Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Fantastic Ecm 12z this evening, can't wait for the cool unsettled weather to arrive..bring it on!

disagree with that, seems selfish, that sort of weather affects my chest

[draztik]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

disagree with that, seems selfish, that sort of weather affects my chest

He is joking. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, draztik said:

He is joking. 

GFS though gone much better, other way round to the other day, GFS was vile, ECM good

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Experts on here seem to think ECM is the best, so assume GFS is wrong, decent day for many this, away from the far NW, or has GFS been right? as it was showing what ECM is now

[Evening thunder]

57 minutes ago, draztik said:

Strange. I was saying my gut was telling me what the GFS was showing for days was bang on. And as per tonight's ecm, it seems not a bad call. But yea, everything I say is useless

 

46 minutes ago, draztik said:

Though giving what the ecm is showing, I understand you're quite emotional right now. You're forgiven. I shan't be replying to you again.

Funny how this is the first time you've mentioned the ECM in the last several days, even though you pretended to be objective when in reality you just do the same as you accused others of, i.e only posting what you see when it shows what you want (cool/unsettled or downgrading of warmth)

[Evening thunder]

The ECM run is a bit ridiculous though. How can it go so wrong compared to what was showing and everything was pointing to.

Hey ho, a few people such as one who posts gleefully about 'apples falling off the cart' will be happy.

If that does happen I hope it's at least sunshine and convective showers rather than stuck frontal systems in the low or a slight correction bringing dull stable NW'erlies, but it will probably be the latter.

What looked like the best period of summer may well turn into the worst week of summer. Funnily, the best spells this summer weren't really picked out by models and longer range tools more than 7-10 days before if I recall correctly. Similar thing happened in winter when we had very bad luck with another perfectly timed disturbance... In fact I'm kind of questioning/getting frustrated with the weighting given to these longer range tools when they've often seemed wrong recently, at least when I remember them or they've suggested an interesting outlook.

Edited July 15, 2017 by Evening thunder

[draztik]

9 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

 

Funny how this is the first time you've mentioned the ECM in the last several days, even though you pretended to be objective when in reality you just do the same as you accused others of, i.e only posting what you see when it shows what you want (cool/unsettled or downgrading of warmth)

conaidering how derided the gfs was, it seemed pertinent to point out that even the 'king' was sniffing out the same signal. Note the GFS parallel  isn't exactly flattering, again this evening! When the GFS continues to show the same evolution, as it did for about 7 consecutive runs.... the signal must be listening to. For days in the mod thread it was ignored. Hence the need to highlight its ideas. As I've said many times, I don't produce the models. I merely post what they're showing. I've posted the ecm more times than I care to remember over the years. Take emotion out of it, and settle down. The weather will do what the weather does. 

[stainesbloke]

55 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

The ECM has just ruined my weekend

Mine too, camping in Oxfordshire. Though latest GFS is much better. Too much see-sawing between the models, very confusing. I live in hope that we can scrape a decent weekend out of this!

[Frosty.]

Monday and Tuesday look warm and sunny and Wednesday looks very warm / hot & humid with thunderstorms..that's being glossed over which is a bit silly in my opinion.

[draztik]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Monday and Tuesday look warm and sunny and Wednesday looks very warm / hot & humid with thunderstorms..that's being glossed over which is a bit silly in my opinion.

Exactly right! A real mixed bag, as I said earlier.

[DAVID SNOW]

This is the model moans, ramps and banter thread right?

So if anyone wants to  moan, or ramp, about any model at any time frame, then this is the place for you,  right?.....

[blizzard81]

The world is run by money hungry specimens. The weather is one of the biggest money spinners or money killers going. What does that tell you all? 

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Monday and Tuesday look warm and sunny and Wednesday looks very warm / hot & humid with thunderstorms..that's being glossed over which is a bit silly in my opinion.

Probably because most people won't be enjoying it then to be honest. Understandably, many are more concerned about the weekend onwards. Anything before then is a bonus.

Personally, I've got a BBQ Saturday, Bristol Harbour Festival on Sunsay, then three days in north Devon. It's time the models started something that resembles July for that period. I'll accept nothing less than sunshine and warmth lol.

[stainesbloke]

Well there is some summery weather to enjoy during the first half of the coming week, with chances of a decent thundery outbreak occurring. After that though....just vile, those stupid lows that just sit there over the UK ruining days of summer, not good at all. Looks like my camping weekend will be cancelled, gutted. 

