Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Mokidugway]

Now that you lot have Finnished perhaps you can get back to mod and toss some toys 

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

That's all from a single page.

That maybe so, but does it stop you from typing in ridiculous riddles? None of it makes sense, even to those who's first language is English.

 

 

Least we know why his name is tight. 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Least we know why his name is tight. 

??very odd!!

[DAVID SNOW]

Thinking back over past winters, I seem to remember that the gfs  is often rather good when attempting to model northern outbreaks?

[snowblizzard]

9 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Thinking back over past winters, I seem to remember that the gfs  is often rather good when attempting to model northern outbreaks?

Deleted

Edited November 27, 2017 by snowblizzard

[snowblizzard]

Slowly, it's back to reality this morning!

[stainesbloke]

17 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Last one before 2010 was 86 I think so due another one to make up for the 24 year gap between those two I think only one severe jan since 87 in 2010 ,so need a severe jan soon.

 

its like its not a true winter month anymore.

What is a 'true winter month' in this part of the world? It certainly isn't freezing and snowy, such episodes are generally quite infrequent and often brief (but the marginal conditions do sometimes deliver large snowfalls). You'd have to go back 400-odd years to the Little Ice Age to get regular 'proper' winter conditions in this country that last for months. Maybe such a cycle will occur again but 'normal' winters here are fairly mild and wet.

[Snipper]

So many on the other thread seem to be suffering from "never satisfieditus"

[SLEETY]

40 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

What is a 'true winter month' in this part of the world? It certainly isn't freezing and snowy, such episodes are generally quite infrequent and often brief (but the marginal conditions do sometimes deliver large snowfalls). You'd have to go back 400-odd years to the Little Ice Age to get regular 'proper' winter conditions in this country that last for months. Maybe such a cycle will occur again but 'normal' winters here are fairly mild and wet.

Hi.I meant when you look at the CET mean  for jan,since 87,the CET has been higher 26 out of 30 times.

The average CET is 3.2c for jan I think,which explains the lack of cold and snow in jan compared to previous times.

 

 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Hi.I meant when you look at the CET mean  for jan,since 87,the CET has been higher 26 out of 30 times.

The average CET is 3.2c for jan I think,which explains the lack of cold and snow in jan compared to previous times.

 

 

Yes, we've certainly seen a warming trend or been in a 'warmer cycle' of winters generally in the last 20 years or so. It may be due to global warming, reduced Arctic ice, a quiet sun, etc. Makes snow and cold a bit harder to achieve here but 2010 showed that it is possible and there'll be plenty more snowy and cold events to enjoy. But many on here have slightly unrealistic expectations!

[ArHu3]

5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Hi.I meant when you look at the CET mean  for jan,since 87,the CET has been higher 26 out of 30 times.

The average CET is 3.2c for jan I think,which explains the lack of cold and snow in jan compared to previous times.

 

 

It must be partly due the location, in de Bilt 11 winters have been colder than average since 1987, warmest was +2.6C warmer but coldest 5.8C colder than average 

Edited November 27, 2017 by ArHu3

[Northwest NI]

If I look over last 30 years in my part of the world, 1995,2000,2009,2010 are the winters that delivered sustained arctic snowy conditions for at least a week. That's an average of once every 7 or so years. I'm ready for another one in 2017. 

Incidently, all 4 involved Christmas snow.

[knocker]

Cornish Warming and undercutty

[V for Very Cold]

No snow forecast yet..... only 200 members in the mod thread ! Lol

[danthetan]

A few members were discussing the Pembrokeshire Dangler earlier. Living here, I have witnessed it in action, so I managed to find in the archives the chart which produced 10 inch's of snow at sea level back in 2004. The conditions look right for the Dangler to form weds night and Thursday but wether it will be cold enough to turn to snow we will have to wait. Although we have hills @500M so lying snow up there isn't out of the question.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Cornish Warming and undercutty

We're all happy, then - not too cold here, warm down your way and cold for everyone else.

[Seasonal Trim]

I can see where this is going. Models are going to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Please god don't let this happen!!!! 

[daz_4]

On 26. 11. 2017 at 19:21, ArHu3 said:

No, just look at that epic cold spell (in the Netherlands) February 2012 and the gfs predictions shortly before that cold spell 

Sure that was special but majority of cold spells end up watered down in the end. At least in the past few years 

[ArHu3]

8 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Sure that was special but majority of cold spells end up watered down in the end. At least in the past few years 

The setup often worsens, I'm talking about the predicted temperatures which seem to get overestimated 

[pegg24]

29 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

I can see where this is going. Models are going to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Please god don't let this happen!!!! 

Yep that's exactley what s going to happen remember between Xmas new year  last year people, were saying we were going to get buried with some of charts next day all disappeared.

Edited November 27, 2017 by pegg24

[V for Very Cold]

Open question.... does the mod thread have the same amount of squabbling in the middle of summer?? 

[Mokidugway]

The algorithms always over play cold then the rampers take hold ,  a recipe for disappointment  

Edited November 27, 2017 by Mokidugway

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Modern w i n t e r is taking effect, I see - cooler few days, then mild and wet after the weekend.  If lowland England ever gets proper cold and lying snow for more than a couple of hours I'll drop the hypothesis, but I doubt that's going to happen this winter.  Thank goodness I was able to reform myself as a mild fan.

[knocker]

The Mod thread should really be renamed in winter to 'Creche for Chionophiles'

[booferking]

Just now, knocker said:

The Mod thread should really be renamed in winter to 'Creche for Chionophiles'

The Mod thread is great craic come join us.