Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Everyone is allowed to have their preferences. It annoys me in winter when people take glee in mild crap that we seem to suffer endlessly. However if I was to vent my frustration at said posters I'd probably get banned!

Truth is, some people will always find unappealing what you find appealing. 

Of course they are and I will always defend people's right to their own opinions. Doesn't mean I can't express my annoyance at all the whining and spite though!

[Captain Shortwave]

51 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd like a storm in summer, that'd be a start. I'll accept heat if it results in a good storm but we don't even see those that often anymore. As I said it's just bland bland and more bland and it has been for years now. I don't think anyone is celebrating that grim fact.

As much as 2012 was a pretty rubbish summer, there was a lot of home grown thunderstorms caused by low pressure being overhead for much of the time, oddly enough I don't think I have seen a summer storm which wasn't plume based since that summer, the lack of showers off westerlies has been the single thing I have noticed over the last few years. 

Oddly the ECM in my opinion is a more interest run and one which could offer better potential going forward for summer prospects. For a start we don't see north easterly winds and instead we get a plume quickly followed by high pressure building from the south which offers a better chance of advecting heat from the south more efficiently.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[knocker]

40 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Everyone is allowed to have their preferences. It annoys me in winter when people take glee in mild crap that we seem to suffer endlessly. However if I was to vent my frustration at said posters I'd probably get banned!

Truth is, some people will always find unappealing what you find appealing. 

Feel free to vent your anger CC. Then at least it would be one less fanatical cold ramper nutter to bore the pants off of us genuine enthusiasts. And Sidney.

Edited July 13, 2017 by knocker

[Azazel]

Yeah I have to say I really don't get it.

 

I have a bias towards heat and I love warm summery weather. I completely understand there are people who love the opposite (cold/snowy etc) and there are even people who like 13 degrees and slate-grey dross.

We get benign, dreary weather for like 80-90 percent of the year, so i don't understand why the gloom lovers whinge so much when we get a little window of summer. It's pretty selfish IMO.

[markyo]

56 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Of course they are and I will always defend people's right to their own opinions. Doesn't mean I can't express my annoyance at all the whining and spite though!

To be honest there's way to much moaning on here regarding to much heat,time many just maned up and stopped the crying......have you ever heard me moan,whine or cry that it's to hot!......now where are my pills

[simshady]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Feel free to vent your anger CC. Then at least it would be one less fanatical cold ramper nutter to bore the pants off of us genuine enthusiasts. And Sidney.

As opposed to someone who has a fictional squirrel as a friend?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, simshady said:

As opposed to someone who has a fictional squirrel as a friend?

on my I.L, but still can see quoted posts, function is a bit useless

[stainesbloke]

31 minutes ago, markyo said:

To be honest there's way to much moaning on here regarding to much heat,time many just maned up and stopped the crying......have you ever heard me moan,whine or cry that it's to hot!......now where are my pills

Haha, you do moan a lot about heat (understandably, considering your work) but in a good natured way and never spitefully, unlike one or two others. 

Anyway, despite a couple of dodgy runs for summer lovers, background signals still point to a decent spell of weather, so fingers crossed for that (I'm camping 21-23 July).

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Just when things were looking perfect with a Scandi ridge/Azores extension developing and along comes that little disturbance just in time to screw things. Thomas S on the beebs WFTWA will now have egg on his face for suggesting next weeks "26C Warm days and 10C chilly nights" if GFS comes true.  

[cheshire snow]

On the plus side the GFS 150 day outlook is showing snow on the 21st November 

C.S

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

 

Anyway, despite a couple of dodgy runs for summer lovers, background signals still point to a decent spell of weather, so fingers crossed for that (I'm camping 21-23 July).

Fingers crossed! I wouldn't mind a blip next thurs/fri as I'll be in London on business so oppressive heat wouldn't be welcome. As long as it's settled on the weekend though for a birthday BBQ I'm hosting! We could do with another ridge quickly following any thundery low midweek.

