Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Oh great. People are describing this warmth and sunshine as filth but that chart is vile filth of the worst kind at this time of the year. Plus we've had a nasty Atlantic storm already in June, do we need another one? Hopefully July and August will be red hot like 1995.

Won't verify like that, remember the gfs love affair with blowing low pressures out of proportion only 24 hours before to bring it right back 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Central Manchester is far too hot and humid feels like 32C. Just 5 mins in the chilled section at an air conditioned Tesco then outside it felt like an over heated sauna.

[knocker]

A quick look at the Camborne and Nottingham midday soundings may be of interest as they illustrate quite well the varied connection between the 850mb and surface temp.

The Nottingham sounding has an 850mb temp of 12.8C and surface 27.6C and as it has lapse rate very close to the DALR ( dry adiabatic lapse rate)so, allowing for surface heating adding 15C to the 850mb temp would not be very wide of the mark.

On the other hand Camborne has an 850mb temp of 16.2C and a surface of 25.0C due to certain amount of mixing in the boundary layer, possible sea breeze?, so you would be hard pushed to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the surface temp using just the 850mb. It would in fact be an educated guess.

I might add with dew point of 18C it's quite oppressive

Edited June 19, 2017 by knocker

[ILC]

45 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Oh great. People are describing this warmth and sunshine as filth but that chart is vile filth of the worst kind at this time of the year. Plus we've had a nasty Atlantic storm already in June, do we need another one? Hopefully July and August will be red hot like 1995.

Hopefully July and August won't be red hot, love sunshine but hate the humidity etc etc.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Bit early to say how unsettled it may get....but if it's anything like the 6z GFS we will see a return to summer wind and gales!



Yuck! No thanks!

noaa anomalies dont support such a deep low, well not of any duration, so IF there is one, itll be brief.

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

The usual whingers are out in force I see. It feels very hot here today (31C currently but only 40% humidity so could be much worse), but everyone seems quite happy. Cooler and fresher later this week won't be the end of the world IF it can stay mostly sunny and not windy. Otherwise, absolutely no thanks.

Who's whinging now? The irony is delicious.

[stainesbloke]

18 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Who's whinging now? The irony is delicious.

Not whinging at all, just commenting on some model output that was posted. Worst case scenario but can't be discounted. Anyway, a few more days of lovely heat to enjoy here 

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Not whinging at all, just commenting on some model output that was posted. Worst case scenario but can't be discounted. Anyway, a few more days of lovely heat to enjoy here 

You're welcome to it.

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

You're welcome to it.

Yep, I welcome it with open arms. And 3 months to go where decent hot weather is possible. A chilly 17C in your area this weekend though, more to your liking I suppose. 

[stainesbloke]

51 minutes ago, ILC said:

Hopefully July and August won't be red hot, love sunshine but hate the humidity etc etc.

Humidity isn't much fun when it's hot (but good for thunderstorms). This hot spell has seen humidity barely reach 50% here so it hasn't felt particularly sticky, just very warm. 

[Ice Man 85]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yep, I welcome it with open arms. And 3 months to go where decent hot weather is possible. A chilly 17C in your area this weekend though, more to your liking I suppose. 

17 is warm. Just shows how differently we feel the temperature. anything below 10c is chilly for me. Only 73 days to Autumn now.

[stainesbloke]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

17 is warm. Just shows how differently we feel the temperature. anything below 10c is chilly for me. Only 73 days to Autumn now.

17C is warm in March but not June. Depends on other factors too though, a temperature of say, 20C, feels pleasant if the sky is clear and there is little wind. But when cloudy and windy, it feels cold to me in summer with a need to wear a hoodie etc. 73 days, a very long time, especially if it's hot.....

[markyo]

What a vile day that's been,not one person i've spoken to bar one had anything good to say about the weather! Lugging 3 autoclaves up 3 flights of stairs in central London was not fun,myself and the other engineer looked like we'd be bloody swimming by the end!! For working or sleeping in this weather is horrendous,thank god for aircon 

[Polar Maritime]

I sat in the car today for 30min ish to cool of with the air-conditioning on, It was beautiful.

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

17C is warm in March but not June. Depends on other factors too though, a temperature of say, 20C, feels pleasant if the sky is clear and there is little wind. But when cloudy and windy, it feels cold to me in summer with a need to wear a hoodie etc. 73 days, a very long time, especially if it's hot.....

I'll remember that when the winter comes and most of you heat lovers have gone into hibernation.

[cheese]

Latest ARPEGE model shows 30C being reached as far north as here on Wednesday. Tuesday unfortunately looking very disappointing but that's been expected. Will just have to grin and bear it.

Edited June 19, 2017 by cheese

[ILC]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Humidity isn't much fun when it's hot (but good for thunderstorms). This hot spell has seen humidity barely reach 50% here so it hasn't felt particularly sticky, just very warm. 

Well I have felt sticky. The sooner it changes the better for me

[ILC]

42 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I'll remember that when the winter comes and most of you heat lovers have gone into hibernation.

If only we could have a proper winter with snow and cold instead of mild with rain

[I remember Atlantic 252]

28 minutes ago, cheese said:

Latest ARPEGE model shows 30C being reached as far north as here on Wednesday. Tuesday unfortunately looking very disappointing but that's been expected. Will just have to grin and bear it.

How are you going to feel when the Atlantic rolls in Thursday? Tuesday initially was breakdown day, but been looking warmer on every run, now looks like 26° here

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, ILC said:

If only we could have a proper winter with snow and cold instead of mild with rain

Ay, days have gone, unless you live up a mountain

[cheese]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

How are you going to feel when the Atlantic rolls in Thursday? Tuesday initially was breakdown day, but been looking warmer on every run, now looks like 26° here

Hm, Thursday still looks 21-22C which is okay. Friday will be the real shocker.

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

17 is warm. Just shows how differently we feel the temperature. anything below 10c is chilly for me. Only 73 days to Autumn now.

17^oC is the bare minimum where it feels warm enough to wear a short sleeves. Even then the conditions have to be right e.g. sun shining, light wind. Warm for me, where it feels comfortably warm even if it's cloudy or windy is around 23/24^oC.

[cheese]

17C feels warm earlier in the year, particularly in sun, but at this time of year it doesn't, and it would be very unusual to get 17C and sunshine in June - more likely to be cloudy.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I'll remember that when the winter comes and most of you heat lovers have gone into hibernation.

Think many heat lovers on here are also cold and snow lovers in winter. 

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Think many heat lovers on here are also cold and snow lovers in winter. 

Yep , Chase the heat in summer and the cold and snow in winter .