Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[CK1981]

What I would like to know is, how could the  Met Office get this so catastrophically wrong? With their super computers and insight none of us see, they have seriously dropped the ball, and this isn't the first time. Their credibility as one of the best forecasting agencies in the world is seriously diminishing. I have the utmost respect for the knowledge of their forecasters, but seriously, we have to call their models into question now!!

[danm]

I appreciate some areas of the UK have had a poor summer so far, however down here we really can't complain - we've had lots of dry, sunny, warm/hot weather. We're going through a relatively cool and unsettled spell, but hopefully as we get into August things will pick up again and more areas of the country will benefit. 

[summer blizzard]

I'd be wary of the long range Met Office thoughts because i imagine they are based largely on the Euro ensemble suit and your always going to see a reversion to the mean (i.e. the longer the model goes out, the more likely it is to want a more N/S average scenario). 

[Mokidugway]

In a word north western summer suck ,I don't care I don't give a mongoose  

[CK1981]

I appreciate that, and living in the south, I can't complain about our weather. However, they were touting a lengthy dry, warm and settled spell for a long time. Maybe they should ditch their long term forecasts because they rarely come to fruition. This has been their biggest balls up yet!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

15 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I appreciate that, and living in the south, I can't complain about our weather. However, they were touting a lengthy dry, warm and settled spell for a long time. Maybe they should ditch their long term forecasts because they rarely come to fruition. This has been their biggest balls up yet!

yep and lets not forget about last winter, they forecasted easterlies with sleet and snow but were miles off.

[CK1981]

14 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

yep and lets not forget about last winter, they forecasted easterlies with sleet and snow but were miles off.

Exactly! They keep dropping the ball

[Scorcher]

I think it's a case of so near yet so far for us in NW England so far this summer. We have had plenty of very warm/hot days but haven't been able to string many together as they have in the SE. Also sunshine levels could be better in all honesty. Some of the hot days have also been rather cloudy.

I just have this nagging feeling of summer being over just as it was kicking off here- almost like we've been given a little glimpse of the party that London has been in the middle of but have had the door slammed on us.

It's hard to see a way back now. And I've come to agree with those such as Mushy who say that the second half of August onwards just isn't quite the same- hot spells then are certainly not as good as they are in June and July in my opinion, due to the vegetation, plant life and light levels being past their peak. Of course hot spells at any time are very welcome.

I think the best way now is just to accept that summer may well be over- with that mentality of acceptance, anything we do get on a day to day basis will be a welcome bonus, and if a hot spell does come then great. But no point setting yourself up for disappointment. Just my view.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

59 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

What I would like to know is, how could the  Met Office get this so catastrophically wrong? With their super computers and insight none of us see, they have seriously dropped the ball, and this isn't the first time. Their credibility as one of the best forecasting agencies in the world is seriously diminishing. I have the utmost respect for the knowledge of their forecasters, but seriously, we have to call their models into question now!!

Met office didn't get anything wrong. Their computers were picking up on all the right variables leading to settled conditions but sudden wind changes can alter patterns right at the last minute, call it sods law.. Never blame the weatherman!

[CK1981]

7 hours ago, 40*C said:

Met office didn't get anything wrong. Their computers were picking up on all the right variables leading to settled conditions but sudden wind changes can alter patterns right at the last minute, call it sods law.. Never blame the weatherman!

Well they did get it wrong, otherwise we'd be basking in sun now! I'm not blaming the weathermen at all as I respect their knowledge! Maybe they should ditch their long range forecasts. For over a month they seemed confident in their models. Yes, I'm aware things change, but this was a total pattern change, not just a change in wind direction! 

[Methuselah]

8 hours ago, CK1981 said:

Exactly! They keep dropping the ball

Just like us then!

[northwestsnow]

Ecm is  a horror show this morning, im wondering if Greeny highs in summer is becoming the norm now....

 

[stainesbloke]

Can someone please push the summer switch back on? This hideous, damp and chilly gloom is starting to grate big time and it looks like a good week or more to come. We don't need this crap now, we get enough of it through October to April.

