Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

Given the totally underwhelming interest in the MOD thread in summer there must be a strong case to close it down for the season and reopen it when the stone is rolled away from the cave entrance in November. Anything that crops up from time to time and is deemed to be of interest to the cognoscenti can surely be covered in the other threads

Edited May 16, 2017 by knocker

[Ravelin]

Not a models moan as such, but a weather moan.......

16C here at 8am, on the face of it that's good, but not when accompanied by almost 100% cloud cover and a strong breeze!

[stainesbloke]

Better than expected here today, the horrid grey grot is clearing rapidly allowing lovely warm sunshine, it's already 21C. Shame about the wind though, again.

[mushymanrob]

well its looking pretty poor now... models hinting at northern blocking, southerly tracking jet, azores low, scandinavian low, just the sort of synoptic pattern that robbed us in '85, 07, 08, 12 . im not 'writing off summer' as such, ..... but .... have we ever had a decent hot dry summer after a spell of northern blocking in late may?... possibly 83, which was cold and wet through spring until late june. i dunno, i just reckon that the signs arent good for high summer and as many of you know, im no fan of summer in september.

[plumehead]

Any long term predictions for east kent over the bank holiday weekend? I'm supposed to be camping!

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, plumehead said:

Any long term predictions for east kent over the bank holiday weekend? I'm supposed to be camping!

It's a long way off at the moment!  (meteorologically speaking at least).

What I would say is that at present there is nothing In the model data pointing to a scorcher - so the chances of a big heat wave are quite low at the moment. Equally nothing is pointing to it being way below average.

Something close to the seasonal average appears likely (say 18-21c), though finer details such as will it rain or will it be sunny are at least a week from being predictable!

[Thundery wintry showers]

On 16/05/2017 at 11:53, mushymanrob said:

well its looking pretty poor now... models hinting at northern blocking, southerly tracking jet, azores low, scandinavian low, just the sort of synoptic pattern that robbed us in '85, 07, 08, 12 . im not 'writing off summer' as such, ..... but .... have we ever had a decent hot dry summer after a spell of northern blocking in late may?... possibly 83, which was cold and wet through spring until late june. i dunno, i just reckon that the signs arent good for high summer and as many of you know, im no fan of summer in september.

1975 and 1984 spring to mind, and 1994 was another decent example in some areas of the country.

That said, I have a feeling that this year's June could well end up as another dull wet one with southerly tracking lows.

[mushymanrob]

well, things arent looking as poor as they previously did... might not get such a bad bank holiday after all.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

well, things arent looking as poor as they previously did... might not get such a bad bank holiday after all.

Yes, not quite so hideous for next week and some promising charts for after that, though I won't believe them until T24!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well, things arent looking as poor as they previously did... might not get such a bad bank holiday after all.

yes, looking much better, FI still though, I ignore k..........r, but usual doom posts of unsettled and cool in MOD, always posts charts of weather that the majority doesn't want

[cheshire snow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, looking much better, FI still though, I ignore k..........r, but usual doom posts of unsettled and cool in MOD, always posts charts of weather that the majority doesn't want

But always realistic 

keep up the good work I for one appreciate your input 

C.S

[Mokidugway]

Weather is what weather does keep up the good work. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

45 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

But always realistic 

keep up the good work I for one appreciate your input 

C.S

cheers! wonder where Frosty is?

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cheers! wonder where Frosty is?

Melted maybe ....

[Darren Bown]

Morning all! It's my wedding day next Saturday and am chuffed to pieces that it looks set to settle down next week. What are the current chances of the possible 'breakdown' at the back of next week? It can do what it likes on the Sunday haha!

[markyo]

15 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Morning all! It's my wedding day next Saturday and am chuffed to pieces that it looks set to settle down next week. What are the current chances of the possible 'breakdown' at the back of next week? It can do what it likes on the Sunday haha!

Not much chance,looking shall we say normal. oh good luck for the big day!

[Ice Man 85]

Models showing some real heat possible from wed/thurs of next week. I know a lot of you are waiting with baited breath, but for someone who doesn't deal well with heat at all, the prospect of 26c/16c is not going to be nice. I'm feeling physically sick just thinking about it...

Makes me with I could just crawl into a refrigerated box for the next 4 months. Or move to Lerwick...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On ‎19‎/‎05‎/‎2017 at 22:00, Mokidugway said:

Melted maybe ....

No he is Knockers! cool models Frosty/Knockers! summer coming

[davehsug]

I notice the charts on the weekly forecast showing large amounts of cloud for most of the coming week, until Thursday, yet very little mention of this from the forecasters, talking about "sunny spells". One of them is wrong!

[cheese]

37 minutes ago, davehsug said:

I notice the charts on the weekly forecast showing large amounts of cloud for most of the coming week, until Thursday, yet very little mention of this from the forecasters, talking about "sunny spells". One of them is wrong!

The automated BBC forecasts online also shows cloud. Perhaps they are overstating it - I hope so.

Edited May 21, 2017 by cheese

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, davehsug said:

I notice the charts on the weekly forecast showing large amounts of cloud for most of the coming week, until Thursday, yet very little mention of this from the forecasters, talking about "sunny spells". One of them is wrong!

Seen this a lot this year. The symbol for the day shows cloud yet when you click it shows sunny spells/sunny for most of the time points of that day.

[markyo]

First tough day for working in this year,amazing how even a small increase in external temps can make where i work very unpleasant. At least when coming out it wasn't to bad at all,23/24c is just about right,any hotter is just a pain,so hard to cool down. Hopefully this summer can stay like this,fingers crossed!

[DAVID SNOW]

30 or 40c could be achieved in the south this weekend, that must be great for Darlington.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

30 or 40c could be achieved in the south this weekend, that must be great for Darlington.

24° for my location, bbc suggest, GFS 22° max, wed to Sun

[cheese]

Why is this SizzlingHeat creature always rambling on about breakdowns? Why can't people just enjoy nice weather while it's here instead of being doom merchants all the time?