Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Snow Slave]

59 minutes ago, K9 said:

I personally think this year we should ban any form of model output discussion beyond T120....saves the major disappointments of years gone by !!....

Someone with waaaay more weather knowledge /chart reading abilities than me needs to set up a group that just discusses charts from T120 or less, which have a better chance of verifying! Would definitely save lots of toys being thrown and wrist slashing!

For me personally its too much of a roller coaster ride on the MOD thread, I try to only check it once a day usually, some times once every 48 hours if the inevitable down grades have happened and every ones on a downer.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Snowstalker

[Chesil View]

Just now, CK1981 said:

The latest Met Office outlook is certainly moving in the right direction ?

indeed wintry through til the new year according to that.

[CK1981]

Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

indeed wintry through til the new year according to that.

Quite a turnaround from yesterday!

[Methuselah]

Maybe the UK Met are expecting something broadly similar to January 1984? Northampton saw mostly rain and sleet (with very little in the way of meaningful snow) whereas locations north of 'somewhere in the Midlands' witnessed repeated bouts heavy snowfall...

I'm thinking that individual storm-tracks will be very important should a month-long 'cold' spell materialise...and how far south any rain-snow boundary will be, on any particular date, is anyone's guess...?

Half-way across the English Channel would be my preferred option, BTW!

[snowray]

30 minutes ago, Snowstalker said:

Someone with waaaay more weather knowledge /chart reading abilities than me needs to set up a group that just discusses charts from T120 or less, which have a better chance of verifying! Would definitely save lots of toys being thrown and wrist slashing!

For me personally its too much of a roller coaster ride on the MOD thread, I only check it once a day usually, some times once every 48 hours if the inevitable down grades have happened and ever ones on a downer.

If this current winter wonderland scenario were to go tits up, there will be a few advocating this, in fact every year a fair number talk about sticking to charts up to T120 and not going any further. There are certainly trends past T120, but when it comes down to it the cold and snow trends quite often don't even come close, its well worth while just sticking to UKMO, the fax charts and Met Office updates in fact if your not keen on that roller coaster ride that can in fact become quite addictive.

Edited December 2, 2017 by snowray

[Frosty_wsm]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe the UK Met are expecting something broadly similar to January 1984? Northampton saw mostly rain and sleet (with very little in the way of meaningful snow) whereas locations north of 'somewhere in the Midlands' witnessed repeated bouts heavy snowfall...

I'm thinking that individual storm-tracks will be very important should a month-long 'cold' spell materialise...and how far south any rain-snow boundary will be, on any particular date, is anyone's guess...?

Half-way across the English Channel would be my preferred option, BTW!

A repeat of Dec '81 would be nice, around a foot of snow at sea level, must have been insane up on the mendips considering the snow depths we had. Trying to think if that was the same event where we had snow drifts literally up to the top of the back door! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Guilty as charged -  and I really should know better entering into the froth of the MO discussion.

Yes - decent output from the last 3 runs that some are convinced will reduce the UK to Tundra next weekend.

It makes great reading but I genuinely fear for the sanity of some members on there

Can't wait .......

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Snowstalker said:

Someone with waaaay more weather knowledge /chart reading abilities than me needs to set up a group that just discusses charts from T120 or less, which have a better chance of verifying! Would definitely save lots of toys being thrown and wrist slashing!

For me personally its too much of a roller coaster ride on the MOD thread, I try to only check it once a day usually, some times once every 48 hours if the inevitable down grades have happened and every ones on a downer.

Agree - I am trying to cut down a little

[CK1981]

I would love to see some channel lows in the run up to Christmas. It’s about time the south got a good dumping of snow!

[Djdazzle]

Channel lows are such rare beasts though. But surely we are due one!

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Smartie said:

A repeat of Dec '81 would be nice, around a foot of snow at sea level, must have been insane up on the mendips considering the snow depths we had. Trying to think if that was the same event where we had snow drifts literally up to the top of the back door! 

I have been talking about this over the last week or so, it seems to me that we could be close to a Dec 1981 repeat or something very similar, uppers were not even that cold if I remember rightly, but mid December with the very short days can certainly produce the goods if its cold and snow that you are looking for. Unfortunately mid Dec is often very zonal but fingers crossed aye, very promising charts the last couple of days and long may it continue with 12z.

 

Can you see any similarities? 

[sundog]

Not long to go until the next set of runs roll out. Hope the mods have plenty of straight jackets at the ready just in case things don't go as desired lol.

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Why do I think that one Nathan Rao will disagree with that?

who? lol

thats fine, i might well be wrong, im basing  my pov on what the noaa's are predicting for the next 2 weeks. of course it depends on them being right.

[Methuselah]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

who? lol

thats fine, i might well be wrong, im basing  my pov on what the noaa's are predicting for the next 2 weeks. of course it depends on them being right.

He's the one that creates weather headlines for the Daily Express.

[cobbett]

So for the south - rain clearing by Thurs next week to be replaced by some chilly weather and dry at least away from coastal regions for the rest of the GFS 12z run....zzz

[Number 23]

Yeah northerlies can do one to be  honest, rather it was 15 degrees and have the heating off!

Hoping the high topples. 

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by Number 23

[Mokidugway]

Inevitable downgrades from now on ,like heatwaves and plumes ,rarely come to fruition 

[Methuselah]

Just popping out for a wee while. Hope it hasn't all gone the way-of-the-pear by the time I get back!

[sorepaw1]

The BBC forecast for next week on iplayer is wet and windy.no mention of snow/  ice .. I fear Darren Betts has something to do with it.

That bloke can't broadcast a weather forecast without using the word mild every 30 seconds. 

I think he should be locked in the bbc store room between November and April. 

[steveinsussex]

a 2 day northerly? ugh

 

No thanks

[Mokidugway]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just popping out for a wee while. Hope it hasn't all gone the way-of-the-pear by the time I get back!

Make shure you pop it back in Pete 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Make shure you pop it back in Pete 

Made it. Anything dastardly happen?

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Made it. Anything dastardly happen?

As you where , geostorm still happening 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Fylde precipitation avoidance system in full working order

[Snow Slave]

3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Channel lows are such rare beasts though. But surely we are due one!

When I was about 10 or 11 we had a massive dumping of snow along the southeast coastline, it was so big infact there was a big mound of slushy icy snow 1ft high and about 3ft wide all along the tide line at high tide, think that was about 91 or 92? never seen anything like it since, would love a repeat of that.