[mushymanrob]

the met office did get it wrong, along with many others. gp and tamara didnt expect this either, and niether did i who was pretty convinced that after 11 years this summer was heading to be at least dry and anticyclonic- based on previous historic patterns plus imho we are long overdue for a widespread dry summer. in my 44 years of cutting grass for a living, this 11 years is by far the longest stretch ive witnessed with no appreciable work loss due to grass browning off.

with a deep mean upper trough taking up residence to our near northwest, the chances now of a long hot summer have evaporated. there wont be anything hot and sunny before mid august at the earliest unless the models do a complete 180' u turn.

and PLEASE dont go on about september being nice... yes it can be, yes its welcome, but its not ' summer' (see below)

Edited July 24, 2017 by mushymanrob

[I remember Atlantic 252]

September can be summer, August seems to be the least summery since '04, just as westerly as Dec and Jan, i'm sure in Scotland August is never summer

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

September can be summer, August seems to be the least summery since '04, just as westerly as Dec and Jan, i'm sure in Scotland August is never summer

The seasons ARE changing, anyone surely can see it, winters are becoming non existent , certainly as far as snow is concerned, and summers are getting worse and worse, certainly as far as my location is concerned.The only question is it cyclical or is it a response to GW..

Whatever it is its becoming REALLY depressing now..

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

September can be summer, August seems to be the least summery since '04, just as westerly as Dec and Jan, i'm sure in Scotland August is never summer

Sept is the new summer! And i think we can even include Oct now.

Summers to be fair are generally mixed round here, i think the biggest change has been the winters...

Edited July 24, 2017 by northwestsnow

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

September can be summer,

it can be warm and sunny, thats true, but if all you require is a bit of sunshine and warmth for it to be 'summer', i pity you!

theres far more to summer then sunshine and warmth... summer like weather in september for me is like boxing day is for a kid..... the party is all but over.

[danm]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Sept is the new summer! And i think we can even include Oct now.

Summers to be fair are generally mixed round here, i think the biggest change has been the winters...

edit.

Edited July 24, 2017 by danm

[danm]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The seasons ARE changing, anyone surely can see it, winters are becoming non existent , certainly as far as snow is concerned, and summers are getting worse and worse, certainly as far as my location is concerned.The only question is it cyclical or is it a response to GW..

Whatever it is its becoming REALLY depressing now..

Hmm, not sure I necessarily buy that. Yes, since 2013/14 we've had a run of mild, relatively snow free winters - the longest run I can remember - however we can sometimes forget that the preceding 5 winters all had great snow events:

2008/09: Feb 2009 - heaviest fall of snow down here since Feb 1991

2009/10: Cold, snowy December and January

2010/11: Record breaking December with snow falling widely from late November

2011/12: Heavy snowfall for many in Feb 2012

2012/13: January and February had decent amounts of cold, snowy weather and many areas had a frigid March.

 

But yes, since then the cold and snowy switch has been turned off. It's most likely cyclical.

Edited July 24, 2017 by danm

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

the met office did get it wrong, along with many others. gp and tamara didnt expect this either, and niether did i who was pretty convinced that after 11 years this summer was heading to be at least dry and anticyclonic- based on previous historic patterns plus imho we are long overdue for a widespread dry summer. in my 44 years of cutting grass for a living, this 11 years is by far the longest stretch ive witnessed with no appreciable work loss due to grass browning off.

with a deep mean upper trough taking up residence to our near northwest, the chances now of a long hot summer have evaporated. there wont be anything hot and sunny before mid august at the earliest unless the models do a complete 180' u turn.

and PLEASE dont go on about september being nice... yes it can be, yes its welcome, but its not ' summer' (see below)

You are talking about the last 11 years being poor ... there's been the problem of very low ice (lowest ice coinciding with the worst summers) ...is there a connection? 

[stainesbloke]

17C and November like levels of light here under dark grey skies and a gusty NW wind. The joy I feel is indescribable! 

[CK1981]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

17C and November like levels of light here under dark grey skies and a gusty NW wind. The joy I feel is indescribable! 

Depressing, isn't it? I'm determined not to wear my jacket yet, but if things don't improve, I will be. This is such a waste of high Summer!

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

Depressing, isn't it? I'm determined not to wear my jacket yet, but if things don't improve, I will be. This is such a waste of high Summer!

Very depressing, just at the time of year when it's most unwelcome. Typical crap UK climate though, nothing new! Hopefully some better output coming soon.

[mb018538]

Dreadful here too - 15c!

I love summer, but this sort of weather makes me yearn for autumn and winter! Looks like I better get used to it.