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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
On 11/9/2017 at 15:05, CreweCold said:

Lord almighty! You had the orange crayons out Malcolm? :shok:

The accompanying pressure anomaly

cfs-4-12-2017.png?18

I mentioned in the winter forecast thread a couple days ago that one such year has been bugging me and that's 1988.  November that year had a cold final third with snow for some including parts of the south.  However, we know what the following winter of 1988/89 was like.  That CFS December pressure chart illustrates something similar happening.  Just one model of course but can't be discounted.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex

I’m going to the Zoo tomorrow and I’m glad to know all the Cammels will be upright as all the straws are being clutched at here.

people seem to forget the early promise we had last winter. Funnily enough, it made sweet FA of a difference to how January and February played out.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
On 09/11/2017 at 18:52, CreweCold said:

I prefer not to ramp anything lol. I certainly don't like mild in winter but have learned hyping up cold charts will lead to disappointment 90% of the time. I prefer to try and be a bit more pragmatic with my thoughts!

if more people had your attitude the mod thread would be a much better place in winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

Once again, some getting far too excited about some of the current model output and predictions, when will they learn!

If the predicted HLB pattern does actually materialise, the early part of our winter could be very different compared to the last few years but I'm not convinced it will.

Most likely, it will quickly return to default winter set-up for UK

Anyway, it's all far too early as we are still in Autumn. 

How many notable cold & wintry spells have occurred during November?

Hopefully, we'll see some decent blocking, East based -NAO and bitter cold over Western Europe during January or February.

I can't resist posting my dream chart!

 

January 1987.gif

Edited by snowblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

cold Sun / Mon ......then milder midweek ....then cold again next weekend as demonstrated by this Tableaux GEFS de Températures 850hPa (°C) from Meteociel

 

tableplt0_mini.png

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

make the most of this upcoming cold snap as summer sun has posted in the winter 2017 thread the met office charts for D/J/F and they dont make pretty reading if you like cold......average to above temperatures:sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Saves on the heating bills I suppose but lets see how things turn out,

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

make the most of this upcoming cold snap as summer sun has posted in the winter 2017 thread the met office charts for D/J/F and they dont make pretty reading if you like cold......average to above temperatures:sorry:

Just like the barbecue summers they forecast.....load of drizzle...sorry dribble:D

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Not concerned at all at the moment about what the met office are predicting for dec/jan/Feb, they predicted a front loaded winter last year and look how that turned out! I'll just sit back and watch it all unfold over the next few months. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Is just me or does anyone else get the feeling this up and coming cold spell could be are only one this Winter. There seems a growing trend from all quarters that thing look less than favorable as we go into Winter proper.

What ever the case I'll be grateful to see anything Winter like as it's been  a last few Winters.

Personally I don't trust any long range forecasts, so going to keep an open mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Is just me or does anyone else get the feeling this up and coming cold spell could be are only one this Winter. There seems a growing trend from all quarters that thing look less than favorable as we go into Winter proper.

 

Yes, I have that feeling, in terms of a proper cold spell anyway.  The November update from GLOSEA 5 shows no improvement over last month for the winter period if you like it cold.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Island. Atlantic. Gulf Stream. Weather from a Westerly direction 85% of time. Default weather pattern for our tiny islands. Reality.

And there endeth my annual weather-related post (posted around this time of year most years).

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
8 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Island. Atlantic. Gulf Stream. Weather from a Westerly direction 85% of time. Default weather pattern for our tiny islands. Reality.

And there endeth my annual weather-related post (posted around this time of year most years).

True, but it's an island that is perilously close to a massive continent which, at times, is pretty much frozen solid.

 If, and it's a big if, we manage to see Northern blocking in the correct position the UK can experience extreme cold and quite often heavy snow!

The problem is, it only happens once or twice every 10/15 years.

December 2010 being our last proper shot, so the law of averages would indicate that it should happen again within the next few years or so?

But, global warming & ice melt could be having an adverse effect on those timescales.

Fascinating stuff though! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Find Ian Pennell accurate! looks like no snow here before mid Jan, to be expected I suppose

Sorry i know its the ramp moan thread but no snow before mid jan??? Wash your mouth out im sure that should have read mid March :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quote from a year ago by Prof Adam Scaife, head of the decadal forecasting group at the Met Office when considering the effects of La Nina on British power supply with particular reference to wind turbines .

Quote

“La Niña tends to drive blocking and, therefore, low wind speeds in early winter, but late winter is, on average, windier than normal during La Niña.”

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

BOOM :)

IMG_0618.PNG

IMG_0619.PNG

Please can I request that you show the full chart and not screenshots?! I can hardly see anything when i'm looking at these in the mod thread via a mobile device. It's quite easy - long press the image and save it to your phone.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Please can I request that you show the full chart and not screenshots?! I can hardly see anything when i'm looking at these in the mod thread via a mobile device. It's quite easy - long press the image and save it to your phone.

Ok cheers for that , I didn't realise how to do it . 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry i know its the ramp moan thread but no snow before mid jan??? Wash your mouth out im sure that should have read mid March :rofl:

Would be with my 'forecast', you know me and winter mild

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Would be with my 'forecast', you know me and winter mild

Yeah...its the form horse..esp in a warming world..thats why charts like tonights EC should be enjoyed ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah...its the form horse..esp in a warming world..thats why charts like tonights EC should be enjoyed ;)

Snow date gradually getting later too, in 90's, 19th Nov '96 was very snowy, but 21 years on in TMW, sure wouldn't produce much snow if any, snow line is rising, and getting later

sleet/rain nowadays below 200m?

archives-1996-11-19-12-0.png

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