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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Snow date gradually getting later too, in 90's, 19th Nov '96 was very snowy, but 21 years on in TMW, sure wouldn't produce much snow if any, snow line is rising, and getting later

sleet/rain nowadays below 200m?

archives-1996-11-19-12-0.png

Possibly.

Partly why im planning on moving up to around 330m asl next year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Possibly.

Partly why im planning on moving up to around 330m asl next year. 

you lucky thing!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

0ne of the main examples of TMW, convinced if this had been mid 90's and earlier, snow all the way, but no, here at 104m asl mostly rain, if I remember too, reports of only sleet/wet snow on Peak District

archives-2017-2-11-0-1.pngarchives-2017-2-11-0-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Something i've just found on my daily 'funny' gifs and vids routine..

It reminds me of looking for that holy grail for cold, in the models. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

The longer things went unresolved the greater chance that nothing much would come of it.  The models leading us another merry dance. This whole eqisode has become rather tiresome at this stage. All huff and puff, like trying to get blood from a stone.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

I don’t think this is over yet maybe models are all over the place Re blocking let’s see how today goes meto are still going cold .?

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Better here, considering how sensitive they are in the output thread.

Over the weekend and continuing today, the ECM and GEFS have shortened the duration and depth of the negative AMO. This means that likely by the end of the month there will be an increase in a westerly regime. Still a long way out, but thats what one would expect from the current La Nina.

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

Perhaps it’s a rogue run with the models? I just hope our foe the Azores High doesn’t muck it up for us otherwise we need to ask for it to be flattened man made style.

Then again, it’s early in the game. November 2009 was mild and we all know the winter that followed that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Usual suspects getting upset about a single GFS ops run, same every year.

Haha - yes and no- EC mean is also a pretty hefty backtrack MS- im kinda keeping the faith - maybe year after year of let downs is playing a part.

Being a coldie in the UK is like supporting a team at the bottom of the league- you dont win many but when you do its a moment like this-

Image result for happy gif

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha - yes and no- EC mean is also a pretty hefty backtrack MS- im kinda keeping the faith - maybe year after year of let downs is playing a part.

Think it's probably our weather changing, still autumn though, even before TMW, snow wasn't that common in Nov

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It has been said before many times which doesn't make it any less true but people could alleviate their trauma by not reading too much into every det run , On another note I notice that is becoming an increasingly accepted practice to introduce MOD discussion from other sites. Perhaps a video link to Exeter next?

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Usual suspects getting upset about a single GFS ops run, same every year.

Technically it is 2 runs as I believe the 18z had milder conditions longer term?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

It has been said before many times which doesn't make it any less true but people could alleviate their trauma by not reading too much into every det run , On another note I notice that is becoming an increasingly accepted practice to introduce MOD discussion from other sites. Perhaps a video link to Exeter next?

While i agree, its not really just one det run knocker, the EC mean has also shifted quite noticeably- knew i shouldnt have posted the image of sidney gathering nuts :D

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Think it's probably our weather changing, still autumn though, even before TMW, snow wasn't that common in Nov

Yes- however as a coldie you have to hang your hat on every possible cold outcome whether its Nov or Feb. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes- however as a coldie you have to hang your hat on every possible cold outcome whether its Nov or Feb. :)

In that case, the CFSv2 is planning a Spring ice age for the northern hemisphere.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While i agree, its not really just one det run knocker, the EC mean has also shifted quite noticeably- knew i shouldnt have posted the image of sidney gathering nuts :D

But from where I'm sitting there still remains a lot of uncertainty from the beginning of next week onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

But from where I'm sitting there still remains a lot of uncertainty from the beginning of next week onwards.

I'm sure you are correct.Personally i can see it going one way and one way only, and it wouldn't be the way id like.

As an aside i do wish John Hammond would stop mentioning cold spells, he really is a hex :D 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

EPS weekly should be interesting later tonight, since it is the first one that will be reflecting the recent move away from a negative NAO

Edited by jvenge
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm sure you are correct.Personally i can see it going one way and one way only, and it wouldn't be the way id like.

As an aside i do wish John Hammond would stop mentioning cold spells, he really is a hex :D 

Sidney feels for you

ixE2QqG.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

It's mid November folks and to be honest sustained wintry is unlikely to occur until mid December (2010 was the exception).  It's all about getting the building blocks in place.  There will be ups and downs but keep the faith coldies!

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Well that was all rather tedious wasn't it. There was too many things that could go wrong and sure enough they did. And I am not in the slightest bit surprised.

Serious amounts of time and energy put in by the folk on the mod thread for it to come to nought.

Despite people saying otherwise, forecasting 5-7 days out is still pretty crap. You only have too look at the number of times the met use the word uncertainty and possibly.

Very poor all round to be honest.

As I have said before,until that HP to our sw does one, we can forget about meaningful cold.

Haven't heard faux cold being mentioned yet.

Baby steps.......,..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's mid November folks and to be honest sustained wintry is unlikely to occur until mid December (2010 was the exception).  It's all about getting the building blocks in place.  There will be ups and downs but keep the faith coldies!

2

To be fair with all the building blocks I heard over the past few years we could have built an estate now 

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