Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, SteveB said:

As I mentioned before, it's really quite hard to get snow to low levels in England away from the East that benefits from Easterlies.

Here in the West, we rely on near nirvana set ups to get snow these day's. I'm sure it never used to be like that. My parents remember frequent snow events in the 50/60/70's , pretty much ever Winter if not every other Winter a snow event that caused disruption to travel etc.

I can recall 4 or 5 in the last 30yrs that equate to the same thing.

And like I've just said, the last two occasions there was snow imby the conditions were far from nirvana. A northwesterly with -7 uppers and a westerly with -5 uppers. But granted I don't live on the Severn Estuary.

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, SteveB said:

As I mentioned before, it's really quite hard to get snow to low levels in England away from the East that benefits from Easterlies.

Here in the West, we rely on near nirvana set ups to get snow these day's. I'm sure it never used to be like that. My parents remember frequent snow events in the 50/60/70's , pretty much ever Winter if not every other Winter a snow event that caused disruption to travel etc.

I can recall 4 or 5 in the last 30yrs that equate to the same thing.

I tell ya, summut changed & it ain't for the better....

It' makes things even worse now we can watch our Winters implode into another mild mush via our computers.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/snow-in-the-uk

The actual stats show something different especially for your coastal location.

Memory is a pretty deceptive tool. 

 

[V for Very Cold]

Well the mod thread is taking a pasting as the outputs swing back and forth..... busier now the models are hinting at cold

Where does FI lie atm???

this is becoming like Foucaults Pendulum - 24 hours you're back to where you started!.....is this a sign of the winter to come?

Edited November 15, 2017 by V for Very Cold

[Sn0wmad79]

No idea how this winter will pan out but I was under the impression it will be mild & wet. However the large delivery company I work for has issued this update today and it has been many years since a bulletin like this was dropped out, make of it as you will  Interesting

Quote

 

**** Peak Weather Contingency

We have been tracking the anticipated weather conditions for the peak trading period - due to the increased likelihood of snow this year we have made the following provisions:

• 150 weather contingency trailers on standby across the country.
• Proactive gritting at all sort centres and largest service centres.
• Stockpile of grit, shovels and personal protective equipment is already in stock across all sites.
• City and rural service split in key cities e.g. Aberdeen to allow isolation and continuity of service.
• The ************ is monitoring anticipatory weather conditions in real time and will proactively. communicate to clients as weather changes and if adjustments need to be made in the event of adverse weather.

Should you require any further information please get in touch.

Kind Regards,

 

***** ******** ****** ******

 

[Sn0wmad79]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/snow-in-the-uk

The actual stats show something different especially for your coastal location.

Memory is a pretty deceptive tool. 

 

Absolute rubbish those charts. Oldham is in the fairly snow-less zone on them but we do actually get quite an amount over the whole winter. Classic setups that send snow our way are always missed by there forecasts too, I've lost count how many times we are forecast nothing and get hammered.

Edited November 15, 2017 by CraigofOldham

[V for Very Cold]

4 minutes ago, CraigofOldham said:

No idea how this winter will pan out but I was under the impression it will be mild & wet. However the large delivery company I work for has issued this update today and it has been many years since a bulletin like this was dropped out, make of it as you will  Interesting

 

you've got to wonder where the logistics companies (and the bookies) are getting their info from!

Or are they all Daily Express readers???

[knocker]

That wicked European high has put the hex on Oslo

[Sn0wmad79]

2 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

you've got to wonder where the logistics companies (and the bookies) are getting their info from!

Or are they all Daily Express readers???

LOL i was going to add "and they don't source their weather data from the like of  Doomy Express". And they don't drop updates out like this willy nilly. Being a huge company they obviously pay Met Office for a professional service 

[V for Very Cold]

Just now, CraigofOldham said:

LOL i was going to add "and they don't source their weather data from the like of  Doomy Express". And they don't drop updates out like this willy nilly. Being a huge company they obviously pay Met Office for a professional service 

I know lol...... seems like the MetO may well have an "interesting" winter forecast given the warnings coming out of various sources!!!

[V for Very Cold]

I'm so easy to please- a few pretty cold/snow charts and I'm off home with a spring in my step, scattering "likes" hither and thither and putting an order for coal! lol

 

 

[knocker]

A day 10 chart 6 hours later LoL

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

A day 10 chart 6 hours later LoL

Indeed- ukmet model says no to any cold for the uk tho, imho of course.:)

[SteveB]

2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/snow-in-the-uk

The actual stats show something different especially for your coastal location.

