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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

indeed. we will be back to the boring  monotonous tripe soon enough,which some people seem to enjoy.

Next month could have some nice summer like weather which people crave,but i would not be so smug if i were them. Never trust that type of weather in may,it could be a distant memory by june/july. 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
58 minutes ago, sundog said:

 

Next month could have some nice summer like weather which people crave,but i would not be so smug if i were them. Never trust that type of weather in may,it could be a distant memory by june/july. 

Very valid point. Looking at past warm or sunny Mays do seem split which way it could go like 1909 vs 1989 with the latter going on to be one of the best summers on record. 

Edited by Summer 1976
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
17 hours ago, sundog said:

indeed. we will be back to the boring  monotonous tripe soon enough,which some people seem to enjoy.

Next month could have some nice summer like weather which people crave,but i would not be so smug if i were them. Never trust that type of weather in may,it could be a distant memory by june/july. 

More often than not it's gone the other way fortunately with unsettled Mays giving forth to much better Junes e.g. 2006 having a dry cool April, a very wet mild May then a fantastic June or even 2005 for that matter. Likewise, I always look at the end of April and start of May as a key period to watch for pattern changes as so often patterns come in two month chunks like the dry March/April 2007 which then turned very wet in May, or March/April 2003 which turned wet into May. A bit like how the 'return of the westerlies' often comes to the fore come late June, that is of course supposing it hasn't already been westerly which so often May and June seem to be nowadays. 

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34 minutes ago, MP-R said:

More often than not it's gone the other way fortunately with unsettled Mays giving forth to much better Junes e.g. 2006 having a dry cool April, a very wet mild May then a fantastic June or even 2005 for that matter. Likewise, I always look at the end of April and start of May as a key period to watch for pattern changes as so often patterns come in two month chunks like the dry March/April 2007 which then turned very wet in May, or March/April 2003 which turned wet into May. A bit like how the 'return of the westerlies' often comes to the fore come late June, that is of course supposing it hasn't already been westerly which so often May and June seem to be nowadays. 

I very much doubt this May will be westerly, looking very blocked and on the cool side.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
36 minutes ago, Eugene said:

I very much doubt this May will be westerly, looking very blocked and on the cool side.

Me too.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Blocked certainly doesn't mean cool. I swear some people just look at the isobars and automatically think that because the are coming from the East/Southeast, that it means cool or cold. There's been plenty of consistency with regards to average, or slightly above average temps next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
On 24/04/2017 at 14:46, markyo said:

I agree,they elderly do suffer during the cold in Winter,more so than in the Summer. This could be down to them being less active than the working population and therefore aren't as effected by 30c plus temps. Paradoxically this works against them in the Winter,less activity,less warmth. Personally i find the Summer by far the most expensive time, My Lecky bill trebles due to having to run the aircon in my bedroom. I must admit though i am very lucky as i don't feel the cold,heat yes..never have the house hotter than 16c ever.

When I made my previous posts I was feeling cold hence my expressing my detestation of the British climate but turns out I've caught flu (very rare for me).  However while we didn't have anything severe, just wintry showers, according to my energy meter my heating is costing as much as a winter day (around £2), and that's maintaining the temp of my living room at just 18C, the minimum recommended for someone of my age. 

It'll be interesting to experience the outdoor temp as I've been confined to base since Sunday night.  Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week.  Hopefully we won't have the same experience of the past few years with anything decent always arriving in 2-3 days time, but of course tomorrow never comes.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
23 hours ago, Eugene said:

I very much doubt this May will be westerly, looking very blocked and on the cool side.

I remember the good old days when this applied to 'winter'

2000 RIP winters

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I remember the good old days when this applied to 'winter'

2000 RIP winters

when were they?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Andover said:

They were poor, the nineties was slightly better but nothing compared to the mid-70s to the mid 80s !

yes, 70's even better and 80's, and earlier

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I remember the good old days when this applied to 'winter'

2000 RIP winters

This rubbish again. The last four years have been pretty poor but before that we had four out of five below average winters with some great snow events and some notably cold months. How anyone can say we don't get blocked winter months anymore is utterly wrong when we've only just had January 2010, December 2010 and March 2013 (spring but at 2.7C CET coldest for over a century) which were very cold indeed.

We're in a run of poor winters right now, but then again between December 1970 and December 1976 every winter month was above average. The same applies from Jan 1997 to Dec 2001.

We've always had runs of mild winters in the UK. The idea that a switch has been flicked and favourable winter blocking is gone with only 0.8C of warming since pre-industrial times is utter nonsense.

