Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Number 23]

10 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

I will add that ALL affordable Davos wooden sledges have vanished off Ebay in the past few days, missed my chance again. They'll all be back on next week after the Non-Snow-Event is over......(I am trying reverse psychology on the weather, again)

2

Ha, think there'll be a lot of that over the next few days!

[Southender]

Lot's of toys about to be thrown around in the MOD thread .

The annual pear shaped model output is about to begin.... 
Nurse, Prozac please....

Edited December 5, 2017 by Southender

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Southender said:

Lot's of toys about to be thrown around in the MOD thread. The annual pear shaped model output is about to begin.... 

thought ECM may be right, dosen't have best verification stats for nothing, as it stands, all models, milder for the South late on Saturday night/Sunday morning

[stainesbloke]

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thought ECM may be right, dosen't have best verification stats for nothing, as it stands, all models, milder for the South late on Saturday night/Sunday morning

Yep, the usual downgrades in the semi reliable timeframe. No surprises there. Although still a lot of options between the models, so too early to call with any confidence and some snow events are quite possible.

Edited December 5, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Tonyinhampshire]

Looks like snow going America's and Europe's way after all, whilst UK same old pork chops.

[Tonyinhampshire]

PS. Winters over

[minus86BriJ]

26 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

PS. Winters over

I'm a huge fan of cold and snow and the only real solace I find in mild winters with poor cold prospects is the disappointment felt by the bitter few who don't deserve another 2010.

Plenty of time yet.

[Rammie]

4 hours ago, Nizzer said:

Another cold event that is slow evolving into a nothing event for my neck of the woods! Oh well. 

Well not quite. There may be nearly two days with a cool breeze! 

[Ciderwithrosie]

 Met Office weather warning for my neck of the woods into Wales and Scotland on Friday for ice and snow. Only a yellow warning. I'm quite surprised for my neck of the woods . I thought if any white stuff fell then it would be Northern /Eastern England and Scotland, judging by the model thread . But I'm not very knowledgable im afraid to be able to make sense of that thread. I lurk and try and and learn. This far without success. 

[Norway Nut]

I'm sorry in advance if I upset anyone on this thread but I've just about have had enough of the constant moans and bickering in the MOD thread.

There seems to be 3 groups of people in that thread who are very active.

First group, mild rampers who latch onto any whiff of zonal activity and take great joy in parading their doomsday reading of the models under the noses of the other groups.

Second group, cold fanactics - very similar in action to the first group but for cold instead of mild.

Third group, donkeys out of "Winnie the Pooh". These are the most pathetic of the groups. Unless the models are showing 40 day blizzards then everything is just pants. What I say to these folk? Move to Siberia, you'll get your wish to come true there.

There are only a few posters in that thread that try to be as objecttive as possible and even fewer that offer up opinions on what the models will show next. They know they are. There's only a handful that actually try to forecast the weather, the rest just interpret the models' outputs.

One last thing. What's the fascination in looking for the breakdown of a cold/hot spell of weather before that spell of weather has even begun? I'd appreciate an answer to that one as it really makes no sense to me.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Norway Nut said:

I'm sorry in advance if I upset anyone on this thread but I've just about have had enough of the constant moans and bickering in the MOD thread.

There seems to be 3 groups of people in that thread who are very active.

First group, mild rampers who latch onto any whiff of zonal activity and take great joy in parading their doomsday reading of the models under the noses of the other groups.

Second group, cold fanactics - very similar in action to the first group but for cold instead of mild.

Third group, donkeys out of "Winnie the Pooh". These are the most pathetic of the groups. Unless the models are showing 40 day blizzards then everything is just pants. What I say to these folk? Move to Siberia, you'll get your wish to come true there.

There are only a few posters in that thread that try to be as objecttive as possible and even fewer that offer up opinions on what the models will show next. They know they are. There's only a handful that actually try to forecast the weather, the rest just interpret the models' outputs.

One last thing. What's the fascination in looking for the breakdown of a cold/hot spell of weather before that spell of weather has even begun? I'd appreciate an answer to that one as it really makes no sense to me.

Just use the ignore feature :-)

 

[Windchime72]

Snow in Saudi Arabia yesterday, snow in Tasmania too, in the first week of their summer...lol

[Tonyinhampshire]

I was thinking of using the Ouija board to see if it will snow !

[Tonyinhampshire]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Just use the ignore feature :-)

 

Well it is the moaning forum . And im moaning because it is pants

[jvenge]

6 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Well it is the moaning forum . And im moaning because it is pants

For sure, the right place for it, unlike 90% of the posts in the other thread ;-)

But, sometimes solutions are better than moaning, yes? So, for me anyway, I'll add a few people to ignore each day, as there are some thoughts I'd want to read, but I don't have the time or patience to read through the manure to get to it ;-)

 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

For sure, the right place for it, unlike 90% of the posts in the other thread ;-)

But, sometimes solutions are better than moaning, yes? So, for me anyway, I'll add a few people to ignore each day, as there are some thoughts I'd want to read, but I don't have the time or patience to read through the manure to get to it ;-)

 

There does seem a lot of knee jerk reaction from one suite to the next.   If people took a look at the background signals  then there would be less panic spread amongst the thread.    Cold with chance of snow.  models will flip as they gain parity   And as the old adage goes, The Weather dictates the Models not the other way around   if everyone kept hold of that then everything would be fine.  if maybe a little less exciting.

