Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Mokidugway]

I think this sums up our predicament nicely 

[V for Very Cold]

Its like being a kid and watching Dr Who from behind the sofa

the charts that is...not the mod thread lol!

Edited November 22, 2017 by V for Very Cold

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

If, as someone in the model thread suggested, the ECM set-up would result in cold rain in my area (East Anglia), I'd much prefer a Euro High and a dry, cloudy south-westerly.

[knocker]

But wait the ext EPS means lose some amplification oomph

[I remember Atlantic 252]

45 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If, as someone in the model thread suggested, the ECM set-up would result in cold rain in my area (East Anglia), I'd much prefer a Euro High and a dry, cloudy south-westerly.

Exactly Chris me too, these charts to me suggest mostly rain away from the highest ground, uppers not cold enough, time of year maybe, dunno, but nothing exciting here

[ArHu3]

37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Exactly Chris me too, these charts to me suggest mostly rain away from the highest ground, uppers not cold enough, time of year maybe, dunno, but nothing exciting here

Isn't it that these blocks increase the chance of a ssw later on? 

 

 

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Huw_Davies4/publication/234287840_Blocking_precursors_to_stratospheric_sudden_warmings/links/550aa2cd0cf285564094f8c5.pdf?inViewer=true&disableCoverPage=true&origin=publication_detail

 

Looking at the article we would prefer pacific blocking though

Edited November 22, 2017 by ArHu3

[V for Very Cold]

own up...who left the freezer door open???

[draztik]

Looking on at the MOD thread this morning, fascinating stuff! 

[joggs]

Like a lemmings meeting this morning in mod thread.We could only expect slight downgrades after yesterday's output,surely?.

Fiddlers elbow,yoyos,tarts knickers :0

[KDME]

4 hours ago, joggs said:

Like a lemmings meeting this morning in mod thread.We could only expect slight downgrades after yesterday's output,surely?.

I am waiting for the downgrades OR to be told that it will be a 2 day coldish event .... Pessimistic?  Maybe but it is what I have been taught to expect from the experiences of past years.

 

[joggs]

18 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

I am waiting for the downgrades OR to be told that it will be a 2 day coldish event .... Pessimistic?  Maybe but it is what I have been taught to expect from the experiences of past years.

 

Looks like a weeks worth of colder weather on the way with snow on hills and low ground in north west.

Maybe some lower ground down to the Midlands ish when the trough parks up to the east before cold and settled weather prevails with sharp frosts.

That's the way it's looked for a couple of days now with the models showing different variations.

Uppers have never been conducive to widespread snow as shown on the models.

[knocker]

Looking quite favorable with temps just a tad below average

 

[V for Very Cold]

“Get the cold in first”.... a lovely chilly start to begin the winter with. Despite my gas, wood and coal bills... I’m hoping it’s a good sign for the winter months. Haven’t experienced snow in Shropshire.... so would like to see some and get some pics to post on here

[shotski]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking quite favorable with temps just a tad below average

 

Is that nuts I hear being chewed in the Camborne area.........

remember, the trend is your friend 

Edited November 23, 2017 by shotski

[GPC]

Big snowfalls in Iceland.

http://www.ruv.is/sarpurinn/ruv/frettir/20171123

See from 10.15.

Hope it's coming this way !

[snowsummer]

I dont think theres  been one single post in the model thread i havent read since the day i joined. (Yes, i need to get out more.) Every spring i await the obvious start of summer 1976. Every autumn i await the obvious start of winter 1963.  I tell anyone who will listen that the said event is on the way. Im keeping quiet this year as i await the arrival ( on boxing day!)of what will eventually come to be known simply  as the  "winter of 2018".  

[knocker]

Very early this morning during the weather forecast on R4 Helen spoke of 'crisp sunshine'. Should this phrase be added to the others in the MOD thread lexicon? It should fit well with upside down advection and reverse topplers.

Edited November 24, 2017 by knocker

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I see the cold is disappearing on the model runs around 72 hours out, as it always does!

[throwoff]

What I see in the models is 15ft of snow across the country.

But them I am always a glass half full sort of bloke.

[Timmytour]

I'll try asking this question in here as it seems it wasn't deemed fit to be in the Mod thread.....

I appreciate that an SSW might prompt the models to start showintg us the kind of blocked scenarios we coldies dream of.  But when they already show those blocked scenarios, is it possible an SSW can end up prompting them to revert to zonal or Barlett?

In other words, could we end up cursing an actual SSW instead of hoping for one?

 

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'll try asking this question in here as it seems it wasn't deemed fit to be in the Mod thread.....

I appreciate that an SSW might prompt the models to start showintg us the kind of blocked scenarios we coldies dream of.  But when they already show those blocked scenarios, is it possible an SSW can end up prompting them to revert to zonal or Barlett?

In other words, could we end up cursing an actual SSW instead of hoping for one?

 

Yes, I believe it happened following the exceptionally cold December 2010 there was a major SSW in January? It did not work in our favour, it worked against us, the winter peaked very early in that winter. 

[snowblizzard]

No posts in moans, ramps & banter for 3 hours, I'm thinking that must be good news.

Seems I was wrong as it looks to be going pear-shaped already as per usual! 

What do we have to do to get severe cold & wintry into UK?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

No posts in moans, ramps & banter for 3 hours, I'm thinking that must be good news.

Seems I was wrong as it looks to be going pear-shaped already as per usual! 

What do we have to do to get severe cold & wintry into UK?

I think Tamara's post in the Model thread describes the factors that may well bring  a cold period to a rapid end, though, from today's output, it would seem that there's a fair chance that there won't be much of a cold period anyway, at least away from the Scottish mountains.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

TMW bringing reality to previously-cold models, I see, with the ECM about to flatten the 'block', bringing it into line with the Met Office model.

Edited November 24, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

TMW bringing reality to previously-cold models, I see, with the ECM about to flatten the 'block', bringing it into line with the Met Office model.

Hope this is tongue in cheek.Looks good to me.lol