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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Further to the above, I suspect I won't see any snow this winter.

I'm sure you will see snow..drops pretty soon:whistling::crazy:

flowersnowdrop.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure you will see snow..drops pretty soon:whistling::crazy:

flowersnowdrop.JPG

BTW, I consider your posts worth following as they give me an idea of the absolute best-case scenario from a cold enthusiast's POV: in other words, what I wouldn't want to see as a reformed cold fan who has now become accepting of the case for mild winters.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Very interesting output posted in the "other forum" demonstrates data to support the modernwinter hypothesis:

DK8SfOIUQAExsVB.jpg:large

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It's getting increasingly more difficult to get snow to low levels in the UK. The further South & West you go, it's even harder. We can go many Winters without seeing settling snow. Conditions have to be near cold nirvana in order to get proper snow here.

I'm of the mind now that it's a 1-20yr event for my location.

It's just where we are in current climatology terms.

The only way that 1-20yr would decrease would be the following

1. Greater ice coverage in the Artic

2. Climate cooling from Volcanic eruptions, solar cycles etc

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

seems to be a lot of doom and gloom despite meteorological winter still being over 2 weeks away. Sure we'll have some disappointments but its still going to be an interesting winter. Maybe we should have a thread called coldies v. mildies can put their case for their own beliefs and ideas for this winter - now that really would be a battleground scenario! 

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Another year and nothing seems to have changed........  The 2008-2013 period is well and truly behind us.

If you are still saying that 2/3 winters from now you might have a point. Let's see what the next solar minimum brings and if there is any validity in the theory about it. Eleven years is a long cycle for people who are hungry for a regular snow fix every winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
14 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

seems to be a lot of doom and gloom despite meteorological winter still being over 2 weeks away. Sure we'll have some disappointments but its still going to be an interesting winter. Maybe we should have a thread called coldies v. mildies can put their case for their own beliefs and ideas for this winter - now that really would be a battleground scenario! 

There's a fine line between realism and pessimism, but I think on this year......... realism has the upper hand.

There will be cold spells & indeed cold Winters, but the form horse is a continuation of the last few years.  

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Its like things are just a continuation of last yr. First defeat of the season for coldies looks likely now. Another letdown etc etc etc,same story of recent yrs.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

the noaa charts suggest cold is likely next week with a slack mean upper northwesterly and height anomalies to our northwest. the ops dont really agree with this, itll be interesting to see if the ops fall into line with the noaa anoms. im no cold fan but imho its looking likely that we will get a cold spell, 4-5 days at least. no big freeze but just cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
49 minutes ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

Some of the current output's starting to somewhat resemble mid-late winter 2013-2014.

b.thumb.png.5e8868978781112fc2a8f40a3594aca7.pnga.thumb.png.d94006cbc2926cb41b6c0af2665e9625.png

Hopefully the the output's wrong or the pattern won't sustain.

The 6z GEFS are dreadful, im afraid its another one of these-

Image result for disappointed gif

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

If you are still saying that 2/3 winters from now you might have a point. Let's see what the next solar minimum brings and if there is any validity in the theory about it. Eleven years is a long cycle for people who are hungry for a regular snow fix every winter!

Agreed. Moreover, it's an odd thing to say when there actually *is* high lat blocking and -NAO/-AO modelled in the short to medium term. It looks unlikely that the UK will become overly cold, but that's never guaranteed anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

The GFS has been all over the shot this last couple of days. Going by previous years - I favour a mild takeover rather than a cold takeover. 

Then again, if the last few days GFS runs are anything to go by who know's what will be on the horizon !! Not looking good though with high pressure vacating the North Atlantic. 

Prepare for the worst pps - mild, windy and wet. Then if we do get cold it will be a pleasant surprise!! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Not a bad outlook from the met,they are the experts after all.

Getting more mobile,all we need now is the jet to go a but further south and you never know what one of those LPs could drag in behind it. Never really that good for us down here but can throw up a few surprises.

Still going for cold too. I for one am pleased as long as that bloody HP to our SW is kept at bay.As long as it is then anything can happen,at quite short notice too!

Relying on Hp as a conduit for proper cold in these islands is far too messy and complicated. Never goes to plan. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

It's getting increasingly more difficult to get snow to low levels in the UK. The further South & West you go, it's even harder. We can go many Winters without seeing settling snow. Conditions have to be near cold nirvana in order to get proper snow here.

I'm of the mind now that it's a 1-20yr event for my location.

It's just where we are in current climatology terms.

The only way that 1-20yr would decrease would be the following

1. Greater ice coverage in the Artic

2. Climate cooling from Volcanic eruptions, solar cycles etc

When did you last get any settling snow SteveB? I'm wondering if it's your location next to the weather killer that is the Severn that has deprived you of snow in the more recent marginal events. Albeit completely naff, have at least managed a few sugar coatings in recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
31 minutes ago, MP-R said:

When did you last get any settling snow SteveB? I'm wondering if it's your location next to the weather killer that is the Severn that has deprived you of snow in the more recent marginal events. Albeit completely naff, have at least managed a few sugar coatings in recent years.

Being near the coast doesn't help, especially when your only talking about marginal events that give a light dusting and disappears in less than a day.

I really don't count anything like that as settling snow anyway. A dusting is no different to a hail storm that leaves a covering. Both are gone with in a matter of minutes/hours. While nice to look at, surely we should be doing better than that!

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
11 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Being near the coast doesn't help, especially when your only talking about marginal events that give a light dusting and disappears in less than a day.

I really don't count anything like that as settling snow anyway. A dusting is no different to a hail storm that leaves a covering. Both are gone with in a matter of minutes/hours. While nice to look at, surely we should be doing better than that!

Well yes, regardless, we should be doing a lot better than that. Any normal winter has at least 1-2 snowfalls. It's incredible how bad our luck has been the last few years.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 hours ago, sundog said:

Its like things are just a continuation of last yr. First defeat of the season for coldies looks likely now. Another letdown etc etc etc,same story of recent yrs.

This battle may be lost, but we keep fighting.  We will never surrender to the mildies!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This battle may be lost, but we keep fighting.  We will never surrender to the mildies!

yes lol. If it was a football match for example we look like going a goal down but who knows we could yet take the lead instead or get an equalizer at some stage. Weve been badly thumped these last few yrs.

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Posted
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl

Every year the models lead us up the garden path. It's part of the chase. Even the met can't forcast past seven days with any accuracy. But I believe we will get snow this winter it's well overdue.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
3 hours ago, sundog said:

Its like things are just a continuation of last yr. First defeat of the season for coldies looks likely now. Another letdown etc etc etc,same story of recent yrs.

So how many months before winter officially ends?

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