[jvenge]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

There does seem a lot of knee jerk reaction from one suite to the next.   If people took a look at the background signals  then there would be less panic spread amongst the thread.    Cold with chance of snow.  models will flip as they gain parity   And as the old adage goes, The Weather dictates the Models not the other way around   if everyone kept hold of that then everything would be fine.  if maybe a little less exciting.

Actually, I think people getting excited is perfectly natural and fine.

What personally grates on me is the longer term output being taken as gospel when it shows what someone wants. Then trying to find reasons to discount another model. Then trying to imagine what the output could show if a, b, c, d e, etc etc were to happen instead. Then going on the emotional rollercoaster as some posters live op run to op run. It's exhausting to even try to keep up with as an observed and occasional contributor, so I can only imagine how the people who live it feel ;-)

And it attracts different types. As much as I dislike the rabid cold ramper, the trolls popping in when an output changes the other way is equally as annoying.

 

[mushymanrob]

wonderful winters day today ... dry, calm, cool, overcast. stay like this until mid feb please!

yeah i know it wont

 

[Number 23]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

wonderful winters day today ... dry, calm, cool, overcast. stay like this until mid feb please!

yeah i know it wont

 

Yes was nice jumping in the car on the way to the gym this morning at 6.45 - no frost to scrape off, light hoodie on, no shivering in the kitchen waiting for my porridge. Used to be very pro-cold weather, but now I'll only welcome it when it's truly memorable. Would gladly take a '91 again, but hens teeth and all that.

I actually very much enjoy the slate-grey skies and stillness. Hoping the 12z's continue to push the LP off north and east, as this set-up wasn't really floating my boat anyway.

[Tonyinhampshire]

Quote ' if we could only move this bit of high pressure over there and move that low pressure over here'.….. Why do people do that . The weather is going to happen whatever you say !.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Number 23 said:

Yes was nice jumping in the car on the way to the gym this morning at 6.45 - no frost to scrape off, light hoodie on, no shivering in the kitchen waiting for my porridge. Used to be very pro-cold weather, but now I'll only welcome it when it's truly memorable. Would gladly take a '91 again, but hens teeth and all that.

I actually very much enjoy the slate-grey skies and stillness. Hoping the 12z's continue to push the LP off north and east, as this set-up wasn't really floating my boat anyway.

at this time of the year anyway (still, slate grey skies) . its not stupidly mild but not cold enough to be unpleasant when working outside, and its dry! no rain, no fog, no dew.

yeah i agree about a truely memorable event, im not a fan of the cold, but i do like a proper decent blizzard. so for me its all or nothing. chasing the snow (mod thread) is pretty pointless until a blizzards iminant, a farty bit of snow simply isnt worth it imho.

[Tracy Flick]

2 hours ago, jvenge said:

Actually, I think people getting excited is perfectly natural and fine.

What personally grates on me is the longer term output being taken as gospel when it shows what someone wants. Then trying to find reasons to discount another model. Then trying to imagine what the output could show if a, b, c, d e, etc etc were to happen instead. Then going on the emotional rollercoaster as some posters live op run to op run. It's exhausting to even try to keep up with as an observed and occasional contributor, so I can only imagine how the people who live it feel ;-)

And it attracts different types. As much as I dislike the rabid cold ramper, the trolls popping in when an output changes the other way is equally as annoying.

 

The problem with much of the Netweather Forum is that any strong disagreement with the popular consensus is often considered trolling.  People with minority opinions aren't trolling, they are often simply challenging lazy assumptions which are too readily given an uncritical pass.  They are trying stop the spread of what they consider to be false information.  

'Truth' should not be defined by how popular and assertive the poster is, particularly when they provide zero evidence to support their assertion.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, meh said:

The problem with much of the Netweather Forum is that any strong disagreement with the popular consensus is often considered trolling.  People with minority opinions aren't trolling, they are often simply challenging lazy assumptions which are too readily given an uncritical pass.  They are trying stop the spread of what they consider to be false information.  

'Truth' should not be defined by how popular and assertive the poster is, particularly when they provide zero evidence to support their assertion.

The people who do it know who they are. 

[Mokidugway]

It's full of egocentric nutcases anyway 

[Seasonal Trim]

I'll ask the question in here rather than the MOD thread, to try and get a honest answer. How are we looking over the next 5 days south of the M4?