Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[mushymanrob]

a nice warm/very warm spell is nailed, but its nothing new, unusual nor exceptional. spells like this are to be expected as part of the fabric of a normal autumn. it very rarely gets cold this soon.

[Met4Cast]

It almost feels like the weather has reverted back to the 90's. The main thing the last few winters have had is the Euro high setting up and going nowhere. It seems to be following that same pattern so far this autumn.

Lets hope it's not another winter of waiting for the Euro High to sod off.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I know there's already this fear that current weather patterns are going to be stuck in a rut for a long time, and possibly spoiling yet another Winter season. But seriously aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves here. At least it's only October. Surely there's plenty of scope for change yet. Besides even if temps we're below average now, it wouldn't guarantee Winter temps would also be. I believe Autumn 1974 was pretty chilly, but the Winter that followed has a bad reputation for cold fans. There's also that old saying about Ice in November to bear a duck, the following Winter will be rain and muck, or something like that. Not that that's always true as well, but it surely came from experience of such happening, probably more than once, which if nothing else illustrates that just because the weather's doing one thing now, doesn't mean it will still be doing it further down the road. Probably just better saving any concerns until Winter is actually imminent.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Andy Bown]

I totally agree that it is way too soon to be concerned. As a thought on this matter ; if the pattern that occurred for a lot of August into September had been in winter it would have been a decent one.

[Ice Man 85]

Today I think is the Coldies' last rites. Eat, drink and be chilly. For tomorrow, we sweat.

[Mokidugway]

Temps as high as 24 c on Monday  in the north west 

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Temps as high as 24 c on Monday  in the north west 

Not seen a single weather site claim that yet. 22 at a push, maybe.

[Mokidugway]

9 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Not seen a single weather site claim that yet. 22 at a push, maybe.

Netweathers own so must be right 

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Netweathers own so must be right 

Oh yeah. 22 feels like 29? Complete rubbish. I'm no expert but its humidity that pushes those "feel like" temps up most of the time. They've shown cooler temps under higher humidity for crying out loud.

Whatever it ends up being, its absolutely vile.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

Oh yeah. 22 feels like 29? Complete rubbish. I'm no expert but its humidity that pushes those "feel like" temps up most of the time. They've shown cooler temps under higher humidity for crying out loud.

Whatever it ends up being, its absolutely vile.

It's windy too so humidex is out of the window  

[Ice Man 85]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    

A slight reduction in the forward motion of Ophelia allows the plume to stick around a few hours longer on Monday. Optimal setup for maximising temps. In fact, given that back in May this year GFS fell a few degrees short with the highest temps when conditions were warm but very breezy, I'd not rule out a localised 25*C this side of the Channel. Incredible to see France largely in the mid-high 20s, let alone having already spent the weekend hitting the mid-20s widely.

  

This push back of the Euro High on Tuesday seemed to spring up quite suddenly yesterday evening, and while the 12z applies more pressure from the Atlantic troughs than the previous two runs, this only serves to place us under tight pressure gradients for a time before the ridge winds out anyway - albeit with some cooler air cutting in rather than the balmy setup of what was a pretty extraordinary 06z in terms of implications for the month-mean temperatures.

Hopefully this sneaky 'attack of the Euro High' is not a trend that will still be with us a month from now (as much as GloSea5 seems to think it will be... how dare it eh?).

I've asked around and a few local farmers are willing to lend me a dozen or so pitchforks. So if anyone wants to join my angry mob to chase the AH back where it belongs, sign ups are now open.

[mushymanrob]

35 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Not seen a single weather site claim that yet. 22 at a push, maybe.

phil avery did on the tellybox, sun/mon in any sun temps could reach 23c even higher 24c..

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

phil avery did on the tellybox, sun/mon in any sun temps could reach 23c even higher 24c..

[NorthYorksWeather]

Never thought I'd wish my life away, but wake me up in a weeks time when its over.

Forecast a low of 16c here tomorrow night, that's not far off our summers warmest night temp.

Trying to look at the positives, such as no need to burn wood yet and also may as well get this vile pattern out the way before the real fun and games begin November onwards.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by vizzy2004

[Ice Man 85]

13 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Never thought I'd wish my life away, but wake me up in a weeks time when its over.

Forecast a low of 16c here tomorrow night, that's not far off our summers warmest night temp.

Trying to look at the positives, such as no need to burn wood yet and also may as well get this vile pattern out the way before the real fun and games begin November onwards.

 

 

If these model runs get any worse then I'll be booking a stint in Ashworth. The ECM 12z is going for a sodding redux at day 9. The Scots don't know how lucky they are to have dodged every bullet from the Azores since the end of May.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Ice Man 85

[Froze were the Days]

Ridiculous synoptics...now everything wants to come up from Spain and in 9/10 days time thereafter. It's either that or an Atlantic borefest with little decently cool Pm air to be seen.

Apparently Polar Maritime air mass is the most common over the British Isles - really !?!

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculous synoptics...now everything wants to come up from Spain and in 9/10 days time thereafter. It's either that or an Atlantic borefest with little decently cool Pm air to be seen.

Apparently Polar Maritime air mass is the most common over the British Isles - really !?!

Tell that to the heat lovers. The Azores High they love so much is what keeps dragging that crap our way.

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, vizzy2004 said:

Never thought I'd wish my life away, but wake me up in a weeks time when its over.

Forecast a low of 16c here tomorrow night, that's not far off our summers warmest night temp.

Trying to look at the positives, such as no need to burn wood yet and also may as well get this vile pattern out the way before the real fun and games begin November onwards.

 

 

Best make that week a month if the ECM has anything to say about it. Any cold snaps we do get this year will last about as long as a virgin in a frat house.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Ice Man 85

[Ice Man 85]

23 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculous synoptics...now everything wants to come up from Spain and in 9/10 days time thereafter. It's either that or an Atlantic borefest with little decently cool Pm air to be seen.

Apparently Polar Maritime air mass is the most common over the British Isles - really !?!

The ECM Mean is much better for the 850s at least.

[DAVID SNOW]

Oh lord! The end is nigh.

A late burst of summer, its as if the weather is struggling to find its new identity in its transition from summer to autumn.

It will work it out for sure..

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Oh lord! The end is nigh.

A late burst of summer, its as if the weather is struggling to find its new identity in its transition from summer to autumn.

It will work it out for sure..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

41 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculous synoptics...now everything wants to come up from Spain and in 9/10 days time thereafter. It's either that or an Atlantic borefest with little decently cool Pm air to be seen.

Apparently Polar Maritime air mass is the most common over the British Isles - really !?!

PM air can stay away, hate it

Edited October 12, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

PM air can stay away, hate it

You've got nothing to worry about.

[Wimbledon88]

4 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I've asked around and a few local farmers are willing to lend me a dozen or so pitchforks. So if anyone wants to join my angry mob to chase the AH back where it belongs, sign ups are now open.

You wont be very popular on the Mod Thread if that were to happen.

They love a good old AH slug over on there!

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, SW1988 said:

You wont be very popular on the Mod Thread if that were to happen.

They love a good old AH slug over on there!

I've been the local pariah since May lol. I'm used to it!