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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland

Nobody likes climate change, but wouldn't it be nice if even one of the changes could.bring positive change to the British Isles? Milder, wetter, and windier seems to be the way of it, with the temperature of the rain being the only difference between seasons. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
3 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

In an unusual twist, its ending before it begins this year.

Same every year........

At this time in Nov the SANTA SHAKER is showing 15% chance of Snow in my area :yahoo::pardon:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Same every year........

At this time in Nov the SANTA SHAKER is showing 15% chance of Snow in my area :yahoo::pardon:

 

Bet the bookies give you better odds than 13/2 lol

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
6 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Bet the bookies give you better odds than 13/2 lol

Bookies should be looking at the https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

CFS BASED :D

It was my way of saying lighten up folks it's Mid November :drunk-emoji:

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Think that word sums up this evenings mood for most cold lovers on here. Its still early in the season and the mood will lighten again, hopefully! 

c

depression.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Think that word sums up this evenings mood for most cold lovers on here. Its still early in the season and the mood will lighten again, hopefully! 

c

depression.jpg

It is early isn't it. We shouldn't expect much yet anyway. Most good Winters don't get going until January in lowland Britain anyway, so there's more than enough time yet. It is still Autumn only as well and with what the models were showing until recently it can be easy to forget that. Winter isn't over it hasn't even begun.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
10 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It is early isn't it. We shouldn't expect much yet anyway. Most good Winters don't get going until January in lowland Britain anyway, so there's more than enough time yet. It is still Autumn only as well and with what the models were showing until recently it can be easy to forget that. Winter isn't over it hasn't even begun.

Hallelujah. Has the penny dropped for some, lol? You're quite right, cold and snow is rather rare in our winters, full stop, especially in the south. Cold and snow before Christmas is exceptional, it does happen but only very occasionally. Nothing to say it won't snow before Christmas this year, it's nearly 6 weeks away after all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Not sure snow is that rare in our winters even in the south, yes becoming rarer now days. In the 70's/80's/90's we generally experienced a majority of winters/early springs with at least a day or so of snow falling or settling - I think I saw a statistic in the early 2000's that the south east had a mean of 4/5 days with lying snow per winter.

The last 4 winters have been really poor having experienced only 1 day - a slushy dusting lying where I live (gone in an hour) :(

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Can someone point out the usefulness of seasonal models again,when at the the moment even 5-6 days ahead is proving difficult to model correctly .

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Can someone point out the usefulness of seasonal models again,when at the the moment even 5-6 days ahead is proving difficult to model correctly .

 

 

Seasonal models dont worry about weekly detail and instead focus on likely synoptics over a season and then play percentages.

For example, I think atlantic driven is most likely as we enter December. ECM EPS and GEFS might disagree on some detail, and both may be wrong, but that doesn't change the most likely influences come December. If during that time its south westerlies, polar maritime or a more zonal flow, a seasonal model doesn't care. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
11 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Not sure snow is that rare in our winters even in the south, yes becoming rarer now days. In the 70's/80's/90's we generally experienced a majority of winters/early springs with at least a day or so of snow falling or settling - I think I saw a statistic in the early 2000's that the south east had a mean of 4/5 days with lying snow per winter.

The last 4 winters have been really poor having experienced only 1 day - a slushy dusting lying where I live (gone in an hour) :(

That statistic is true but it's a mean measurement. We don't get 4-5 days a year with lying snow in the SE, we never did. We get a proper dumping every 5-10 years or so and the odd transient event. The last 4 years have been fairly normal imo, I've seen snow falling each winter and a temporary covering in 2 of those years, even here near Heathrow. We did have a number of decent cold/snowy spells in some 70's-90's winters but also a load of those winters were mild and snowless. One change I have noticed recently is a lack of easterly winds in winter. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
12 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Hallelujah. Has the penny dropped for some, lol? You're quite right, cold and snow is rather rare in our winters, full stop, especially in the south. Cold and snow before Christmas is exceptional, it does happen but only very occasionally. Nothing to say it won't snow before Christmas this year, it's nearly 6 weeks away after all. 

And to add to that, I'd say over half of the snow events here at least have either been unexpected or from very marginal situations. Both last January's and January 2015's snow came off a westerly with almost unfavourable temps and dewpoints. Compare that to February 2012's rain at -1C temps and dewpoints lol. I remember an unexpected snowfall in December 2004 from a slider within an overall Atlantic setup, and January 2008 simply from evaporative cooling. We really don't need nirvana lol, and almost always won't get it in December.

Winter gets more interesting in January as the vortex loses steam and the continent/SSTs have cooled further.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
38 minutes ago, knocker said:

Time to remember again that the trend is your friend Siidney

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.37f206fe3f328eb0173c9c8b9e50388f.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_53.thumb.png.9cd5f3e81af392ebbb0ad6cda041bac1.png

I'm not very good at reading these charts ,what is it showing exactly.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I'm not very good at reading these charts ,what is it showing exactly.

Left chart is the 850 temps right chart is the 2m temps both are yellow/orange for the UK so for the period covered we can expect some mild temps if they are correct

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's the constant references to Sidney that baffles me. :pardon:

Its a reference to Knocker's pet (a squirrel - Sydney) who comes out when it starts to get mild in autumn and winter.

 Unfortunately he has not had a good sleep for three or four years now!!:friends::pardon:

 MIA

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Put alot of weight on to i reckon..

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
4 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Its a reference to Knocker's pet (a squirrel - Sydney) who comes out when it starts to get mild in autumn and winter.

 Unfortunately he has not had a good sleep for three or four years now!!:friends::pardon:

 MIA

 

Yeah it's a wonder he can keep his eyes open. A good harsh Winter with a good 3 months sleep would do the little fella a world of good.:)

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
4 hours ago, MP-R said:

And to add to that, I'd say over half of the snow events here at least have either been unexpected or from very marginal situations. Both last January's and January 2015's snow came off a westerly with almost unfavourable temps and dewpoints. Compare that to February 2012's rain at -1C temps and dewpoints lol. I remember an unexpected snowfall in December 2004 from a slider within an overall Atlantic setup, and January 2008 simply from evaporative cooling. We really don't need nirvana lol, and almost always won't get it in December.

Winter gets more interesting in January as the vortex loses steam and the continent/SSTs have cooled further.

As I mentioned before, it's really quite hard to get snow to low levels in England away from the East that benefits from Easterlies.

Here in the West, we rely on near nirvana set ups to get snow these day's. I'm sure it never used to be like that. My parents remember frequent snow events in the 50/60/70's , pretty much ever Winter if not every other Winter a snow event that caused disruption to travel etc.

I can recall 4 or 5 in the last 30yrs that equate to the same thing.

I tell ya, summut changed & it ain't for the better....

It' makes things even worse now we can watch our Winters implode into another mild mush via our computers.

Edited by SteveB
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