Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

I don't care about having fun in snow though, I like snow in the UK because it's a novelty. I like snow in the UK because it's a change of pace to our usual dreary perpetual damp/muddy winter weather. I like snow because it's pretty (although admittedly it tends to get dirty if it sticks around too long).

Good points and fair enough. Snow near London doesn't stay white for long lol and it tends to partially melt quite quickly, looking very ugly. Definitely a nice change from the usual gloomy rainfest, but I'm happy with a sunny, cold regime like today. I do think that if a lack of snow here is that frustrating, then it's good to get a fix elsewhere. Explains why millions of people go on summer holidays to Spain etc. Never understood why proper coldies don't do the same in winter.

[cheese]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Good points and fair enough. Snow near London doesn't stay white for long lol and it tends to partially melt quite quickly, looking very ugly. Definitely a nice change from the usual gloomy rainfest, but I'm happy with a sunny, cold regime like today. I do think that if a lack of snow here is that frustrating, then it's good to get a fix elsewhere. Explains why millions of people go on summer holidays to Spain etc. Never understood why proper coldies don't do the same in winter.

The weather has been fine this November, plenty of frosty sunny days with very little rain, which is always great. If the rest of winter was like this then I wouldn't mind too much.

[stainesbloke]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

The weather has been fine this November, plenty of frosty sunny days with very little rain, which is always great. If the rest of winter was like this then I wouldn't mind too much.

Completely agree. Can get out and enjoy it too, without drama. 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Completely agree. Can get out and enjoy it too, without drama. 

Of course you can...However, should you see someone you know, you'll be in for a short 'wave' drama?

Edited November 28, 2017 by Ed Stone

[knocker]

There is a rumour doing the rounds that the forum may be going offline between 1600-1800 for routine maintenance. Extra men in white coats have been drafted in and are on standby.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

I don't care about having fun in snow though. I like snow in the UK because it's a novelty. I like snow in the UK because it's a change of pace to our usual dreary perpetual damp/muddy winter weather. I like snow in the UK because it makes everything look brighter - which at this time of year when the nights are long makes a really big difference. I appreciate that it's troublesome and people in the UK have no idea how to handle it, but I don't mind that. I didn't mind it in 2010 and I wouldn't mind it now. 

I think, when you're a weather enthusiast, you accept that certain types of weather cause problems - that's part of the game. I wouldn't want disruptive weather all the time but it's nice to have a change from the usual mediocre weather we get in the UK 90% of the time..

Absolutely, I agree with you. The weather here is often crap, generally rather boring 95% of the time with few extremes, which makes unusual conditions memorable and sometimes enjoyable. I just wish we coped better with snow and cold as it's not a new thing, and those who crave it obsessively went and found it. Always better to do something rather than have a drama and throw toys, every year.

Edited November 28, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Hodgheg]

Oh dear, another winter and here I find myself again. Plenty to be positive about already this year however. At least the models are showing constant mild southwesterlys, even if we don’t get snowmageddon.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Whether they get lost or not is entirely dependent on the 00 output. If it favours imminent blizzards and the UK plunged into the freezer then yes lost under the deluge but if warm zephyrs are mentioned the the silence will be absolutely deafening. I know not why  I mean surly true enthusiasts find something interesting in every analysis?

Sorry Malcolm, just thought your input was more suited to the more considered and nuanced in-depth discussion.  Forget I mentioned it!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Completely agree. Can get out and enjoy it too, without drama. 

Thirded.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sorry Malcolm, just thought your input was more suited to the more considered and nuanced in-depth discussion.  Forget I mentioned it!

No problem Chris, just me trying to be amusing.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Of course you can...However, should you see someone you know, you'll be in for a short 'wave' drama?

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

No problem Chris, just me trying to be amusing.

Thanks.

[mushymanrob]

i darent look in the mod thread, there is a real threat of a severe cold evolution imho, every northerly seems to be getting more and more potent.

cold weather fans do have something to be excited about.

[Snipper]

Don't really care what is going to happen in February or January for that matter. What is likely to happen during the coming week is my main interest. 

Got the fire alight and it is eating fuel at a rate of knots. 

