Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Northwest NI]

13 minutes ago, Snipper said:

So how many months before winter officially ends?

In an unusual twist, its ending before it begins this year.

[Wimbledon88]

14 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

In an unusual twist, its ending before it begins this year.

Brilliant!!!

Yes,I've never read such rubbish on here before as today's weeping and nashing if teeth. Leaves are still on trees diwn here!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Very interesting output posted in the "other forum" demonstrates data to support the modernwinter hypothesis:

Actually your sig is accurate Chris, and we are exactly same age, do you remember Atlantic 252?

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Actually your sig is accurate Chris, and we are exactly same age, do you remember Atlantic 252?

 

Sadly I don't.

[Tracy Flick]

I love how 20 GFS perturbations somehow contrive to produce 25 different clusters.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'm starting to think that the models aren't that fit for purpose really. Sure they're pretty helpful for the next hand full of days, but beyond a week they can come up with nearly anything. Beyond that they just seem to flip and flop all too often. It's not just cold spells which fail to materialise as well. I'm pretty sure I've seen cold spells pop up at short notice (even if really brief) when the week before we assumed blowtorch southwesterlies were all that we're on offer for the foreseeable. Probably best to never put too much stock in what the weather may be beyond 5 days to a week at most.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I'm starting to think that the models aren't that fit for purpose really. Sure they're pretty helpful for the next hand full of days, but beyond a week they can come up with nearly anything. Beyond that they just seem to flip and flop all too often. It's not just cold spells which fail to materialise as well. I'm pretty sure I've seen cold spells pop up at short notice (even if really brief) when the week before we assumed blowtorch southwesterlies were all that we're on offer for the foreseeable. Probably best to never put too much stock in what the weather may be beyond 5 days to a week at most.

They all seem to underestimate jet/pv, Atlantic, overdo cold/blocked setups, especially ECM

[Day 10]

Too far North, too far South, too far East, too far West, too marginal, not enough elevation, too near the coast, stupid shortwave......... Yep the silly season is on it's way!

Edited November 14, 2017 by Day 10

[SteveB]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Well yes, regardless, we should be doing a lot better than that. Any normal winter has at least 1-2 snowfalls. It's incredible how bad our luck has been the last few years.

Yep, it ain't like it used to be that's for sure.

[northwestsnow]

EC jumps ship...wonderful.

[Methuselah]

Ho, ho, ho. ..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC jumps ship...wonderful.

GFS seems to have modeled this the best, just hope not too wet with the SW'lys, prefer SW'lys to PM air anyway, tends to be dryer here

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

In an unusual twist, its ending before it begins this year.

All future ones also, apparently. 

[stainesbloke]

Apparently, winter is officially over on November 14th, with many trees here in the SE still in partial leaf. Is it that time of year to grab a cold one (beer, that is, not much else that's cold on offer, it seems) and watch the varied forms of emotional breakdown that happen every winter on here?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Well at least we still don't know what the weather will be for each day from the 1st of December to the 28th of February yet. 

[jvenge]

Did anyone check if the building blocks and cherries are safe and well?

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

40 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

All future ones also, apparently. 

Modernwinter is a reality, I'm afraid.

[Yarmy]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Modernwinter is a reality, I'm afraid.

Are you channeling Ian Brown? 

Nobody disputes that the world is getting warmer and the UK along with it (ok some do, but they can be safely ignored), but to pretend that there's no chance of Britain getting notable cold spells ever again is preposterous. The last 3 years have been largely uneventful, but the 5 prior to that were not. That's hardly unusual for Britain: it's the way it's always been.  

[Bristawl Si]

On 11/11/2017 at 23:35, Bristle boy said:

Island. Atlantic. Gulf Stream. Weather from a Westerly direction 85% of time. Default weather pattern for our tiny islands. Reality.

And there endeth my annual weather-related post (posted around this time of year most years).

I refer the honourable NW members to the post i made 'earlier'  (and last year...and the year before...and so on)

[Mokidugway]

I still feel winter 17/18 will deliver...

 

 

 

 

 

Drizzle.........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Are you channeling Ian Brown? 

Nobody disputes that the world is getting warmer and the UK along with it (ok some do, but they can be safely ignored), but to pretend that there's no chance of Britain getting notable cold spells ever again is preposterous. The last 3 years have been largely uneventful, but the 5 prior to that were not. That's hardly unusual for Britain: it's the way it's always been.  

IMO, he was right initially, but was criticised as his predictions were a few years away from being proven correct.

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I refer the honourable NW members to the post i made 'earlier'  (and last year...and the year before...and so on)

Indeed, and that's before AGW is taken into account.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Are you channeling Ian Brown? 

Nobody disputes that the world is getting warmer and the UK along with it (ok some do, but they can be safely ignored), but to pretend that there's no chance of Britain getting notable cold spells ever again is preposterous. The last 3 years have been largely uneventful, but the 5 prior to that were not. That's hardly unusual for Britain: it's the way it's always been.  

And actually if the warming Arctic does indeed cause regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients then persistent jet-stream patterns will iincrease and possibly frequency of extreme weather events  Depends where they fall of course.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

And actually if the warming Arctic does indeed cause regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients then persistent jet-stream patterns will iincrease and possibly frequency of extreme weather events  Depends where they fall of course.

I hope you're not forgetting the effects of the moon, Malcolm?

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I hope you're not forgetting the effects of the moon, Malcolm?

And hot air on here

[V for Very Cold]

Considering “winter is over”.......it’s bloody busy on all the threads