Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can you elaborate knocker???tia

Sorry not clear what I'm supposed to elaborate on swfc. I just assumed Mr Schreck was having a little bit of tongue-in-cheek fun and he's probably a keen MOD thread contributor going under an alias.

Edited November 7, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

Quite a few in the other thread refer to the METO updates, particularly recently, with the greater possibility of upcoming cold at the beginning of December reinforced again today.

Quote

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 6 Dec 2017:

There is an increasing signal that blocked patterns will become more dominant throughout this period. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions under the influence of high pressure. There will still be spells of rain and showers as frontal systems move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below normal but with an increased chance of below normal temperatures later in the period, with an increased likelihood of overnight frosts.

May I be so bold as to enquire what surface analysis people are envisioning to cover this given the excitement this seems to have caused I've posted this in here as I wouldn't like to clutter the other thread with irrelevancies.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Quite a few in the other thread refer to the METO updates, particularly recently, with the greater possibility of upcoming cold at the beginning of December reinforced again today.

May I be so bold as to enquire what surface analysis people are envisioning to cover this given the excitement this seems to have caused I've posted this in here as I wouldn't like to clutter the other thread with irrelevancies.

You would say anti-cyclonic but don't forget they weren't going much further than this type of forecast in 2010 until about 12-15 days out, they might think HLB is an option on the table but a) - they don't want to be too precise re - exact set up as to mention sleet and snow showres for NE / N facing coasts or b) -  they don't think the uppers will be penetrative enough to produce any convection.

[MP-R]

Personally I'm not looking for prolonged cold until at least the solstice. In many winters (although not all) the recurring pattern for the rest of the winter is set. A taster early on then something more prolonged through the course of late Dec and Jan would be ideal... Gives more time for the continent to cool further and taking advantage of lower sun.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Seems as though the chances for cold are reliant upon events over the next few weeks, as someone posted in the MOD thread earlier than January and February are likely to be mild and zonal.  From the point of view of how the country, especially the NHS, would fall apart if we had bad weather this winter, I'm concerned by the possibility of early-season cold.  Three months of mild, perhaps zonal mixed with Euro/Bartlett high conditions would be perfect.

[booferking]

13 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Seems as though the chances for cold are reliant upon events over the next few weeks, as someone posted in the MOD thread earlier than January and February are likely to be mild and zonal.  From the point of view of how the country, especially the NHS, would fall apart if we had bad weather this winter, I'm concerned by the possibility of early-season cold.  Three months of mild, perhaps zonal mixed with Euro/Bartlett high conditions would be perfect.

CFS which usually predicts blow torch shows a rather cold jan-feb. Anything can happen in a world of unknowns.

[Matthew.]

Looking at previous analogues Decembers going to be a cold one folks. As the saying goes ‘June warmth, December snow.’ Whether it’s snowy is a different kettle of fish completely. As for January and February I’m really undecided.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Matthew.

[knocker]

Don't forget the trend is your friend

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Don't forget the trend is your friend

Hehehe...

[Hairy Celt]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Meanwhile, getting excited about another dump

sorry, couldn't stop myself. I really should grow up.

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Surprised no ones posted these

CERN just rang... They thought Quarks were tiny, until they viewed your post. 

[Dancerwithwings]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

Don't forget the trend is your friend

Looking at that.......I fell out with him along time ago 

[NeilN]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

Don't forget the trend is your friend

That's lies! 

[jvenge]

31 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

That's lies! 

Of course it is, but how much is it lying? ;-)

By the way. Anyone else noticed that blocking has a new definition on the output thread? It seems to have become "high pressure somewhere where we want it", no matter what that then does and for how long.

[lassie23]

The sleet potential this year is through the roof.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Of course it is, but how much is it lying? ;-)

By the way. Anyone else noticed that blocking has a new definition on the output thread? It seems to have become "high pressure somewhere where we want it", no matter what that then does and for how long.

To me a blocking high is to the NE, N or NW though because that's what it does - blocks the atlantic, mid latt highs often don't block the Jet, it just rides over the top, if you say any high that stays in the same position is a blocking high then you could say a Bartlett is a block as it stops the Jet going into mainland Europe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Don't we get this every Nov though? good NH profile, northern blocking? surely it's because it's only Nov and PV not fully developed yet, wait until Dec, when PV will be fully developed and aggressive

[draztik]

 

42 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Don't we get this every Nov though? good NH profile, northern blocking? surely it's because it's only Nov and PV not fully developed yet, wait until Dec, when PV will be fully developed and aggressive

Could be argued that we do! Doesn’t stop the MOD thread from going into meltdown and fully expecting whiteouts, blizzards and paralysing snowfalls though. Snow is quickly replaced with disappointment and then the chase recommenses. Carrots and sticks aplenty. 

Edited November 8, 2017 by draztik

[Seasonal Trim]

For crying out loud. 90% of the posts in on this page alone have got some sort of dig or sarcastic comment directed to those posting in the MOD thread! Is this what this thread is for?

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

For crying out loud. 90% of the posts in on this page alone have got some sort of dig or sarcastic comment directed to those posting in the MOD thread! Is this what this thread is for?

No, and it's getting really boring. If people want to be smugly self-satisfied can they please do it somewhere else? This thread is supposed to be for light-hearted humour, not a raging b**chfest.

Edited November 8, 2017 by cheese

[lassie23]

After four years of people 'self' forecasting and predicting snow etc in the MOD thread and cherry picking models that will never happen, I think a bit of banter is deserved and banter is often sarcastic in a light hearted way. The Daily Express does it and look what happens to them on this site.

[Seasonal Trim]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

After four years of people 'self' forecasting and predicting snow etc in the MOD thread and cherry picking models that will never happen, I think a bit of banter is deserved and banter is often sarcastic in a light hearted way. The Daily Express does it and look what happens to them on this site.

I don't understand what you mean by "self forecasting". But if the models are showing snow, even if it is out at 240+ hours then it's fair game, as after all it is the model thread. Anyone in said thread should be aloud to post about what is showing in the models without having to be dug out in this thread. 

Edited November 8, 2017 by Nizzer

[Mokidugway]

Rarely bother with mod thread ,to many egos and blind followers,I use this thread much more fun 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

After four years of people 'self' forecasting and predicting snow etc in the MOD thread and cherry picking models that will never happen, I think a bit of banter is deserved and banter is often sarcastic in a light hearted way. The Daily Express does it and look what happens to them on this site.

It's a boad of lollocks!?

[Seasonal Trim]

Well ok, it seems like you guys are set to continue. Maybe we should have another thread where you can all have your digs and sarcy comments and you could leave it out of here a?