Memory is a pretty deceptive tool. 

 

That showns less than 5 day per average for my location.

Memory is fine, and I'm sure my parents are too.

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, SteveB said:

That showns less than 5 day per average for my location.

Memory is fine, and I'm sure my parents are too.

Those Met Office charts are accurate for my location. Am sure your parents are of very sound mind but you can't just ignore statistics either. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

For once I pick ECM over GFS to be right

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, CraigofOldham said:

No idea how this winter will pan out but I was under the impression it will be mild & wet. However the large delivery company I work for has issued this update today and it has been many years since a bulletin like this was dropped out, make of it as you will  Interesting

 

**** Peak Weather Contingency

We have been tracking the anticipated weather conditions for the peak trading period - due to the increased likelihood of snow this year we have made the following provisions:

• 150 weather contingency trailers on standby across the country.
• Proactive gritting at all sort centres and largest service centres.
• Stockpile of grit, shovels and personal protective equipment is already in stock across all sites.
• City and rural service split in key cities e.g. Aberdeen to allow isolation and continuity of service.
• The ************ is monitoring anticipatory weather conditions in real time and will proactively. communicate to clients as weather changes and if adjustments need to be made in the event of adverse weather.

Should you require any further information please get in touch.

Kind Regards,

 

                                                                                         PS: We also have an even greater stockpile of wellies, brollies and BBQ's just incase!

[Evening thunder]

So it seems that unsurprisingly the charts/trends that were showing well into FI might have been wrong (unless tonights GFS/GEM are more on the mark). but then that's normally the case. Although not too many charts showed uppers low enough for proper cold or widespread/lowland snow anyway really.

If last winter and this summer has taught us anything it is that we shouldn't get our hopes up over charts, model trends, and even what the teleconnections/experienced members suggest.. as the good looking stuff has been wrong, and even I got sucked in.

Still, if this shifts these omnipresent high pressure just to our S/SE/SW that have given so much boring weather recently and over the last couple of years, that'd be a bonus for me. However I expect they'll be back soon.. and on the ECM tonight we don't even get rid of them really, until they are back with a vengeance (so it will probably be near the mark). Why is it that no matter what's shown and looks like happening, the reality just defaults to that?!

Edited November 15, 2017 by Evening thunder

[James1979]

I see the models are hinting at 40c, a spanish plume and mega storms at day 220. Can’t wait, surely it’s nailed on at that range.

[Froze were the Days]

10 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

That statistic is true but it's a mean measurement. We don't get 4-5 days a year with lying snow in the SE, we never did. We get a proper dumping every 5-10 years or so and the odd transient event. The last 4 years have been fairly normal imo, I've seen snow falling each winter and a temporary covering in 2 of those years, even here near Heathrow. We did have a number of decent cold/snowy spells in some 70's-90's winters but also a load of those winters were mild and snowless. One change I have noticed recently is a lack of easterly winds in winter. 

Totally agree with the lack of easterlies of recent winters...also with the mean of snow lying, yes the many poor winters over a decade is offset by 1 or 2 snowy ones. Saying that though the last 4 winters have been as bad as anything I've experienced (I live in Essex) in my lifetime. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Totally agree with the lack of easterlies of recent winters...also with the mean of snow lying, yes the many poor winters over a decade is offset by 1 or 2 snowy ones. Saying that though the last 4 winters have been as bad as anything I've experienced (I live in Essex) in my lifetime. 

nowadays in TMW, Easterlies are less cold as well of course, all produced mainly rain/sleet

Edited November 15, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Country Boy]

Boy am I confused... Newspapers quoting a big freeze on the way, latest GFS

Seem to back that next week.  But all Iam reading on the forums of netweather

Is  its going to be shorts weather.....still confused

 

 

[northwestsnow]

I confidently predict the reactions in houses up and down the country when EC comes out in an hour-

[northwestsnow]

Yep...EC  is a shocker.

Quelle suprise..not.

[V for Very Cold]

Is this the year of the yo-yo? never mind the roller coaster!

[sundog]

Give it up lads I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad ,it's not happening on this occasion. How long has this nonsense rumbled on for? Let it go and move on.