Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Polar Maritime]

55 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

... i ought to add.... i use my leaf blower to clear the grass of dew on mornings like this . a giant hair drier, lol.

When needs must Mushy, As the saying goes 'Where there's a will, There's a way' 

[Northwest NI]

Anyone want to give an amateur forecast for Reykjavik from 1st to 5th October using the models? Going there for a break. First in several years. I joined this forum to learn and have my own ideas how the weather in that period might pan out. I would be interested to hear from more experienced people's interpretation. 

[wellington boot]

2 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Anyone want to give an amateur forecast for Reykjavik from 1st to 5th October using the models? Going there for a break. First in several years. I joined this forum to learn and have my own ideas how the weather in that period might pan out. I would be interested to hear from more experienced people's interpretation. 

It will be chilly with a fair amount of rain.

Didn't even need to check the models for that one...

[mushymanrob]

well im a bit peeved that yet again this summer/autumn high pressure fails to establish and produce a lengthy, nationwide, settled spell.

of course IF this pattern continues, it means no lengthy cold this winter, but that doesnt rule out a 36/60 hour blast.

[johnholmes]

Try this link it is the Icelandic Met Office own forecast, touch more reliable than given above!

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/

[Wildswimmer Pete]

20 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Anyone want to give an amateur forecast for Reykjavik from 1st to 5th October using the models? Going there for a break. First in several years. I joined this forum to learn and have my own ideas how the weather in that period might pan out. I would be interested to hear from more experienced people's interpretation. 

Depending on what you're looking for.  Swimming holidays ideal because of the abundance of geothermally warmed pools including of course the Blue Lagoon.  Fortunately the weather is irrelevant. 

http://www.bluelagoon.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Lagoon_(geothermal_spa)

Edited September 23, 2017 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Northwest NI]

1 hour ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Depending on what you're looking for.  Swimming holidays ideal because of the abundance of geothermally warmed pools including of course the Blue Lagoon.  Fortunately the weather is irrelevant. 

http://www.bluelagoon.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Lagoon_(geothermal_spa)

Yes , the Blue Lagoon is part of the plan! Reason I was asking for forecasts is I am hoping that it is colder rather than mild mush which we are so used to in British Isles. Your are correct in saying the weather is largely irrelevant as none of the activities I have planned depend on the weather. I'd just like maybe to see the Northern Lights which does require a clear night. A forecast of high pressure for that period would be ideal.

[mb018538]

21 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Anyone want to give an amateur forecast for Reykjavik from 1st to 5th October using the models? Going there for a break. First in several years. I joined this forum to learn and have my own ideas how the weather in that period might pan out. I would be interested to hear from more experienced people's interpretation. 

I would say fairly standard weather for the time of year - low pressure, with some wind and rain unfortunately. Model output is all showing a trough in the Iceland area....so I'd pack plenty of warm clothes, and some waterproofs! Temps probably in the 9-12c region.

[Northwest NI]

I'm hearing of potential for a very vigorous low to traverse British Isles on 2nd October so hopefully that will pull some Northerlies down through Iceland while I'm there.

[Northwest NI]

38 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

I'm hearing of potential for a very vigorous low to traverse British Isles on 2nd October so hopefully that will pull some Northerlies down through Iceland while I'm there.

 

Edited September 23, 2017 by Northwest NI

[cheese]

On 23/09/2017 at 07:24, mushymanrob said:

well im a bit peeved that yet again this summer/autumn high pressure fails to establish and produce a lengthy, nationwide, settled spell.

of course IF this pattern continues, it means no lengthy cold this winter, but that doesnt rule out a 36/60 hour blast.

It has been a thoroughly rotten September - the coolness isn't a problem so much as the the rain that's fallen on nearly every day. It's getting to be ridiculous now. The ground is becoming sodden - and September is way too early for tat.

If we could have a week without rain, and a couple of day with sunshine - you know, where the sun actually shines all day instead of giving way to rain in the afternoon - that would be great.

Edited September 24, 2017 by cheese

[lumberjack]

Been reading this site for a few months, learning a lot. Feel bad for you UK dwellers re. the 'summer'....I lived there for 12 years before moving to central europe / alps. It is sunny here about 300 days a year. Am fed up with hot dry weather like today and can not wait for temps to drop. Last 4 winter seasons were relatively mild and dry, so I have built up a strong disliking for the Azores.

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, lumberjack said:

Been reading this site for a few months, learning a lot. Feel bad for you UK dwellers re. the 'summer'....I lived there for 12 years before moving to central europe / alps. It is sunny here about 300 days a year. Am fed up with hot dry weather like today and can not wait for temps to drop. Last 4 winter seasons were relatively mild and dry, so I have built up a strong disliking for the Azores.

The Azores High is about as welcome as meat at a vegan festival.

[markyo]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

It has been a thoroughly rotten September - the coolness isn't a problem so much as the the rain that's fallen on nearly every day. It's getting to be ridiculous now. The ground is becoming sodden - and September is way too early for tat.

If we could have a week without rain, and a couple of day with sunshine - you know, where the sun actually shines all day instead of giving way to rain in the afternoon - that would be great.

Not sure rain has fallen every day,not even close to be honest,quite a bit i admit but not excessive by any means. Just proper Autumn weather really. Very nice for a change.

Edited September 24, 2017 by markyo

[cheese]

I have recorded some precipitation on 18 days this month. 13 days over 1mm. That is objectively a lot. In a typical September we get 8 days of rain. September on average here actually gets fewer rain days than any other month.

This might be proper October weather but it is definitely not proper September weather. This September is shaping up to be a cool, cloudy and wet affair. 

People celebrating a 'proper' autumn month seem to have some very strange ideas about what a typical September is supposed to be like.

Edited September 24, 2017 by cheese

[DAVID SNOW]

55 minutes ago, cheese said:

I have recorded some precipitation on 18 days this month. 13 days over 1mm. That is objectively a lot. In a typical September we get 8 days of rain. September on average here actually gets fewer rain days than any other month.

This might be proper October weather but it is definitely not proper September weather. This September is shaping up to be a cool, cloudy and wet affair. 

People celebrating a 'proper' autumn month seem to have some very strange ideas about what a typical September is supposed to be like.

What is a typical September supposed to be like?

Down here its been rather nice, no extension of summer (heat) and not too wet, temperatures a little below the LTA (so far) and some warm early Autumn  sun to enjoy too.

It all fits within the LTA

[markyo]

14 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

What is a typical September supposed to be like?

Down here its been rather nice, no extension of summer (heat) and not too wet, temperatures a little below the LTA (so far) and some warm early Autumn  sun to enjoy too.

It all fits within the LTA

I agree,this September very much fits in the with the LTA. Makes a very nice change for once to have a change of season in the right month!

[MP-R]

To be honest, since mid month it's been fairly standard September weather here. It was just unusual to have such an unsettled first week and the first named storm before the Equinox.

I think some people's perceptions of September have also been skewed by warmer and more settled ones in the last 10 years or so.

[WillinGlossop]

On 23/09/2017 at 15:34, Northwest NI said:

 

I'm also going to Reykjavik 2-5th October then Halifax Nova Scotia for ten days... booked blue lagoon... hoping for a glimpse of northern lights too... 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/node/114 3day forecast for aurora....

[Northwest NI]

44 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I'm also going to Reykjavik 2-5th October then Halifax Nova Scotia for ten days... booked blue lagoon... hoping for a glimpse of northern lights too... 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/node/114 3day forecast for aurora....

We may have a bumpy flight! Where you flying out of? 

[WillinGlossop]

22 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

We may have a bumpy flight! Where you flying out of? 

Flying from Manchester... great deal with Iceland air.... yep saw that Monday looks a bit breezy... looking good atm for high pressure ridging Iceland 3-5th (gfs) so maybe just maybe clear nights fingers crossed just hope the aurora appears... 

[Ice Man 85]

Not particularly pleasant today; far too muggy. Nothing worse than rainy weather when the air is sourced from a warm direction. I really wish that Azores High would <insert profanity here> off.

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Not particularly pleasant today; far too muggy. Nothing worse than rainy weather when the air is sourced from a warm direction. I really wish that Azores High would <insert profanity here> off.

.... yes there is, when its sourced from a cold direction. nothing worse then cold wet, i prefer snow to that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

51 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

.... yes there is, when its sourced from a cold direction. nothing worse then cold wet, i prefer snow to that.

yes, definitely, would rather rain at 13° than 2°

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

.... yes there is, when its sourced from a cold direction. nothing worse then cold wet, i prefer snow to that.

At least when it's cold, you can wear a coat to keep warm rather than overheat. Warm rain is just a pain, unless of the torrential variety hehe.