Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[blizzard81]

23 hours ago, cheese said:

Thing is, our summers prior to 2007 were warming quite nicely. Since 2007 summer temperatures in the UK have basically ground to a halt or even reversed despite other parts of the year breaking records for warmth and mildness. And if you look at other places in Europe, they have warmed up significantly in summer over the past 10 years while we have not. At the current rate even northern Scandinavia will have warmer summers than much of England because our summer temperatures have basically flat-lined while theirs have skyrocketed (relative to the old averages).

Indeed, I would be surprised if summers in the UK show much if any warming at all when the 1991-2020 averages are released but I have no doubt the other three seasons will show big increases. I bet the 1991-2020 averages will show summers have gotten cloudier as well (but again the other seasons getting sunnier).

The difference between the seasons in the UK continues to get smaller.. and for people like myself who appreciate four seasons, this is not a positive development. No, the UK has never been a good place for four-season lovers, but it is getting progressively worse. And of course if you like warm or hot weather, you want warming to occur in summer primarily, because that's when it is actually beneficial.

This is because our weather is controlled and manipulated by the money mad elite bigots. 

[Evening thunder]

Seems we're stuck in a pattern we can't get out of, any hints of improvement put back but I knew I shouldn't believe any false dawns.

For me this pattern has been somewhat disappointing. Especially considering what had been presented as 'very likely' etc... To be honest I can't help but feel too much weight can be put on mid/longer term signals etc given that often over the past year (when they've been interesting enough for me to remember) they seem to have been wrong.. Just like last winter's very bad luck, and some nice weather in early July did happen in the south after almost being dismissed.

Anyway, even the pacific NW is getting a major heatwave, in places even more intense than we can get.. I probably wouldn't want it that hot but coupled with how I often watched sub zero maxima and -15 850hpa charts last winter for places like Vancouver, even their oceanic climate puts our samey crap to shame. 

In my records (9 years, 2008-16) August's mean maxima has averaged nearly 1C below the local 1981-10 average...

The models are getting worse.. looking at the ECM, we're struggling to even get 850's above 5C now unless it's with a frontal system  Goodness knows when I'll next get even an average day!

Needed to vent some frustration, but think I have good reason to be annoyed, especially as this is coinciding perfectly with my 3 weeks off.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Evening thunder

[Frost HoIIow]

11 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Seems we're stuck in a pattern we can't get out of, any hints of improvement put back but I knew I shouldn't believe any false dawns.

For me this pattern has been somewhat disappointing. Especially considering what had been presented as 'very likely' etc... To be honest I can't help but feel too much weight can be put on mid/longer term signals etc given that often over the past year (when they've been interesting enough for me to remember) they seem to have been wrong.. Just like last winter's very bad luck, and some nice weather in early July did happen in the south after almost being dismissed.

Anyway, even the pacific NW is getting a major heatwave, in places even more intense than we can get.. I probably wouldn't want it that hot but coupled with how I often watched sub zero maxima and -15 850hpa charts last winter for places like Vancouver, even their oceanic climate puts our samey crap to shame. 

In my records (9 years, 2008-16) August's mean maxima has averaged nearly 1C below the local 1981-10 average...

The models are getting worse.. looking at the ECM, we're struggling to even get 850's above 5C now unless it's with a frontal system  Goodness knows when I'll next get even an average day!

Needed to vent some frustration, but think I have good reason to be annoyed, especially as this is coinciding perfectly with my 3 weeks off.

Indeed. At any time of year I don't bother taking post day 5 as gospel, after that it's just too risky to take seriously or tell friends/relatives, the odd time the signals further ahead can come true but more often than not it doesn't. In the winter it's exciting to see the beast from the east lurking but often it becomes obvious we're being led down the garden path once we get into the reliable time frame. Happens so many times.

[knocker]

I must admit when I see the terms 'common sense and human input' being bandied around in the other thread as part of a brief critique of the METO I seriously wonder just how high can the irony bar be raised?

