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Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
53 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

People posting 9-10 day charts and ignoring all output before then.

 

Especially at that time scale 99% of the time they never ever verify

look at recents gfs fl charts ,from bitter cold to now very mild.completely useless.

Exactly!  Anything past a week is a possibility ... why do people take it as gospel?  The warm prediction predicted in the most recent charts is as valid as the freezing charts from 2 days ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
22 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Exactly!  Anything past a week is a possibility ... why do people take it as gospel?  The warm prediction predicted in the most recent charts is as valid as the freezing charts from 2 days ago!

But that's why there's as much gloom about now as there was excitement 2 days ago. It's a question that's as valid  when the excitement's around as when the gloom is.....

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

My phrase   ""of course will all know the <choose appropriate model> has a particular bias towards <choose a shown outcome> 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
12 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

What is actually causing or driving these regular & persistent Euro High's that seem spoil the UK winters in terms of cold?

I suspect one thing is the deep cold they keep getting in parts of the USA as it impacts the jet

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

And as the jet sinks sharply into Europe :shok:

gfs_uv250_natl_55.thumb.png.4faea463216613c4a6eef7d633b64735.png

Could be nasty in terms of high winds.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

People posting 9-10 day charts and ignoring all output before then.

 

Especially at that time scale 99% of the time they never ever verify

look at recents gfs fl charts ,from bitter cold to now very mild.completely useless.

This occurs every winter, without fail and leads to the all the wrist-slashing and wailing when it, inevitably, goes wrong. Same in summer, 9-10 day charts rarely materialise, unless they show crap weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

3 GFS runs in a row now to show an Indian summer for next week (south), now where are the flip flops

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
9 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Indeed! That's what I do. Spain in summer is just gorgeous, OH and I go down there as much as we can and love it so much that we bought a cheap apartment lol. 

Millions of us Brits head to warmer climes in summer. Coldies should head to colder climes in winter for a proper cold and snow fix. Wouldn't be so much drama in here!

Must agree with those saying dry weather preferably over winter, be it mild or cold. Endless Atlantic storms, cloud, rain and wind is very depressing. 

 

Got to admit repeated Atlantic storms with  rain and wind is not my cup of tea also,one,two yes,makes things interesting but not what has become the norm here.  Cold and  dry is perfect,a crisp winters day is unbeatable. :) Just a pity that cold hunters have to pay such a premium,just not fair! :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
7 minutes ago, markyo said:

Got to admit repeated Atlantic storms with  rain and wind is not my cup of tea also,one,two yes,makes things interesting but not what has become the norm here.  Cold and  dry is perfect,a crisp winters day is unbeatable. :) Just a pity that cold hunters have to pay such a premium,just not fair! :nonono:

Today was perfection. Clear, deep blue skies all day, frosty start, little wind. That'd do me for most of winter. I suppose Atlantic storms are exciting in some ways but when they damage personal property, not so much. Let's not write off winter before it starts, rather have the rainy crap before Christmas and get cold and snow in January, when it's more likely to stick.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Today was perfection. Clear, deep blue skies all day, frosty start, little wind. That'd do me for most of winter. I suppose Atlantic storms are exciting in some ways but when they damage personal property, not so much. Let's not write off winter before it starts, rather have the rainy crap before Christmas and get cold and snow in January, when it's more likely to stick.

Today was pretty well bang on,drove to work watching a beautiful sunrise,really cheered me up then by 3ish with the clear skies that lovely low sun made it feel so seasonal. Each to their own,mine are days like this:)

Edited by markyo
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Posted
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves and anything extreme
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland

Im pretty new to all this is there any where I can find a list of what all the acronyms stand for....the one that I cannot work out which I see the most is FI.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, J-Man said:

Im pretty new to all this is there any where I can find a list of what all the acronyms stand for....the one that I cannot work out which I see the most is FI.....

hover mouse over word, can see it means fantasy island, meaning super unreliable chart so far ahead it won't happen

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Posted
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves and anything extreme
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hover mouse over word, can see it means fantasy island, meaning super unreliable chart so far ahead it won't happen

Great thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
29 minutes ago, J-Man said:

Great thanks.

Welcome! Hope you enjoy the banter!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

A tad nippy starting work at 8am' but so much better than the usual ,mild cloudy, dross that seems to be normal for these parts.  

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 hours ago, knocker said:

And as the jet sinks sharply into Europe :shok:

gfs_uv250_natl_55.thumb.png.4faea463216613c4a6eef7d633b64735.png

Looks visually pleasing to me, it will help feed lower pressure in Mainland Europe so that's good not to your fancy however. And hopefully herald a stormy spell of weather, Autumn has been benign... it will make up for it at one point rather it be now that mid winter please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

I suspect one thing is the deep cold they keep getting in parts of the USA as it impacts the jet

The jet leaving the US in this case is actually sufficiently weak and well angled that it's not a problem. Our issue is that the polar vortex is too far west and hence we see a west based NAO dragging the base of the trough to our south west and not east.

A proper Euro High is rarely due to thermal gradient near the US but rather poor placement of the vortex. A zonal bartlett is normally more the result of enhancing the gradient (though even then it can also be blamed on the +AO).

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Pity that the models seem to suggest cold again next weekend; with much of the south needing rain, it would have been useful to have had a couple of wet, mild weeks at least.  Once we've had the rain we need, a Bartlett setup would be well-received by me, with cloud maintaining mild overnight temperatures and no risk of snow and the problems associated with that sort of weather.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
41 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Pity that the models seem to suggest cold again next weekend; with much of the south needing rain, it would have been useful to have had a couple of wet, mild weeks at least.  Once we've had the rain we need, a Bartlett setup would be well-received by me, with cloud maintaining mild overnight temperatures and no risk of snow and the problems associated with that sort of weather.

I prefer Bartlett to southerly lows and days and days of rain stuck at 5C

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