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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
4 hours ago, Smartie said:

A repeat of Dec '81 would be nice, around a foot of snow at sea level, must have been insane up on the mendips considering the snow depths we had. Trying to think if that was the same event where we had snow drifts literally up to the top of the back door! 

December '81 was amazing here too. Loads of snow from multiple falls. I remember my brother and I built a big snowman each outside the front our house and they were still there in March (although much reduced). Are there any similarities in synoptics at the moment?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
34 minutes ago, Snowstalker said:

When I was about 10 or 11 we had a massive dumping of snow along the southeast coastline, it was so big infact there was a big mound of slushy icy snow 1ft high and about 3ft wide all along the tide line at high tide, think that was about 91 or 92? never seen anything like it since, would love a repeat of that.

It would have been 1991.  1992 was snowless for the south east.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: South East, Romney Marsh
  • Weather Preferences: Storms and Snow, lots of snow...
  • Location: South East, Romney Marsh
3 minutes ago, Don said:

It would have been 1991.  1992 was snowless for the south east.

yeah that would be right, my brother just said it was like a slushy sea foam ice like this but more frothy as the tide was right upon it.

Frozen+Wrack+Line+Broadkill+Beach+DE.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

December '81 was amazing here too. Loads of snow from multiple falls. I remember my brother and I built a big snowman each outside the front our house and they were still there in March (although much reduced). Are there any similarities in synoptics at the moment?

If I remember rightly my brother saw me disappear under shed loads of snow when I thought it a good idea to open the back door to have a look at the snow drifts! Not sure about any similarities as not very good reading the charts but I did see Steve murr mention Dec 81 a few days back regarding what some of the models were showing at the time but a lot has changed since then but if we can get  an active southerly jet with low pressures being deflected to pass close the south as they head east then who knows. As you say though, it was multiple falls of snow that created that havoc back in Dec 81, I expect we struck lucky and had a few channel lows, can't even get one of those buggers these days though it seems. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The ECM is a southerners dream. Which is why it’s not going to verify. Yes my mood is not great...... wonder why 

Paul Pogba just rang.. he said re snow for the South, you can try and have a poop in one hand and a wish in the other and see which one gets filled first?! hibye.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Paul Pogba just rang.. he said re snow for the South, you can try and have a poop in one hand and a wish in the other and see which one gets filled first?! hibye.gif

I don’t wanna talk about it :cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

In case there is anyone else, apart from me, who isn't familiar with the term 'sliding low' as used in the forum and the mechanism behind it this is the example from this evening's ecm. Unfortunately I cannot show the better charts,

In a nutshell you have a major upper trough over NW Europe, HP ridging in mid Atlantic, troughs shooting out of the Canadian vortex south of Greenland where they pick up the 170kt jet which is shooting out of the deep trough in SE of the US and running around the high pressure and then south east over Ireland.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_9.thumb.png.52e97097817e7a32e1ee649607d34074.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
2 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

The BBC forecast for next week on iplayer is wet and windy.no mention of snow/  ice .. I fear Darren Betts has something to do with it.

That bloke can't broadcast a weather forecast without using the word mild every 30 seconds. 

I think he should be locked in the bbc store room between November and April. 

It's a well known fact that BBC weather presenters/forecasters all sit in a darkened round room without windows in a hypnotic zombified  state chanting "Mild good,Cold bad for their first 2 weeks training:D

Edited by 78/79
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

Must say Winters off to a promising start  ,and taking a much better direction than last year. For these parts a nice set up involving  Polar Continental air , combined with an  Atlantic system colliding with it  as in Dec 31st 78 will do nicely.:D

Edited by 78/79
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

it  the  models  are right  !!!  i  dare  say  the express,mail  will be  saying the start  of the ice  age after thureday !!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Must say Winters off to a promising start  ,and taking a much better direction than last year. For these parts a nice set up involving  Polar Continental air , combined with an  Atlantic system colliding with it  as in Dec 31st 78 will do nicely.:D

The beginning of last winter looked promising in November, before it went peat tong as December arrived!  I hope we don't get a repetition this year!

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Posted
  • Location: South East, Romney Marsh
  • Weather Preferences: Storms and Snow, lots of snow...
  • Location: South East, Romney Marsh
2 hours ago, tinybill said:

it  the  models  are right  !!!  i  dare  say  the express,mail  will be  saying the start  of the ice  age after thureday !!

they jinx it every time.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

I think today we’ll start seeing the toys being thrown out...gut tells me its gonna go Pete tong 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

Darren Bett (BBC/Meto) sounding confident that it will turn 'much colder' (snow scene background) at the end of this week!

Am I right in thinking Darren is usually a bit of a mild ramper?

The Countryfile weather for the week ahead could be very interesting later today!

Edited by snowblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex

I get the impression that we could 6 foot snow drifts outside and some of the people in the mod thread would still be hunched over their laptops, back to the window, stressing about the Azores high in 9 days time. We have some cold coming, it’s all but nailed on. Enjoy it and leave the FI be.

Edited by Spikey M
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The current pattern, where we now have the building blocks in a position so that we can safely say we are on the cusp of triggering a number of slider lows that threaten white outs in much of the UK and a state of emergency being declared, reminds me very much of December 1905 when Edwardian ladies skated on the Thames and squirrels roasted their nuts in regents Park.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Havent seen a flake of snow yet from the "epic" cold spell. Next w/e has gone from blizzard whiteout to cold rain with snow showers to higher parts. Then i'm off to Fuerteventura on Saturday for a few days when old blighty may get some snow!:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

nervy 12Z's coming up, after 00Z's, EC was my favourite, UKMO worst, 06Z all over by Monday, want improvements in 12Z's for GFS and UKMO

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Havent seen a flake of snow yet from the "epic" cold spell. Next w/e has gone from blizzard whiteout to cold rain with snow showers to higher parts. Then i'm off to Fuerteventura on Saturday for a few days when old blighty may get some snow!:nonono:

Too many things have to fall right, BB...If the 'trigger low' traverses the UK at the right angle (a pseudo-slider?) and pulls down super cold air from a substantive enough 'cold pool'...and with all of that being sustained by sufficient 'upstream amplification', the result could be 'epic'...? It could be even more 'epic' of course should 'reverse zonality' ensue...:good:

Easy peasy Japanesy!:rofl:

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55 minutes ago, knocker said:

The current pattern, where we now have the building blocks in a position so that we can safely say we are on the cusp of triggering a number of slider lows that threaten white outs in much of the UK and a state of emergency being declared, reminds me very much of December 1905 when Edwardian ladies skated on the Thames and squirrels roasted their nuts in regents Park.

Red or grey knocker ,greys have bigger nuts :rofl:

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