So what is going to happen now as supposedly at this ranged it is suppose to be done and dusted?  All except for them gremlins that is. Love them gremlins that prove the experts wrong. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i darent look in the mod thread, there is a real threat of a severe cold evolution imho, every northerly seems to be getting more and more potent.

cold weather fans do have something to be excited about.

You not see today's 00Z's? and yesterdays ECM and GEM 12Z's were suggesting flip flops weather

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GEM still stinks, but next page number on this whiners thread will be good!

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

The life cycle of our weather models:
•    Boring weather prevails and the models predict zonality ad infinitum
•    There is a glimmer of interest at T+384 and a few users come out of hibernation
•    Interest appears at T+192 and 3 pages of posts per minute are spawned: information overload.
•    This is sustained to T+168 and a mass wave of excitement is induced
•    Half of the users spontaneously wet themselves; the other half preach caution saying it will never happen
•    Down to T+144 and the exciting weather is watered down to average benign conditions typical of the UK climate
•    One half of the users tell the other half that ‘I told you so’
•    A few users get very very cross about the weather not following the instructions of the models.
•    There are a few calls for the UKMO to be banned and for the GFS to be restricted to T+72 only. The ECM is absolute canon fodder.
•    The cross users are told by others not to be so ungrateful about the weather and that if they want to live in a very cold and bleak place they should move to Labrador, Siberia or Milton Keynes.
•    A few users paste their own posts from several days before demonstrating how cautious they had been.
•    To be additionally patronising a few users point out that “more experienced” or “more senior” members had been highlighting caution for weeks.
•    Someone even claims that they had predicted 2 weeks ago that something that had not yet happened would not happen.
•    Down to T+120 and excitement magically reappears in the models – next Wednesday is actually going to be a snowfest…maybe.
•    The other half of the users tell the original half that actually they “told everyone so”
•    Down to T+96 and the snowfest disappears again but a Brazilian weather model showing that it might be chilly in Aberdeen is posted to cheer everyone up.
•    We are told that this chilliness doesn’t count because it is home grown from a high pressure cell.
•    There is mass meltdown and hysteria as everyone realises that normal UK weather will take place.
•    Normal UK weather takes place; the forum is more quiet and still than a January snowfield under a ‘faux cold’ high pressure cell.
•    Repeat from step 2….
 

[NeilN]

I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, but with this volcano in Bali set to erupt anytime soon, and now another missle test from North Korea; can this influence our winter? I don't know how true this is, but I read constant nuclear testing in the early 1960s led to that famous winter. Perhaps all this (despite it being bad) is a blessing for us for a good winter? 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, but with this volcano in Bali set to erupt anytime soon, and now another missle test from North Korea; can this influence our winter? I don't know how true this is, but I read constant nuclear testing in the early 1960s led to that famous winter. Perhaps all this (despite it being bad) is a blessing for us for a good winter? 

I doubt that firing ICBMs will have any effect - the tests in the late 1950s were massive hydrogen bomb explosions.

[NeilN]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I doubt that firing ICBMs will have any effect - the tests in the late 1950s were massive hydrogen bomb explosions.

Thank you for this. I was just curious to know what sort of effect nuclear and missle testing had with the world's climate. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, nn2013 said:

Thank you for this. I was just curious to know what sort of effect nuclear and missle testing had with the world's climate. 

As I understand it, all NK's nuclear explosions have been underground.

[Mapantz]

An interesting data fact for my location .. I haven't gotten below 0.0 yet. I have managed to get at least one sub-zero night/morning every November, for the previous 7 years. Only two more days to keep that record going!

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 This is probably one of the most incredible, 1960's like chart I've seen produced. it honestly is absolutely stunning. 

Sleet here - guaranteed! 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

If anyone seriously thinks that 18z output will verify they're an idiot - I might make myself very unpopular, but it's going to be a massive outlier and can be disregarded with a high degree of confidence.

[V for Very Cold]

20 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If anyone seriously thinks that 18z output will verify they're an idiot - I might make myself very unpopular, but it's going to be a massive outlier and can be disregarded with a high degree of confidence.

On the other hand... imagine the reaction if the next run is an upgrade or even the same lollol