[stainesbloke]

35 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Fingers crossed! I wouldn't mind a blip next thurs/fri as I'll be in London on business so oppressive heat wouldn't be welcome. As long as it's settled on the weekend though for a birthday BBQ I'm hosting! We could do with another ridge quickly following any thundery low midweek.

The blip can come earlier, no bother if it's brief. Need a dry and warm weekend as I'm going camping, so a rapidly establishing ridge would be very helpful. Hope the BBQ goes well!

Edited July 13, 2017 by stainesbloke

[knocker]

7 hours ago, simshady said:

As opposed to someone who has a fictional squirrel as a friend?

A vile calumny. There is nothing fictional about Sidney...why only this morning he was actively hunting for rampers as well as ordinary nuts.

Edited July 13, 2017 by knocker

[markyo]

8 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha, you do moan a lot about heat (understandably, considering your work) but in a good natured way and never spitefully, unlike one or two others. 

Anyway, despite a couple of dodgy runs for summer lovers, background signals still point to a decent spell of weather, so fingers crossed for that (I'm camping 21-23 July).

Decent weather is certainly still very much on the cards,hope it stays good for the old camping trip!....Even dare i say it i enjoy the odd hot spell! But don't tell anybody i have a reputation as a wimp who can't take the heat to protect!!

[DAVID SNOW]

9 minutes ago, markyo said:

Decent weather is certainly still very much on the cards,hope it stays good for the old camping trip!....Even dare i say it i enjoy the odd hot spell! But don't tell anybody i have a reputation as a wimp who can't take the heat to protect!!

Much the same, the odd hot spell, then a good storm ( ).

Talk of protracted heat, with furnace like winds from a baking continent...... No thanks

[markyo]

To be very honest i do feel sorry for the heat lovers,i can understand how they enjoy it even if i don't and summer should be flipping summer,like winter should be winter. Oh how times have changed and climate change isn't happening,i don't think so. And before anybody starts to say otherwise my ex brother in law is a Prof at Hallam Uni in Sheffield,one of the top guy's in the country, i think he knows what he's taking about,slightly more trust in his view than any politicians....but that's not hard really.

Edited July 13, 2017 by markyo

[DAVID SNOW]

22 minutes ago, markyo said:

To be very honest i do feel sorry for the heat lovers,i can understand how they enjoy it even if i don't and summer should be flipping summer,like winter should be winter. Oh how times have changed and climate change isn't happening,i don't think so. And before anybody starts to say otherwise my ex brother in law is a Prof at Hallam Uni in Sheffield,one of the top guy's in the country, i think he knows what he's taking about,slightly more trust in his view than any politicians....but that's not hard really.

After reading all your post, surely there's no need to feel sorry for heat lovers?

LTA are on the up,   and if the experts (most) are right, then its only going to get warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Until the sun goes to sleep in the next few years.

Back on topic for me now.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

After reading all your post, surely there's no need to feel sorry for heat lovers?

LTA are on the up,   and if the experts (most) are right, then its only going to get warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Until the sun goes to sleep in the next few years.

Back on topic for me now.

Summers in the UK haven't warmed as much as on the continent. Most of our warming seems to have taken place primarily outside of summer, which is very annoying. If you're a four-season lover such as myself, then winters getting closer to summer temperature-wise is a nightmare scenario.

Edited July 13, 2017 by cheese

[Frost HoIIow]

Early next week looks great IMO - low 20's, sunshine. Nothing too hot.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[mushymanrob]

dont feel sorry for me..... its only weather, ive already had more 'hot' days this year then the past 4 summers combined. what was looking like the start of a lengthy hot spell might have gone pete tong.... so?... thats weather, its what it does, makes fools of everyone from GP to me..

[Evening thunder]

11 hours ago, cheese said:

Summers in the UK haven't warmed as much as on the continent. Most of our warming seems to have taken place primarily outside of summer, which is very annoying. If you're a four-season lover such as myself, then winters getting closer to summer temperature-wise is a nightmare scenario.

