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Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Looks like we might have to wait for LIA2 before we see a decent winter!:cold::D

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

We were always going to get a spell of Atlantic weather with a more organised PV towards Greenland at some time as we haven't experienced this so far this autumn and early winter but sadly looks right in time for Xmas...question is how long will it last? recent winters have suggested right through to March.

Give us strength if this happens...

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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

We were always going to get a spell of Atlantic weather with a more organised PV towards Greenland at some time as we haven't experienced this so far this autumn and early winter but sadly looks right in time for Xmas...question is how long will it last? recent winters have suggested right through to March.

Give us strength if this happens...

Most likely scenario followed by a cool April and May .

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

We were always going to get a spell of Atlantic weather with a more organised PV towards Greenland at some time as we haven't experienced this so far this autumn and early winter but sadly looks right in time for Xmas...question is how long will it last? recent winters have suggested right through to March.

Give us strength if this happens...

Ay, don't rate Jan and Feb in the christmas pudding, changed to Atlantic months since around '99

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Seeing as every year is different, let's not panic. I wouldn't be surprised to see something more akin to the time of year pop up within the next week.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Disappointing charts for a lot of us looking for seasonal cold weather for Christmas.The ens outputs over the last few days have trended more and more to a flat Atlantic jet in spite of some recent GFS op runs showing some lovely Wintery outcomes later in the month.

I know they have their critics but the ens mean charts along with the clusters are our best guide to check whether the operational runs are outliers beyond the reliable.They can change but they are much less volatile than the later frames of the operational charts and if viewed regularly you can usually spot a trend.

Anyway let's hope that this westerly pattern can throw up the odd surprise as there's cold just to our north to tap into if we can see some re-newed buckling of the jet.

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Tracy Flick Contributor

Tracy Flick

Posted
  • Location: DL
  • Location: DL
Posted

If that 16-30 MetO forecast tomorrow evening still indicates snow before week 4 anywhere other than Pennines+mountains, I will eat my hat.  I'm just totally mystified by the stubbornness of it.  What in the holy hell are they seeing?

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, markyo said:

A snow free Christmas ideal?.....oh dear you southern softies are getting worse!:D......Not like us up North,we can take anything thrown at us,do we EVER moan about the weather!? As if we would....:nonono:

Yes, a snow-free Christmas is my ideal. Am quite happy with cold, sunny, frosty...but no snow until after Christmas Day. If any of you are an airline or airport employee like I am, you'll probably agree. Of course, if the currently rather shambolic UK infrastructure ever manages to deal with snowfall effectively, bring on Christmas snow! This winter so far (all 2 weeks of it) has been very different to recent disappointing (for coldies) efforts, so I'm not sure a completely normal period of Atlantic weather warrants panic and despair just yet. It is mid December, not mid February. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, don't rate Jan and Feb in the christmas pudding, changed to Atlantic months since around '99

You are awful, but I like you!

Dick emery fans only:rofl:

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snowblizzard Aficionado

snowblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
Posted (edited)

BBC's John Hammond (cold ramper) still saying don't give up on cold at Christmas just yet as there are still 9 days to go which is a fairly long time in weather terms and there have been so many ups & downs recently!

But, even he did look a bit deflated yesterday - wishful thinking me thinks?

 

Edited by snowblizzard
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78/79 Accomplished

78/79

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
Posted

As long as it's mostly dry this week I'll be happy, at least I'll get some work done, and earn some money:D

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC's John Hammond (cold ramper) still saying don't give up on cold at Christmas just yet as there are still 9 days to go which is a fairly long time in weather terms and there have been so many ups & downs recently!

But, even he did look a bit deflated yesterday - wishful thinking me thinks?

 

Good old John Hammond. :) 

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

People need to cheer up. We have the amplified MJO wave we wanted and it has gotten into phase 7/8 in the forecasts at good strength but we were always going to have a tough period due to it having gone through phases 4-5 first and their been a lag.

Hold your course, I'm still optimistic for the first half of January personally (even some hints as to why at a northern hemisphere level). 

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

here's the boring version-

the american navy model is not considered amongst the most reliable of models. therefore gleaning hope from it would be rather futile. after some recent maritime incidents involving the US Navy, their navigational equipment has come into question. i would therefore, not hold much faith in the accuracy of their weather model.

is that better?

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Hope we can get a decent cold spell in January,even it’s a only a week.Can hardly remember a really severe cold spell in Jan,since 1987;only Jan 2010 springs to mind.

What a joke jan has become since 87 lot of the younger members here would never have experienced jan 1987

Remember walking on the South Downs on the afternoon of Mon 12th Jan with temp hovering at -10c ,wish I could find photos .Never come close to anything in Jan since :(

 

 

 

 

 

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Kentish Man Contributor

Kentish Man

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
Posted

Looks like another mild Christmas Day with the bane of recent Xmases tropical maritime air flooding over the south. Christmas Day itself seems to be remarkably unlucky with lack of snow even in Dec 2010 and Dec 1981 the severely cold snowy month had nearly run out of steam by the day itself. We have to go back to Dec 1970 (I think from the top of my head) for a classic snow falling and settling fairytale day in the south of the UK.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Hope we can get a decent cold spell in January,even it’s a only a week.Can hardly remember a really severe cold spell in Jan,since 1987;only Jan 2010 springs to mind.

What a joke jan has become since 87 lot of the younger members here would never have experienced jan 1987

Remember walking on the South Downs on the afternoon of Mon 12th Jan with temp hovering at -10c ,wish I could find photos .Never come close to anything in Jan since :(

 

 

 

 

 

Feb is just as bad, hardly any beasterlies in the christmas pudding, used to guarantee biting easterlies in Feb before late 90's

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Feb is just as bad, hardly any beasterlies in the christmas pudding, used to guarantee biting easterlies in Feb before late 90's

Yet that’s true as well,even though we have had easterlies after 90s ,they just don’t seem to be so cold as before .

With rapid melting of any snow ,at least at sea level.

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
39 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yet that’s true as well,even though we have had easterlies after 90s ,they just don’t seem to be so cold as before .

With rapid melting of any snow ,at least at sea level.

The east is cold, much colder than before , it's the north that's scorching hot

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted

Glad to see Knocker has resolved his technical issues.

Interesting 12z from the ECM EPS. I don't usually bother with beyond T240, but one wonders if a cooler zonal flow going towards the month end is likely.

 

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Broken zimmer ?? :rofl:

Maybe have some respect or if you can't, go back to the sandpit and play with your soldiers.

Its not like you have anything to say in regards to models anyway.

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