Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Hocus Pocus]

47 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If anyone seriously thinks that 18z output will verify they're an idiot - I might make myself very unpopular, but it's going to be a massive outlier and can be disregarded with a high degree of confidence.

It may well be an outlier but at the end of the day it’s as much chance as verifying as any other model output, unless of course you’re in possession of a time machine that is.?

[booferking]

Looked at half the 18z ens and i don't have to look at anymore that will be the best so far this year

Edited November 28, 2017 by booferking

[V for Very Cold]

It’s 11:30 pm and 164 ppl are still pouring over the model outputs.... sod the models.... that’s a great indicator of cold weather coming lol

[lassie23]

so after 1 million posts in the MOD thread, where do we stand?

[draztik]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

so after 1 million posts in the MOD thread, where do we stand?

this is how today has gone.

9am - WINTER. OVER. KAPUT. 

12pm - Hmm...

5pm - OH.

7pm - OMG, 'come on ECM, get with it'. 

11PM - 

***

tomorrow, expect the same, though not necessarily in that order. 

 

 

[Mapantz]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is the only site with 18z ensembles on but you cant copy and paste so here is the link.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50196&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1

They use Highcharts, so you can click the burger menu at the top right to download a PNG/JPEG and then upload it like a normal chart.

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, draztik said:

this is how today has gone.

9am - WINTER. OVER. KAPUT. 

12pm - Hmm...

5pm - OH.

7pm - OMG, 'come on ECM, get with it'. 

11PM - 

***

tomorrow, expect the same, though not necessarily in that order. 

 

 

my predictions for tomorrow

9am-

12pm-

5pm-

7pm-

11pm-

[mushymanrob]

15 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

You not see today's 00Z's? and yesterdays ECM and GEM 12Z's were suggesting flip flops weather

yep.... but the trend is positive for coldies. flip flops yes but a good chance of the colder option 'winning' and establishing a proper cold spell.

but hey - ive been wrong before lol.

[SLEETY]

Is the next northerly in the reliable time frame yet.Im talking t96

 

if not.then it’s not happening

[throwoff]

Can I coin the phrase Shrodingers toys?

They are simultaneously both in and out of the pram right now ?

[knocker]

Ah gently zephyrs

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not keen on 06Z, or todays ECM, just wondering, this could be a toppler, northerly arriving on 6th, milder from north/NW by Sat 9th

kinda a bit like this weak northerly this week

[SLEETY]

That’s cuz of warm Sst that Northerly not so cold.

 

who knows what going to happen in a weeks time or so

[Gavin Hannah]

Despite what a few of the Pros and experts believe, I can guarantee that the rest of December will be dominated by Northerly incursions. January will see the return of the Beasterly. And we will all have a merry Xmas!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Despite what a few of the Pros and experts believe, I can guarantee that the rest of December will be dominated by Northerly incursions. January will see the return of the Beasterly. And we will all have a merry Xmas!

like your thoughts, flashback to 80's/90's

[Snow Slave]

On 28/11/2017 at 12:03, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That even makes this mild-lover feel sad!

god.... I made sooo many spelling mistakes in that post i'm surprised you even understood what i was trying to say!

kids of death = Kiss of death! for snow! 

must proof read before hitting post

Have not even bothered to look at the models today...is there any improvement? I'm too scared to look...

[SLEETY]

 scared to look why.They don’t control the weather 

[Snow Slave]

On 28/11/2017 at 13:02, stainesbloke said:

I do feel for you but we are still technically in autumn. So a whole 3 months to go of winter proper. There are no ways of predicting the weather that far out that I'm aware of, anything could happen. I do wish some people on here that are snow starved would do something about it. A trip to somewhere snowy, like the Alps, Scandinavia, etc, would get a guaranteed snow fix. Doesn't have to be expensive. 

I know i keep reminding myself ive got another 12ish weeks of potential.

I wish it was that easy to just up and leave for a break to a glorious beautiful snowy destination like the Alps or Scandi, but money and time are super tight at the moment, its just not an option for us right now...so il just av to get my snow fix watching snow videos on the youtube, its really quite pathetic!

Wish I lived in Canada, in one of the places that get such great snow storms that when you go to leave the house in the morning you can't get out of the front door cos your greeted with a solid 7ft wall of snow! Snow Heaven.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by Snowstalker

[knocker]

Blizzard alert

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry but thats plainly not true, the meto update today talks of snow and ice- if your going to troll the thread at least get the facts right.

That's harsh calling them a troll?! Especially when they're correct. The forecast has shown for days that this this weekend is set to see less cold air spread across the country. 11°C  Sun/Mon/Tues down these parts.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's harsh calling them a troll?! Especially when they're correct. The forecast has shown for days that this this weekend is set to see less cold air spread across the country. 11°C  Sun/Mon/Tues down these parts.

No it isnt harsh- its codge, need i say more.

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the model thread i think that some are being a bit giddy (it's early December, it's nothing major if we don't see a raging cold spell) and also that others are being overly pecimistic. 

Based on the fact that we.. 

1) Have raging central Pacific trades 

and 2) Have the MJO passing phases 4 and 5 (indeed GFS indicates an amplyfying phase 5 down the line - bad phases)..

The to be honest i actually think we are doing quite well to be coming off no worse than seeing high pressure around the UK and cold air pouring into Europe. 

Folks need to take a breath and wait a week or two. If we see a higher amplitude MJO wave moving east and weaker trades then we may see something down the line. 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No it isnt harsh- its codge, need i say more.

huh? How so? Sunday's forecast mentioned it, and it has been said in every forecast since then. It's also shown in the models. What more evidence do you need? It amazes me, you coldies.. if things don't go your way, you have to take it out on anybody that even dares mention something that points to less cold.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Mapantz

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mapantz said:

huh? How so? Sunday's forecast mentioned it, and it has been said in every forecast since then. It's also shown in the models. What more evidence do you need? It amazes me, you coldies.. if things don't go your way, you have to take it out on anybody that even dares mention something that points to less cold.

Never mind.

[jvenge]

Oh. Grit order cancelled again?