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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
58 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Wow, actually had no idea that ECMWF was based in the U.K. ?That really surprised me! Can’t believe I didn’t know that before! Even though I’ve visited their website in the past

Just assumed it was based in one of the continental countries in Mainland Europe!

Having read that article that knocker posted, looks as though while the ECMWF will be opening up a data centre in Italy, looks as though the main headquarters will still be in the UK :) 

Sorry, I’m just really fascinated by what I just found out (lol) ?

Yes the ECMWF headquarters is at Shinfield Park, Reading, the same place where the the METO had their specialist training centre after they moved from Dunstable, I remember having a look around the ECMWF headquarters many moons ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I always dread coming to the model thread when things are looking good for cold and seeing the Model Moans, Ramps and Banter thread has been more recently posted on than the main discussion thread!

So shame on you two for temporarily making me get ready to eject toys from my pram!!! 

Mind you....this post won't help will it.............   :)

 

 

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Now that the ECM ensembles are freely available (for how long who knows, surely must be a glitch in the system) - one can have a bit of fun looking at charts representing entirely unlikely events. I give you ramp of the winter so far - take a bow, ensemble member 35!!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112100_360_18_215_m35.thumb.png.14d4073ae4b0762106ef654aeca44363.png

Seriously though, quite a number of ensembles looking snowy for the start of December.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Now that the ECM ensembles are freely available (for how long who knows, surely must be a glitch in the system) - one can have a bit of fun looking at charts representing entirely unlikely events. I give you ramp of the winter so far - take a bow, ensemble member 35!!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112100_360_18_215_m35.thumb.png.14d4073ae4b0762106ef654aeca44363.png

Seriously though, quite a number of ensembles looking snowy for the start of December.

Yes i think its fair to say the UK has a ticket for the raffle during the next couple of weeks- while deep penetrating cold looks unlikely ala 2010, there is scope for wintry suprises on higher ground, but not exclusively high ground per meto update.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Now that the ECM ensembles are freely available (for how long who knows, surely must be a glitch in the system) - one can have a bit of fun looking at charts representing entirely unlikely events. I give you ramp of the winter so far - take a bow, ensemble member 35!!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112100_360_18_215_m35.thumb.png.14d4073ae4b0762106ef654aeca44363.png

Seriously though, quite a number of ensembles looking snowy for the start of December.

I thought that was in Cm for a moment then realised it was inches.   Mind you  shows how wrong these models are, iIdont remember it being that snowy in May!  in all seriousness  if the ECm is the European model and its based here why then is the date set out like those lot across the pond?..makes my blood boil.

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
20 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

So shame on you two for temporarily making me get ready to eject toys from my pram!!!  :)

That was actually our plan! ??

Mind you, if the models water down their chilly outlooks, then I suspect the whole model thread will be nothing but full of thrown out  stuffed teddies, binkies, laptops, phones, baby bottles and half-eaten cookies! 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Now that the ECM ensembles are freely available (for how long who knows, surely must be a glitch in the system) - one can have a bit of fun looking at charts representing entirely unlikely events. I give you ramp of the winter so far - take a bow, ensemble member 35!!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017112100_360_18_215_m35.thumb.png.14d4073ae4b0762106ef654aeca44363.png

Seriously though, quite a number of ensembles looking snowy for the start of December.

The snow really does ❤️ Scotland, doesn't it?

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
3 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:

SO how many ppl are keeping their fingers crossed atm ???:yahoo:

I'm keeping mine firmly crossed that the models are wrong & we can keep the temperatures of the last couple of days through 'til March. But I don't think you meant that!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral
  • Location: Wirral

Do folks now  truly believe another spell similar to  Dec 2010 might now be on the cards? That would be absolutely incredible, not to mention fantastic. (Been following this thread (and TWO's) model analysis and GWV's too , very closely plus many others via Twitter over last 3 months -again same as every yr for last decade!). we sea swim every day of the yr and so want to swim the Mersey in a Blizzard! 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
10 hours ago, weirpig said:

I thought that was in Cm for a moment then realised it was inches.   Mind you  shows how wrong these models are, iIdont remember it being that snowy in May!  in all seriousness  if the ECm is the European model and its based here why then is the date set out like those lot across the pond?..makes my blood boil.

I always thought that messed up date format was something the US inherited from the British ? seriously what is the date format  in the UK?   

 

Oh I hate that date format too, messes up sorting so bad (hate the / too, looks too much like a 7 or 1,especially when written, use yyyy-mm-dd,  or dd-mm-yyyy if you are old fashioned and not practical minded  )

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It was never going to be anything other than a downgrade today, charts (more particularly ECM) were stunning last night.

What we don't want to see is the continual downgrading through the next 24-36hrs. Hopefully a steadying of the ship and some upgrades to follow.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

The weather is really chopping & changing at the moment!

But, we just cannot ignore the Atlantic influence.

Personally, I think it's still too early to get over excited about wintry conditions as we are still in Autumn.

But, hopefully the blocking pattern will persist into December & January and provide the UK with some decent wintry spells.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Cross model agreement, then you can say it will snow, until then, not convinced. Don't think the weather models have a scooby at the moment, that's why they flip every day, so pointless commenting on them.:unknw:

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
4 hours ago, SteveB said:

It was never going to be anything other than a downgrade today, charts (more particularly ECM) were stunning last night.

What we don't want to see is the continual downgrading through the next 24-36hrs. Hopefully a steadying of the ship and some upgrades to follow.

In the era of TMW I think downgrades for cold were always going to happen, and I expect that, as TMW becomes more influential, the GFS, which tends towards showing flat, zonal outputs will become ever more reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Must admit i'm already feeling model fatigue !!

After careful consideration and after reading the latest meto outlook my confidence in a colder outlook is diminishing.Maybe its partly down to years of lets downs when the worst output for coldies tends to be the correct one, i'm not sure.

Either way after feeling very optimistic last night i'm expecting no climbdown from GFS, rather the others aligning with GFS.

Hope i'm wrong mind.

Won't be long til the 12zs come out. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

Tension! I’ll have no fingernails left soon! Lol

and I guess this is one of the reasons we are all drawn back... again again and again !

Edited by V for Very Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Roll on April.

Storm chasing is so much more interesting than cold chasing & so much less dramatic.

Unless you live on a hill up north then I struggle to see much interest for the SACRA folk.  

Looks chilly, a bit of cold rain or sleet, a few frosts and some winter sunshine around.  Admittedly, the scottish skiing industry look to have a good start to the season.

For me personally, the current modelled outlook can be summed up by the word......

gallery_22643_437_2489.thumb.jpg.0795e658a2884feb995c499b6bce1a29.jpg

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