Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just checking the MOD thread - the cold spell has all but disappeared.

[Mokidugway]

21 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Just checking the MOD thread - the cold spell has all but disappeared.

Cold spell.  I missed that one. 

[draztik]

29 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Just checking the MOD thread - the cold spell has all but disappeared.

Fear not. There is Surely potential

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, draztik said:

Fear not. There is Surely potential

and it will soon be,

we still have time yet

[Northwest NI]

3 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Just checking the MOD thread - the cold spell has all but disappeared.

I could have "forecast" that

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What's wrong with ECM, can't the model take the cold modelling anymore!

Edited October 24, 2017 by prolongedSnowLover

[mushymanrob]

43 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What's wrong with ECM, can't the model take the cold modelling anymore!

probably nothing

[knocker]

A broad summation of the T2m from the latest EPS 46 would be below average until around the 14th November, briefly around average, and then increasingly above average until the 8th of December.

[jvenge]

42 minutes ago, knocker said:

A broad summation of the T2m from the latest EPS 46 would be below average until around the 14th November, briefly around average, and then increasingly above average until the 8th of December.

Full of potential,  Knocker?

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Full of potential,  Knocker?

Oh yes indeedy.

[sparky1972]

so according to the weather outlook forecast, fireworks night is going to be wet and windy, which is a bugger but im glad i have not brought any fireworks yet

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I've never seen a white bonfire night before but have had a white Diwali once in Bradford (with a covering) back in the 90's.

Edited October 24, 2017 by prolongedSnowLover

[knocker]

The seasons seem to come around so quickly on NW. What with a weakening easterly QBO , WAA flooding into the Arctic via Fairbanks and Mars going into aretrograde orbit, a fine early Spring is definitely, or rather potentially, on the cards.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Oh no, the GFS 12z run looks very watered down for next week's Northerly plunge!

Edited October 25, 2017 by prolongedSnowLover

[Frost HoIIow]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Oh no, the GFS 12z run looks very watered down for next week's Northerly plunge!

What's new? these days Northerly's almost always get corrected east. I'm not surprised at all to be honest. Having said that there's still time for a correction west. It's over a week away after all.

[Wimbledon88]

Looks like any 'cold' will be fleeting.

Actually any vaguely interesting weather will be fleeting. Beeb 10 day going for HP to move in late next week. 

My prediction is it will slip SE into the continent and sit there for an age!

We know the rest.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Looks like any 'cold' will be fleeting.

Actually any vaguely interesting weather will be fleeting. Beeb 10 day going for HP to move in late next week. 

My prediction is it will slip SE into the continent and sit there for an age!

We know the rest.

Turkey

[mulzy]

Every year we talk about this year being different, this will be the one etc etc.  Spurious correlations and pattern matching techniques are then brought out as evidence as to why this year will be different.  Happens every damn year.  Guess what I am predicting for winter?  Yep, wet, mild an windy.  Shoot me down if you wish but that is and will always be the form horse!

 

Rant over!!!!

Edited October 25, 2017 by mulzy

[Froze were the Days]

4 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

What's new? these days Northerly's almost always get corrected east. I'm not surprised at all to be honest. Having said that there's still time for a correction west. It's over a week away after all.

Yep corrected east or a northerly being 'flattened' out as per 168z onwards...key area is to get heights away from southern Europe, the end of this run just wants heights to be re-established again there, this has been the pattern by and large since early June. Only the first half of September did we see some consistent amplification and cooler temperatures. All eyes down over Iberia/Spain and generally to the south east, see heights there this winter and we're stuffed!

[Spikey M]

Nice to see the downgrades starting early this year.

 

if we’re really lucky we could have people declaring winter over before Christmas this year.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Spikey M

[mushymanrob]

'downgrades' have been going on all summer, promised settled spells have not materialised, we have had a strong jet stream and still have one somewhere. so it should really come as no surprise to anyone, except newbies, that a fi prediction of a cold blast is taken off the table, for now at least.

the point being - it doesnt happen to fi cold spells alone.

[DAVID SNOW]

"Guys" Or "Hey guys" Should be seriously considered for the swear filter.

"Building blocks" And "Potential"  Pale into insignificance ...

A cool outlook perhaps?

[Spikey M]

15 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

'downgrades' have been going on all summer, promised settled spells have not materialised, we have had a strong jet stream and still have one somewhere. so it should really come as no surprise to anyone, except newbies, that a fi prediction of a cold blast is taken off the table, for now at least.

the point being - it doesnt happen to fi cold spells alone.

Ah, you see, I thought weather models were 100% accurate the rest of the year. It wasn’t a throw away comment regarding the coldies toys exiting the pram early this year or anything. Silly me.

[Polar Maritime]

So the ext meto forecast avg sometimes slightly below temps till mid-November, Pretty much what the models are suggesting, Nice and seasonal..

Edited October 27, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The latest EPS 46 has the T2m below average from around the 2nd -14th then around average to the 23rd and then above average to the 11th December

 

 

Edited October 27, 2017 by knocker