Indeed. If some of the long range charts etc coming out for Autumn/Winter are correct, the last thing we need is the good outlook for the 2nd half of summer to be taken away. I like some interesting weather and seasonality (warmth/thunderstorms in summer), cool summers just make our climate more samey. 

 

Anyway, it seems what can go wrong, will.. just like last winter. the GFS and GEM are unbelievable given what was showing before and even the GEFS mean is poor. 

In that respect, is too much weight given to longer range forecasting tools/signals etc? given that they can change, and smaller scale developments can and often do change the outlook for us. If I recall correctly the good spells down here this summer weren't really seen by them, and even dismissed by some (so we have had a bit of luck I guess).

I guess it won't matter if good stuff arrives afterwards like the ECM, but I shouldn't believe that because the next perfectly timed disturbance will arrive to remove any interesting outlook.

I get the feeling that the 'outside chance of more changeable and breezy conditions' in the Met Office outlook will be correct, leading on to August which has changed to more unsettled...

Hey ho, this may seem over negative but I thought something properly nice/interesting might happen at last.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Evening thunder

[summer blizzard]

Here are the stats on rainiest cities in the UK. Manchester sits 8th out of the cities listed:

London is the driest city in the UK, Cardiff the wettest with Glasgow not far behind.

 

Back to the models, still a very mixed outlook. A definite warm up particularly for the south out to the middle of next week. Hopefully after a more unsettled 2/3 days after Wednesday we will see a return to the Azores high.

I'm a little wary of this list living in Huddersfield myself, especially when you places like York as pretty dry and i think statistically Leeds is drier too. 

It's possible this is genuine and i'm just not noticing all those extra showers from westerlies or the enhanced rainfall rates but i'm more wary about how this was calculated. If for example they are basing this from Emley Moor then that is the better part of 200m above sea level anyway. 

[carinthian]

OK I am going to have a moan this morning. Why has Carol Kirkwood been entrenched in the bowels of Centre Court for the past 2 weeks?Wimbledon bores the pants off me and could not give a toss if it rains there. No mention in her forecasts this week for weather likely at The Great Yorkshire Show Ground in Harrogate or what really matters to many summer sports fans,the weather for the test at Trent Bridge. I want a real weather forecast presenter who covers the nations wider interests, the excellent Peter Avery comes to mind. She bores me so much,I even started watching the other lady weather presenter on ITV, Laura,I think is her name. She is good but gets little time to present a full nation forecast. That's all from grumpy!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

OK I am going to have a moan this morning. Why has Carol Kirkwood been entrenched in the bowels of Centre Court for the past 2 weeks?Wimbledon bores the pants off me and could not give a toss if it rains there. No mention in her forecasts this week for weather likely at The Great Yorkshire Show Ground in Harrogate or what really matters to many summer sports fans,the weather for the test at Trent Bridge. I want a real weather forecast presenter who covers the nations wider interests, the excellent Peter Avery comes to mind. She bores me so much,I even started watching the other lady weather presenter on ITV, Laura,I think is her name. She is good but gets little time to present a full nation forecast. That's all from grumpy!

Come on Federer!

[cheese]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm a little wary of this list living in Huddersfield myself, especially when you places like York as pretty dry and i think statistically Leeds is drier too. 

It's possible this is genuine and i'm just not noticing all those extra showers from westerlies or the enhanced rainfall rates but i'm more wary about how this was calculated. If for example they are basing this from Emley Moor then that is the better part of 200m above sea level anyway. 

Bradford receives 86cm of rain a year on average. Over 100 for Huddersfield does strike me as very high. 

I remember calculating the averages for the old Leeds Weather Centre, which closed in 2003. I can't remember the exact figures but the average rainfall there was broadly similar to Church Fenton (60cm).

Edited July 14, 2017 by cheese