Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's mid November folks and to be honest sustained wintry is unlikely to occur until mid December (2010 was the exception).  It's all about getting the building blocks in place.  There will be ups and downs but keep the faith coldies!

That term, building blocks :-)

The only building blocks getting into place are for an increased atlantic westerly influence towards the end of the month and early December. Until then, at least, the UK still has a very good chance of experiencing some unseasonably below average temperatures and possible snow as a result. Not guaranteed, not nailed on, but there is model output to support that.

Towards the end of the month those atlantic westerly building blocks are the most likely....that's not really model output though.

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

To be fair with all the building blocks I heard over the past few years we could have built an estate now 

Or an igloo 

[V for Very Cold]

well it's certainly been interesting model watching  - god knows whats going to happen when the real winter arrives!!!

[KDME]

4 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:

well it's certainly been interesting model watching  - god knows whats going to happen when the real winter arrives!!!

Based on recent years - f all

Looks all promising as we descend into winter and then ...

 

[Snowy L]

6 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Usual suspects getting upset about a single GFS ops run, same every year.

Problem is those usual suspects have been correct to moan since 2013/14.

[knocker]

Not another bloody downgrade

[V for Very Cold]

Can’t help feeling a little flat after the last few runs given the excitement of last week  

[JeffC]

OK here's the bit I can't get over, the models are just reacting to stimuli - like electronic amoebae, but the way some folk are reacting it's as if it's the model's fault we get a load of mild rubbish. The models don't make the weather, they reflect the possibilities that may transpire to some degree. They don't write a script for the weather to stick to or not, so if one model says one thing and another says something else, it's not their fault, they're just giving possible outcomes based on previous and current data and programming against what has gone before!

[KDME]

11 minutes ago, JeffC said:

OK here's the bit I can't get over, the models are just reacting to stimuli - like electronic amoebae, but the way some folk are reacting it's as if it's the model's fault we get a load of mild rubbish. The models don't make the weather, they reflect the possibilities that may transpire to some degree. They don't write a script for the weather to stick to or not, so if one model says one thing and another says something else, it's not their fault, they're just giving possible outcomes based on previous and current data and programming against what has gone before!

It has nothing to do with the weather or the models ... it is the "excitable" nature of some people who watch the models!

A slight whiff of something good - meltdown ensues.  A possible downgrade - meltdown ensues!

I cannot read the models but I do realise that 7/10 days out are just a calculation of what may happen.  People taking it as gospel.  How can every run be gospel?  

Edited November 13, 2017 by Weather_Novice

[Summer Sun]

17 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Can’t help feeling a little flat after the last few runs given the excitement of last week  

A very good reason why hopes should be kept low anything beyond t144 should always be taken with caution @CreweCold said numerous times he wasn't building his hopes up and he may well be right not to have

Edited November 13, 2017 by Summer Sun

[V for Very Cold]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

A very good reason why hopes should be kept low anything beyond t144 should always be taken with caution @CreweCold said numerous times he wasn't building his hopes up and he may well be right not to have

I know.... but it’s part of the fun of watching the mod thread! You sort of get carried along lol

[summer blizzard]

It's truly amazing how depressed some people appear to be in the model thread given that at the half way point of November we are dry and cool/cold for the next week at least and even out to day we have stonking Greenland Heights. 

Although there's always a danger of La Nina winters flattering to deceive (i.e. the jet shows up in winter proper) i tend to think that playing the long game is the best bet for us. The longer we keep heights to the north, the more likely it is that we eventually get a period of amplifications that delivers properly for us. 

[Dancerwithwings]

3 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:

Can’t help feeling a little flat after the last few runs given the excitement of last week  

The Net Weather Rollercoaster ride is never flat my friendthat's all the fun of the model watching.....fairground 

[V for Very Cold]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The Net Weather Rollercoaster ride is never flat my friendthat's all the fun of the model watching.....fairground 

very true - and we never want to get off either lol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS 0Z run is much better than the shocking 18Z run from yesterday so maybe heading in the right direction ?

[James1979]

11 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The Net Weather Rollercoaster ride is never flat my friendthat's all the fun of the model watching.....fairground 

Rollercoasters are supposed to be fun-this one does remain flat and boring for me with the loop the loops and twists always 10 days away in the distance, ad infinitum (very occasionally punctuated!).  As I said in another thread, it’s a form of sadism that people keep getting carried away at the slight sniff of cold once again only to be let down again, it’s year in year out and until it’s within 5 days pointless imo.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Tend to agree with Shropshire's latest post on TWO! ECM will backtrack towards UKMO/GFS, wet and mild I feel for rest of Nov, see it most years, ECM tends to overdo blocking

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Tend to agree with Shropshire's latest post on TWO! ECM will backtrack towards UKMO/GFS, wet and mild I feel for rest of Nov, see it most years, ECM tends to overdo blocking

I thought you were shropshire

[V for Very Cold]

grrrrr seems to have been a bit of a false dawn ... a lot of backtracking and pointing to wet and mild.... roll on the upgrades lol

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

grrrrr seems to have been a bit of a false dawn ... a lot of backtracking and pointing to wet and mild.... roll on the upgrades lol

I say this in the kindest of ways, but there is no back tracking if people were ever looking at anything over than det runs and isolated runs at that.

Still, there still remains a period of opportunity over the next two weeks for the UK. Models have been known to come up with surprises ;-)

[frosty ground]

30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Tend to agree with Shropshire's latest post on TWO! ECM will backtrack towards UKMO/GFS, wet and mild I feel for rest of Nov, see it most years, ECM tends to overdo blocking

What year is this? That post could have been made in any year and in any winter month since the start of these weather forums........ you would think he would be borad of the same old nonsense time after all time.

I suppose that's the modern internet forum user for you. 

[snowblizzard]

I've seen these encouraging situations so many times over the years, invariably ends in disappointment because basically the UK has a temperate climate.

There's absolutely no point looking at forecast models any further than 5 days ahead!

Even the best meteorological brains combined with super computers, satellites and all sorts of other information gathering quite often get it completely wrong!

Please tell me, why do we do this?

Edited November 14, 2017 by snowblizzard

[Frosty.]

Any early daffodils watching the 6z will be very happy this morning!..looking forward to the latest update in a few hours?

Edited November 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

19 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A very good reason why hopes should be kept low anything beyond t144 should always be taken with caution @CreweCold said numerous times he wasn't building his hopes up and he may well be right not to have

I'm going to be controversial here, but I think that, when it comes to the MOD thread in winter, most members aren't worth reading.  You and CC are two of the small number I trust to be balanced.  As for this winter, I suspect it'll be another confirmation of the accuracy of the m o d e r n w i n t e r hypothesis, given that we're going to get wet and windy next week with a weak vortex, and that the vortex is only likely to strengthen in a La Nina set-up.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Further to the above, I suspect I won't see any snow this winter.

Edited November 14, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman