Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Northernlights]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

the worst summer before modern times (last ten years or so) was 1985.. that type of summer seems pretty normal now.

A summer etched on my memory when we still had half the barley to cut on the 11th of October  (normally mid August to mid September). Eventually said to my last employee who had been a milk roundman for a time we should start combining at 3.00am as every night seemed to be dry and windy.and the rain arrived about 9.00am. Did this for a couple of nights and slept during the day. After a week of odd nights doing this we noticed some of our neighbours doing the same. The straw that needed baling for cattle bedding never dried properly  was baled on a dull breezy day late in October.This then turned mouldy and we had to wear masks all winter to bed the cattle. The very wet grain took three months to dry on an old on the floor dryer  (now a member of a Coop with five dryers driing up to 800 tonnes a day) and could not be sold till Christmas. Was speaking to a local contractor today and were just saying how large machinery has become and the speed we can do and cover so much in a day and in spite of this the weather still puts us under pressure and we wondered how we ever coped 40 years ago.The weather must have  kinder then!!!

[danm]

Today has been one of the worst summer days I can remember down here. So unusual to get this sort of weather in early August.

Looking forward to sunny spells and 22c tomorrow but unfortunately no heat to speak of in the outlook. 

[markyo]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Interesting little work of fiction that turned out to be.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Interesting little work of fiction that turned out to be.

As most long range forecasts tend to be - not worth the paper or internet space they are written on.

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As most long range forecasts tend to be - not worth the paper or internet space they are written on.

I agree ..

utterly pointless.This summer being a case in point, even the meto medium term forecasts have been wrong , very wrong, so what chance of a forecast MONTHS in advance being correct?

There are far too many variables at play, and in recent years whatever the variables it still leaves the uk with a crap summer and a mild wet winter nearly every time.

[carinthian]

52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree ..

utterly pointless.This summer being a case in point, even the meto medium term forecasts have been wrong , very wrong, so what chance of a forecast MONTHS in advance being correct?

There are far too many variables at play, and in recent years whatever the variables it still leaves the uk with a crap summer and a mild wet winter nearly every time.

I only remembered two good summers when I lived in the North, 1959 and 1976. More luck with the winters, 62/63 and several more in the 1960s, especially 1969 ( snowy Feb ) Several in the late 70s, especially Feb 1979 and the last one when I lived up there , probabaly Dec 1981. Must have been a few more since but more so of a rarity these past few decades I would think. 

 C

[karyo]

I am in the mood for autumn and can't wait to see the leaves turn yellow and red! :-)

[weatherguru14]

they will be a mucky green colour this year..

[mushymanrob]

18 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Summers 85-88 were more notable for being poor than recent summers. And what about 77-82

late may 78 was hot
may 80 was hot
late may 82 was hot

hmmm a pattern emerging here?

at least those summers had a hot spell, albeit short lived , many summers in the last ten years (away from the southeast) have been very poor.

85 was not hot, and yep 86 wasnt very good either... the hottest day in 85 was oct 1st , the only day we got 25c.

[northwestsnow]

32 minutes ago, karyo said:

I am in the mood for autumn and can't wait to see the leaves turn yellow and red! :-)

Erm...its been Autumn since...autumn round these parts K...seems like an age when the NW winter thread was alive and buzzing..

[karyo]

45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Erm...its been Autumn since...autumn round these parts K...seems like an age when the NW winter thread was alive and buzzing..

I wonder if we will get something resembling winter this time. The only snow I've seen this year was in the Pyrenees in May.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karyo said:

I wonder if we will get something resembling winter this time. The only snow I've seen this year was in the Pyrenees in May.

Hope so!! I do miss the regional thread in winter...radar watching and all the fun and banter ( and in my case frustration when the snow showers duck me)..after years of weather watching i have concluded my area sucks in every possible way..in winter qhen we do get a rare South easterly i get the shadow effect ( ie the peak district gobbles up the precipitation).The only hope for me is a direc t easterly ( which happen about once every 5 years) or a north easter which are equally as rare, even in summer the pennines attract clouds like moths to a flame...im sat outside now and i have been since 9am think ive so far had about 45mins of sun..the only thing in my favour is altitude( 200m) which in the current climate counts for absolutely nothing.

