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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Talk of building blocks.. charts showing the preludes of 62/63 and 2010.. Possibly grounds for a ramp warning. 

Being serious though the idea is that snowcover promotes a surface high which builds into the upper atmosphere, this can then split the Jet over Siberia both allowing a more amplified downstream flow (increasing the potential for wave breaking from the Pacific) and also encouraging a degree of retrogression into the Arctic and western Russia. 

I'd not really trust day 14 charts though. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
16 hours ago, draztik said:

Excuse me, but havent you seen the latest musings in the MOD thread? A strong siberian high is due to take hold, and this is a key ingredient to a colder Europe. GFS day 16 charts should strongly be viewed favorably. Please disregard the Met Office's glosea, CFS ensembles and all other output favouring milder conditions... the Siberian High is being heralded as our saviour, so its cold all the way*

huh?...  not sure on whether this is serious or not.... my head hurts! lol

theres no anomaly support for significant ridging over scandinavia, not on the noaa 6-10,8-14 day charts anyway. the times the ops out trump the anoms in that timeframe are miniscule.

the outlook remains unsettled from the west or north of west.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

What a fantastic start to a Sunday,gin clear blue sky,3c,light fresh breeze,that lovely Autumnal light,You can't get better at this time of year,proper proper Autumn weather for a change! Love it.

Edited by markyo
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

Some interesting charts tonight but as a word of caution on the 18th of Nov last year we had a covering of snow and the long range models were predicting cold through December. We all know what happened - hardly another flake and no lying snow all winter. Still, we can but hope :smile:

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

Loved the first proper frost of the season.Must get a proper ice scrapper though,used my credit card this morning as usual....useless its a contact less one.....sorry that was crap!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yowser. Haven't seen a signal like that in November since 2010!

Always wise to do some digging :)

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Well well well things are looking a lot more positive for us coldies than at any point perhaps since March 2013. Feet firmly on the ground though. I'm not going to get excited just yet as we all know things can go Pete Tong!

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Only good thing about this weather at this time of year is the colour of the sky and sun against objects which become more colourful then in the summer.

I'd rather it mild with plenty of windy weather personally as it gets boring after a while and struggling to pay more money just for heating and possible gritting to reduce the chances of slipping over and breaking your neck isn't really what I wan't to be dealing with.

Don't want a repeat of the winters of 2009-2010, but the models are hinting at more cold icy weather and with the cold lovers getting all excited.:rofl: 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

It's still early and there are many ways we could be still screwed and this would not be the first winter to feature a cold November yet little in winter... but, i can't argue against the signal from the ensembles (pretty stunning). 

I'm on board, it does appear as if we will see the real deal (from a northern blocking perspective, not so much UK snow). 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Here we are again.. people still using the 'screenshot' function on their phones to post a tiny picture of a chart, with no dates or timestamps. 

Come on folks, it's just as easy, if not easier to save the image you're looking at on your phone rather than doing a screenshot.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex

Is there a way we can have Ronan Keatings ‘Tomorrow Never Comes’ playing in the Model thread?

End of world predictions a week and a half away, where have we seen this before? Problem is - they’ll still be a week and a half away in a week and a half’s time.

Edited by Spikey M
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

Is there a way we can have Ronan Keatings ‘Tomorrow Never Comes’ playing in the Model thread?

End of world predictions a week and a half away, where have we seen this before? Problem is - they’ll still be a week and a half away in a week and a half’s time.

............ id prefer the beatles - 'tomorrow never knows'

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

lovely morning here, mild, breezy but DRY....

ok, it wont last but by the time the rain gets here i would have done most of my work.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Here we are again.. people still using the 'screenshot' function on their phones to post a tiny picture of a chart, with no dates or timestamps. 

Come on folks, it's just as easy, if not easier to save the image you're looking at on your phone rather than doing a screenshot.

not me! 6310i rules! annoying too is every Nov, members bring ridiculous '62-'63 charts up, absolutely no way can anyone compare now, to back then

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, knocker said:

 

what does that mean?....

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

what does that mean?....

5 of the last 6 winters have had a mean +NAO over the DJFM period.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

what does that mean?....

The short answer to that is I don't know. One of the problems with short tweet soundbites. As far as I'm aware there have been a number of studies into the poleward shift of the  sub tropical jet this being one of them.

Quote

One pronounced feature in observed latitudinal dependence of lower-stratospheric temperature trends is the enhanced cooling near 30° latitude in both hemispheres. The observed phenomenon has not, to date, been explained in the literature. This study shows that the enhanced cooling is a direct response of the lower-stratospheric temperature to the poleward shift of subtropical jets. Furthermore, this enhanced lower-stratospheric cooling can be used to quantify the poleward shift of subtropical jets. Using the lower-stratospheric temperatures observed by satellite-borne microwave sounding units, it is shown that the subtropical jets have shifted poleward by 0.6° ± 0.1° and 1.0° ± 0.3° latitude in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, respectively, in last 30 years since 1979, indicating a widening of tropical belt by 1.6° ± 0.4° latitude.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00027.1

EDIT

And Yarmy's answer of course :) Perhaps Dr Butler is suggesting more influence further north from the tropical area.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
14 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh dearie me, Oh dearie, dearie me.

 

Can you elaborate knocker???tia

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19 hours ago, wimblettben said:

Only good thing about this weather at this time of year is the colour of the sky and sun against objects which become more colourful then in the summer.

I'd rather it mild with plenty of windy weather personally as it gets boring after a while and struggling to pay more money just for heating and possible gritting to reduce the chances of slipping over and breaking your neck isn't really what I wan't to be dealing with.

Don't want a repeat of the winters of 2009-2010, but the models are hinting at more cold icy weather and with the cold lovers getting all excited.:rofl: 

Deep cold of 2009 ,2010 is no good to man nor beast,screws  the construction sector ,hard for farmers the old ,poor and puts strain on the NHS ,only a well paid pencil neck could wish for sutch conditions .

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