[Mokidugway]

How can we get an improvement, autumn racing towards us like Guy Martin at the TT ,it's over part from a few settled days ,at least here in the north west 

[mushymanrob]

you cannot judge any month by temps alone... in this case augusts. some recent augusts might be recorded as 'above average' temp wise, but that could be because of higher overnight minima - and what matters how warm it is is its cloudy and wet overhead!

for me, any august needs to be measured by - sunshine - temps - precipitation, and away from the southeast, augusts have been below par, well below in some cases.

[Evening thunder]

56 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Indeed. At any time of year I don't bother taking post day 5 as gospel, after that it's just too risky to take seriously or tell friends/relatives, the odd time the signals further ahead can come true but more often than not it doesn't. In the winter it's exciting to see the beast from the east lurking but often it becomes obvious we're being led down the garden path once we get into the reliable time frame. Happens so many times.

Yeah, I tend to not let much slip apart from to close family/friends that understand or I make it clear it needs a large dose of salt. I remember some good forecasting successes such as winter 2010/11 from the likes of Glacier Point etc, probably got my hopes up a bit too much. Still, why do I get the feeling that some recent charts for Autumn into Winter will be far more successful...lol

Anyway, I can't complain about the first half of summer down here (has been worse up north), just a shame after all that promise it had to go so wrong (for my preferences) and not leave a good feeling summer overall.

[northwestsnow]

Lost the will with this 'summer' now.

When the dust has settled and Kevins manchester index is updated it will make sorry reading for us poor sods up north.

 

[stainesbloke]

Apart from a mediocre attempt at summer yesterday, it's back to 18C, October gloom and drizzle. Funny that, I thought I lived in London, not the Hebrides where this crap is normal. Everything is way too far south, yet again. Thank God I'm off to Spain in a fortnight. 

Edited August 7, 2017 by stainesbloke

[weatherguru14]

what we need is a really cold spring with light winds.. so  everything dies a death as the summer approaches. Everything as been too mobile this summer..

I don't want heatwave after heatwave. Just a lot more what I would consider  summer days.Been very few I would class as summer days this year.. Its been   a very poor summer  I must say..
 

Edited August 7, 2017 by weatherguru14

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Thank God I'm off to Spain in a fortnight. 

Been roasting here for the last fortnight. Touching 40 degrees in the open daily.

Back home tomorrow to the cool rain.

Hope your digs have aircon!

[danm]

After a glorious Sunday, today is mostly cloudy and dry down here. Wednesday is looking dire! 17c and heavy rain all day is depressing.

[danm]

Here is the daytime maxima chart for the last 12 weeks at Heathrow. A clear change from 19th July - the temperature hasn't risen above 23c since then, whereas there were several warm/hot spells before that right from late May. The gap in the graph on 21st June is when the temperature reached 34c - seems a long time ago now! 

[AderynCoch]

Certainly can't complain about summer here. For the most part it's been high 20s/low 30s with thundery breakdowns and only short cooler interludes. We had our heatwave last week with temperatures up to 37.9C and some nights above 25C; now it is back down to 27C, which is the average high for the time of year. Mid-30s possible again on Thursday before another thundery breakdown on Friday.

I recommend Slovak summers if you like heat but not Iraq levels of heat as well as some variety (hotter days, cooler days, thunderstorms, etc.).

[78/79]

June and first part of July not too bad here, since then absolutely gash. Roll on Autumn  , at least I expect this sort of useless cr...p then

[karyo]

2 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

Certainly can't complain about summer here. For the most part it's been high 20s/low 30s with thundery breakdowns and only short cooler interludes. We had our heatwave last week with temperatures up to 37.9C and some nights above 25C; now it is back down to 27C, which is the average high for the time of year. Mid-30s possible again on Thursday before another thundery breakdown on Friday.

I recommend Slovak summers if you like heat but not Iraq levels of heat as well as some variety (hotter days, cooler days, thunderstorms, etc.).

I would go if I could cherry pick the thundery breakdowns and the cooler interludes.