[northwestsnow]

41 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Well there is some summery weather to enjoy during the first half of the coming week, with chances of a decent thundery outbreak occurring. After that though....just vile, those stupid lows that just sit there over the UK ruining days of summer, not good at all. Looks like my camping weekend will be cancelled, gutted. 

Mine too mate im cancelling my anual leave which was to start next fri, i mean whats the point,what a crappy horrible climate.

Edited July 16, 2017 by northwestsnow

[stainesbloke]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mine too mate im cancelling my anual leave which was to start next fri, i mean whats the point, might save my hols until sept..

How long were you going to be off for? Doesn't look too bad after the weekend but nothing very good is showing either. Is Spain or Italy not an option? At least it's summery there! I make sure I get a couple of short trips to Spain in every summer now, worth every penny. Am so hacked off by that effing low for the weekend it's not true, the weekend I really need decent weather too. Typical UK crap. So glad we're emigrating next year! Fingers crossed for some better weather soon so you can take your leave.

[Frosty.]

Superb model output this morning, cool and unsettled weather is on the way, can't wait!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

gotta love how everyone is acting like that little green blob of snot is worse thing since 2012, Some even suggesting its worser.

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

How long were you going to be off for? Doesn't look too bad after the weekend but nothing very good is showing either. Is Spain or Italy not an option? At least it's summery there! I make sure I get a couple of short trips to Spain in every summer now, worth every penny. Am so hacked off by that effing low for the weekend it's not true, the weekend I really need decent weather too. Typical UK crap. So glad we're emigrating next year! Fingers crossed for some better weather soon so you can take your leave.

I'm hoping my reverse psychology works..normally when I talk up good weather it goes pear shaped so it should work the other way too.

Edited July 16, 2017 by Frosty.

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm hoping my reverse psychology works..normally when I talk up good weather it goes pear shaped so it should work the other way too.

Haha yes! Keep accentuating how awful it will be, should work.....

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha yes! Keep accentuating how awful it will be, should work.....

The Gfs 6z is beautiful, lots of cool unsettled weather for the whole uk..awesome

[stainesbloke]

37 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z is beautiful, lots of cool unsettled weather for the whole uk..awesome

Delightful, even. I can but only imagine how glorious the tempestuous gales will feel and sound, roaring through the trees. As the grey cloud rolls in and the saturating drizzle envelops the land, how refreshing it will be, driving all memories of stifling summer heat away into the distant past. We are indeed fortunate that we experience Autumn at any time of the year in these lands. 

Edited July 16, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Delightful, even. I can but only imagine how glorious the tempestuous gales will feel and sound, roaring through the trees. As the grey cloud rolls in and the saturating drizzle envelops the land, how refreshing it will be, driving all memories of stifling summer heat away into the distant past. We are indeed fortunate that we experience Autumn at any time of the year in these lands. 

Absolutely agree, we are so lucky in the uk to have lots of wind, rain and cool temps in summer and such mild wet winters! the current models are magnificent with a capital M!!

[stainesbloke]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Absolutely agree, we are so lucky in the uk to have lots of wind, rain and cool temps in summer and such mild wet winters! the current models are magnificent with a capital M!!

I have just finished perusing the latest GFS output and I must admit to having a mild faint and having to rest my quaking legs rather quickly. The moisture around my eyes can only have been caused by the overwhelming joy of seeing a beautiful trough residing over our fair Isles for not one or two days, but seven! An entire week of high summer saved from the terrible and life threatening risk of warm sunshine, Praise Be. How utterly selfish to yearn for warmth in summer when we experience it for so much of December. Forgive us!

Edited July 16, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I have just finished perusing the latest GFS output and I must admit to having a mild faint and having to rest my quaking legs rather quickly. The moisture around my eyes can only have been caused by the overwhelming joy of seeing a beautiful trough residing over our fair Isles for not one or two days, but seven! An entire week of high summer saved from the terrible and life threatening risk of warm sunshine, Praise Be. How utterly selfish to yearn for warmth in summer when we experience it for so much of December. Forgive us!

Oh I agree, heat is dangerous to health, melts roads and buckles railway tracks, give me cool unsettled green snot deconstructing troughs anytime..pure bliss and good for your health and well being.