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope so!! I do miss the regional thread in winter...radar watching and all the fun and banter ( and in my case frustration when the snow showers duck me)..after years of weather watching i have concluded my area sucks in every possible way..in winter qhen we do get a rare South easterly i get the shadow effect ( ie the peak district gobbles up the precipitation).The only hope for me is a direc t easterly ( which happen about once every 5 years) or a north easter which are equally as rare, even in summer the pennines attract clouds like moths to a flame...im sat outside now and i have been since 9am think ive so far had about 45mins of sun..the only thing in my favour is altitude( 200m) which in the current climate counts for absolutely nothing.

Yes, I share your frustration. It's been terrible in the last few years.

Hopefully the solar minimum will give us a couple of good winters before climate change and warmer oceans cancel UK winters completely.

[78/79]

Matt H tried to make the best of it with today's weather headline, trouble is , you can't polish a turd.

[Evening thunder]

15 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Wheesht... might have to wait till october this year. What a depressing outlook from CFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

 

 

 

This is what worries me and makes the current weather/outlook and change from previous thoughts even worse.. RIP seasonal variability.

Of course, we could hope that goes the same way as the summer thoughts but it feels more likely to be correct somehow.. one wouldn't bet against it that's for sure.

[Gael_Force]

21 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

This is what worries me and makes the current weather/outlook and change from previous thoughts even worse.. RIP seasonal variability.

Of course, we could hope that goes the same way as the summer thoughts but it feels more likely to be correct somehow.. one wouldn't bet against it that's for sure.

Every season has its failures in the long rangers but the CFS never really indicated anything other than average for this summer. It has been a bit above but that has come about by a few very above periods rather than generally warmer across the board.

[karyo]

17 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Wheesht... might have to wait till october this year. What a depressing outlook from CFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

 

 

 

Nov-Jan look strange to me because not only Europe is above average but also Iceland. I would expect Iceland to be cold meaning there would be vigorous depressions between Iceland and Scotland and southwesterlies for a good part of Europe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No rain today amazing! been perfect summer day, (not childhood August) but good, but back to normal on Mon and Wed next week

[stainesbloke]

Well a much better afternoon here after a dreary and chilly morning. Lots of sunshine after lunch and onwards with the temperature actually hitting average (22C)!! Just shows how bad it has been to get excited by that, hehe

[cheshire snow]

JFF repeat JFF

The GFS 150 day outlook is a cracker for new Year 10 day cold snap with ice

Days and snow.

Yes I know it will be different tomorrow and I know it won't happen but Hay it's

Fun to look.

C.S. 

[Evening thunder]

17 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Every season has its failures in the long rangers but the CFS never really indicated anything other than average for this summer. It has been a bit above but that has come about by a few very above periods rather than generally warmer across the board.

Yeah, I was thinking about what the likes of GP, Tamera, and to an extent the Met Office and also their seasonal probability maps were going for . Even more worrying if the CFS was close to the mark this summer then lol (well not really for me I guess as it might be wrong and worrying won't change anything)

[karyo]

15 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

JFF repeat JFF

The GFS 150 day outlook is a cracker for new Year 10 day cold snap with ice

Days and snow.

Yes I know it will be different tomorrow and I know it won't happen but Hay it's

Fun to look.

C.S. 

Yes, we need some good things to focus on!

[danm]

Beautiful day today in London after the horror show of Wednesday! 

Clear blue sunny skies, becoming a bit hazy now. 22c. 

Edited August 11, 2017 by danm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sums this summer up, so many times this happens, not sure why, or if it's just unlucky, but for the west Midlands, Tues and Wed look washed out, but then look when dry window timed for 

[summer blizzard]

Christ.. The GFS12z is forecasting 50mm of rain in 9 hours on Tuesday and 10C maxima under heavy rain on Friday. 

A great week coming up for autumn lovers and one which hopefully cement downward pressure on the CET.