I would happily stay there all winter! lol

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, danm said:

Here is the daytime maxima chart for the last 12 weeks at Heathrow. A clear change from 19th July - the temperature hasn't risen above 23c since then, whereas there were several warm/hot spells before that right from late May. The gap in the graph on 21st June is when the temperature reached 34c - seems a long time ago now! 

Just shows how poor it has been. For Heathrow not to record above the average daily maximum for nearly 3 weeks in summer is horrendous. Add in all the cloud and wind, looks like autumn started a good 6 weeks early!

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Been roasting here for the last fortnight. Touching 40 degrees in the open daily.

Back home tomorrow to the cool rain.

Hope your digs have aircon!

That's very warm! Not as hot on the Mar Menor coast, low 30's maximums which is fine. No aircon in our place but decent fans in each room plus a nice pool. 

 

2 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

Certainly can't complain about summer here. For the most part it's been high 20s/low 30s with thundery breakdowns and only short cooler interludes. We had our heatwave last week with temperatures up to 37.9C and some nights above 25C; now it is back down to 27C, which is the average high for the time of year. Mid-30s possible again on Thursday before another thundery breakdown on Friday.

I recommend Slovak summers if you like heat but not Iraq levels of heat as well as some variety (hotter days, cooler days, thunderstorms, etc.).

Sounds lovely. I can't wait to move to Prague next year. Not quite as warm as Bratislava, more exposed to Atlantic incursions but still warmer, generally much more settled and sunnier than the UK with great thunderstorms. 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

That's very warm! Not as hot on the Mar Menor coast, low 30's maximums which is fine. No aircon in our place but decent fans in each room plus a nice pool. 

 

Sounds lovely. I can't wait to move to Prague next year. Not quite as warm as Bratislava, more exposed to Atlantic incursions but still warmer, generally much more settled and sunnier than the UK with great thunderstorms. 

Make sure you take Euros with you.  Do not use the ATM. Cost us £204 for €200!!

Thanks Brexiters.  

[stainesbloke]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Make sure you take Euros with you.  Do not use the ATM. Cost us £204 for €200!!

Thanks Brexiters.  

Think you forgot the 'sh' in between the 'x' and 'i' and also an extra 't'.

A lovely 29C currently where I'm going in Spain. Cocktails on the terrace, as opposed to huddling indoors here from the cool and wet. At least the athletics is on.

[mushymanrob]

56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Make sure you take Euros with you.  Do not use the ATM. Cost us £204 for €200!!

Thanks Brexiters.  

you will be thanking us in the future... youll see.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Make sure you take Euros with you.  Do not use the ATM. Cost us £204 for €200!!

Thanks Brexiters.  

Any need to bring politics into this? Isn't there a thread for that?

[Matthew.]

9 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

what we need is a really cold spring with light winds.. so  everything dies a death as the summer approaches. Everything as been too mobile this summer..

I don't want heatwave after heatwave. Just a lot more what I would consider  summer days.Been very few I would class as summer days this year.. Its been   a very poor summer  I must say..
 

I think you've hit the nail on the head with spring. The sunniest most settled summers do have average or cooler springs in general.

[mb018538]

That average temp chart for Heathrow says it all.... 3 weeks solid of below average temperatures. It's been awful. I honestly can't believe how tits up this summer has gone since early July, especially as France and Spain have baked, and it was so warm here beforehand. Can't wait for winter to come round and be disappointed yet again with either a massive PV and mild westerlies, or a broken vortex like last winter and still nothing to shout about. We have to have the most fickle climate going!

[stainesbloke]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That average temp chart for Heathrow says it all.... 3 weeks solid of below average temperatures. It's been awful. I honestly can't believe how tits up this summer has gone since early July, especially as France and Spain have baked, and it was so warm here beforehand. Can't wait for winter to come round and be disappointed yet again with either a massive PV and mild westerlies, or a broken vortex like last winter and still nothing to shout about. We have to have the most fickle climate going!

Even the Pacific Northwest has had/is having lovely warm weather. NW Europe can't be the only place getting the crap?