Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

Sidney is musing about his Xmas nuts, to store or not to store, having seen the latest CFSv2 update

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney is musing about his Xmas nuts, to store or not to store, having seen the latest CFSv2 update

Lord almighty! You had the orange crayons out Malcolm? 

The accompanying pressure anomaly

Edited November 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney is musing about his Xmas nuts, to store or not to store, having seen the latest CFSv2 update

[Cheshire Freeze]

In all seriousness, for whatever reason, the CFS is not initiating the progged -AO very well at all

Here is the day 10 chart from the latest daily run

I'm not sure what is driving the CFS and Glosea signal TBH

Compare the above with the ECM and GFS operational day 10 charts

Edited November 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[Paul]

36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I wonder if the further outlooks are archived somewhere??

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Paul said:

 

Cheers Paul

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I must stop liking your posts

I liked this post! 

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

I agree not a fan of the ignore function,I do like the points system,I think some posters who genuinely put a lot of effort and time into their posts deserve a thanks or a point.

C.S. 

in theory, yes that what its there for. but those getting 'likes' are those predicting, however accurate or not, what the majority want to hear, and has nothing to do with the thought, unbiased appraisal, and knowledge some members post. post a ramp to satisfy the masses, get the star of popularity. easy.

so imho the points system, the likes, have nothing to do with the integrity of a post for most of the time, but has more to do with telling the masses what they want to hear. this makes it pointless.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Ah, but it isn't censorship, everyone else can still read, just you can choose not to. The like thing though I completely agree with.

self censorship then... filtering out opinions that dont suit what you would like to hear , whats the point of a discussion forum if your only going to take notice of opinions you agree with?..

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

self censorship then... filtering out opinions that dont suit what you would like to hear , whats the point of a discussion forum if your only going to take notice of opinions you agree with?..

Personally I have loads on ignore, and love fishing for likes as I can exchange them for air miles 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

in theory, yes that what its there for. but those getting 'likes' are those predicting, however accurate or not, what the majority want to hear, and has nothing to do with the thought, unbiased appraisal, and knowledge some members post. post a ramp to satisfy the masses, get the star of popularity. easy.

so imho the points system, the likes, have nothing to do with the integrity of a post for most of the time, but has more to do with telling the masses what they want to hear. this makes it pointless.

Rep ratings should be scrapped, they are pointless

[Optimus Prime]

The like system is a good idea but in practise they never work the way they are intended. Some of the most liked posts in that model discussion thread baffle me. If it ain't a cold ramp, you ain't getting much appraisal no matter how solid the science is that you are using. If you call out some of the absurd cold ramping that is going on in there right now, you're off topic and your post will be disputed. 

I tend to imagine the chase for likes/ego/popularity trip in there a bit like that typical guy coming out of a shower at the gym. He has a big cock, he knows it and he wants everyone else to see it. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

The like system is a good idea but in practise they never work the way they are intended. Some of the most liked posts in that model discussion thread baffle me. If it ain't a cold ramp, you ain't getting much appraisal no matter how solid the science is that you are using. If you call out some of the absurd cold ramping that is going on in there right now, you're off topic and your post will be disputed. 

I tend to imagine the chase for likes/ego/popularity trip in there a bit like that typical guy coming out of a shower at the gym. He has a big cock, he knows it and he wants everyone else to see it. 

At least someone understands my struggles

Very often gets labelled as moaning. It's less moaning, more realism!

Edited November 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

At least someone understands my struggles

Lol; Not sure h0w to take that. I always saw you as a bit of a cold ramper though? Not necessarily chasing the likes, or in disregard to the science; just prodding and poking the less meteorologically educated in there and hyping the atmosphere up.

Your join date (Jan 2010) does perhaps signal a like to cold and snow? Unless you initially joined with the agenda to mild ramp?

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Lol; Not sure h0w to take that. I always saw you as a bit of a cold ramper though? Not necessarily chasing the likes, or in disregard to the science; just prodding and poking the less meteorologically educated in there and hyping the atmosphere up.

Your join date (Jan 2010) does perhaps signal a like to cold and snow? Unless you initially joined with the agenda to mild ramp?

 

I prefer not to ramp anything lol. I certainly don't like mild in winter but have learned hyping up cold charts will lead to disappointment 90% of the time. I prefer to try and be a bit more pragmatic with my thoughts!

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I prefer not to ramp anything lol. I certainly don't like mild in winter but have learned hyping up cold charts will lead to disappointment 90% of the time. I prefer to try and be a bit more pragmatic with my thoughts!

The same with plumes and heatwaves,one MUST be cautious  

[Optimus Prime]

17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I prefer not to ramp anything lol. I certainly don't like mild in winter but have learned hyping up cold charts will lead to disappointment 90% of the time. I prefer to try and be a bit more pragmatic with my thoughts!

Well I see 2010 is the new baseline we work from for comparisons. Before that, we would refer to 1991 & 1987. So the fact we have a new (and arguably better) cold bar shows we have come a long way since 1997. The years 2010 & 2013 for me instils a sense of reassurance that things may not have completely reverted back to the years after '97 and before '08. That was not a good winter period.

I remember the model output prior to the Nov/Dec 2010 event. They were generally spot on 10 days before it kicked off. Have to concede, the trend being shown across the board should be raising a few eyebrows about the possibilities. 

Edited November 9, 2017 by Optimus Prime

[Seasonality]

14 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

self censorship then... filtering out opinions that dont suit what you would like to hear , whats the point of a discussion forum if your only going to take notice of opinions you agree with?..

I think you're taking me too seriously. Not arguing with you just having a bit of fun, and I've only ever had to use ignore on the very few occasions when people have been genuinely disruptive or add nothing. I am no rabid 'mildie' or 'coldie' and I love reading posts from people with different preferences and different interpretations.

[knocker]

Last night's EC46 means update indicated generally below average temps for December up to and including Xmas week in an upper flow from the westerly quadrant. But as the model is considered less use than a chocolate fireguard by the very knowledgeable aficionados in the other thread Sid and I are keeping the faith

[markyo]

Loving the look for the latter half of the weekend and start of next week,blue sky,light winds 5c during daylight,perfect Autumn weather!!

[Methuselah]

Well, well: I think that now the MetO is coming on board, I can have the Toycatchers stand down!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Loving the look for the latter half of the weekend and start of next week,blue sky,light winds 5c during daylight,perfect Autumn weather!!

For you yes, but Sunday here looks very wet, then drying up for evening for a bleedin' frosty night, then more rain

Frost and rain to be the dominant things this winter

[knocker]

Keep still my beating heart

[sundog]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

Keep still my beating heart

Is that murr sausage? Be great if we had a firming up of it.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, sundog said:

Is that murr sausage? Be great if we had a firming up of it.

Good god no I would't touch a Murr sausage with a barge pole, or any other pole for that matter. No I just had a vision of a wise wind coming from the east.