of the jet to bring some very wintry weather- esp over the Hills but lets call a spade a spade here- for any deep prolonged cold its looking as bleak as last year- 

 

[Frosty_wsm]

14 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Errr.... no! 

Im not on here for Rain or windy Atlantic dross. I live in the UK - that’s bog standard, so don’t worry your rain and gales will come. 

Its not about wanting snow over Christmas, that is unlikely! It’s about folk crying out because it’s not blowing a gale outside with driving rain! Still each to their own 

I’m here for the difference. Snow & cold in winter, sun & heat in summer. 

Windy and mild Atlantic wet gunk giving rainy weather... no thanks, I’ll stick with the yawn fest. At least it’s dry! 

To presume people are on here just for rain and gales is quite ridiculous, dry and calm conditions is also real weather incase you haven’t noticed. 

 

 

 

Yep I don't mind this yawn fest as some call it & I'm not looking forward to the change to a more mobile setup, unless of course it brings the chances of wintry weather which living down south is not the case at the moment so I'd rather this settled spell continued. 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Yep I don't mind this yawn fest as some call it & I'm not looking forward to the change to a more mobile setup, unless of course it brings the chances of wintry weather which living down south is not the case at the moment so I'd rather this settled spell continued. 

Settled and foggy her for the next 3 days. Not great!

[DOdo]

I think the Models are all over the place. I dont think the forecasters are 100% what is going to happen next week. I wouldnt be surprised if some places wake up to a White Christmas on Monday

[mushymanrob]

WINTER IS OVER! ...... ive just seen a DAFFODIL out in bloom!

seriously.... in risley (between derby and nottingham)

tbh though it is an early flowering variety... *snigger*

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i'm hopeful of some wintryness between christmas and new year but for the overwhelming majority it looks like lots of cold hard rain.

Scotland may stay north enough of the jet to bring some very wintry weather- esp over the Hills but lets call a spade a spade here- for any deep prolonged cold its looking as bleak as last year- 

 

Looking great for period between Christmas and New Year,plenty of wind and rain and maybe even a storm or two. At least it ll get rid of the grey rubbish we now have  here now. Love looking at the radar seeing rain appriach and the wind picking up. I know that doesnt fit the narrative on this site with its obsession with dry and snow( however that works!!)

Wet stormy weather is actually a bit of a novelty down here.

Snow even more so but as I said a few weeks ago,with a more mobile pattern,anything can happen.

They still live in hope of an eastetly over on the mad thread! Have they seen the temperatures to our east???

I wonder about folk there sometimes,someone on there a few days ago wanted to know if a euro slug high would give us an easterly in the UK?!?!!

[northwestsnow]

tomasz shafffaknacker just said on TV apart from a blip after crimbo its all mild ..

With quite a bit of rain.

Nice.