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
4 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

When I made my previous posts I was feeling cold hence my expressing my detestation of the British climate but turns out I've caught flu (very rare for me).  However while we didn't have anything severe, just wintry showers, according to my energy meter my heating is costing as much as a winter day (around £2), and that's maintaining the temp of my living room at just 18C, the minimum recommended for someone of my age. 

It'll be interesting to experience the outdoor temp as I've been confined to base since Sunday night.  Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week.  Hopefully we won't have the same experience of the past few years with anything decent always arriving in 2-3 days time, but of course tomorrow never comes.

Hope your felling better WP,fingers crossed next week will be more to your liking!!! Agree,2-3 days hopes are generated so many times just to be washed out,literally!! So much technology but the interpretation is always down to the frail human.  And can i just add i wouldn't put you in the elderly category,top end of middle age is more like it! 

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5 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

When I made my previous posts I was feeling cold hence my expressing my detestation of the British climate but turns out I've caught flu (very rare for me).  However while we didn't have anything severe, just wintry showers, according to my energy meter my heating is costing as much as a winter day (around £2), and that's maintaining the temp of my living room at just 18C, the minimum recommended for someone of my age. 

It'll be interesting to experience the outdoor temp as I've been confined to base since Sunday night.  Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week.  Hopefully we won't have the same experience of the past few years with anything decent always arriving in 2-3 days time, but of course tomorrow never comes.

Forecasts for mid 20's mid next week are frankly nonsense and very misleading, current model output certainly does not support such high temps next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

So the prospects of warm or very warm weather would develop, but alas we end up with heights building to our north/north west.

So the conditions will now be, cool, breezy, cloudy and in this case it still looks dry.

So in other words, pointless... :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Yep, I feel I need a moan now. 

All winter we can't get a good northerly or easterly, now we can't keep them away! Why couldn't we have had the nice warm charts that were showing? The models just do the opposite of all winter, downgrading warmth. Of course reserved for us, not the areas that benefited from the winter easterlies.

I thought it may turn out reasonable still, but GFS and ECM now shows us barely losing sub 0C uppers for one day next week before they're back from the ENE..lol. Probably lots of north sea cloud, and ECM lining up for another cold northerly at the end with little view of getting out of the pattern. Ugly runs.

Thought we might actually see an interesting swing from cold to warm... Nope! just more monotonous limited variation, at this rate there will be no seasonal change in temps through the whole of spring as March was very mild, April slightly above.

I feel the Met/BBC outlooks could be a bit off and people will be disappointed.

Hey ho, at least Iceland might get into the 20's.. lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
11 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Alot of hopecasting in the MOD thread for warmth next week from the usual winter doom merchants who always tell us cold never wins. :nonono:

It's May! cold will win now

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
23 hours ago, Eugene said:

Forecasts for mid 20's mid next week are frankly nonsense and very misleading, current model output certainly does not support such high temps next week.

You need to re-read my post correctly: "Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week".  Mid-week not mid-20s.

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
43 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

You need to re-read my post correctly: "Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week".  Mid-week not mid-20s.

If only folk read posts before saddling up and jumping on their high horses ...but what can you say:)

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18 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

You need to re-read my post correctly: "Meanwhile I hope the forecasts for next week is correct with possibly 20C mid-week".  Mid-week not mid-20s.

 

Whatever Pete, you're still gonna struggle big time to see 20C mid week anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I see the 'warm or very warm' went from the Met Office 6-15 day outlook yesterday, it did say for this coming Wednesday and Thursday when there's been no sign of that for days.

I hope they're looking at better models/data than me though because the outlook returns to 'rather warm temperatures' from next weekend (and above average rest of May), there does seem quite a chance of that not being the case given what we can see.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It's easy to see why the blocking charts are starting to appear we could be heading for the lowest NAO since November

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.91d1a04b63a5a9092162bedc31b4354b.gif

Yep..winter is coming:help:

th.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

Just had a look at the charts for the first time in about 4 weeks. Worse charts I think I've ever seen for may. Utterly attrocious. Not impressed whatsoever. Never get these charts during the winter but the moment summer begins to show it's hand, gob smacking charts. Horrific. Cold, cloudy and windy. Brilliant. It really has reinforced my decision to emigrate later this year. Cant deal with this crappy climate anymore. Goodbye UK, it's been emotional (and cold and miserable)

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
2 hours ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Just had a look at the charts for the first time in about 4 weeks. Worse charts I think I've ever seen for may. Utterly attrocious. Not impressed whatsoever. Never get these charts during the winter but the moment summer begins to show it's hand, gob smacking charts. Horrific. Cold, cloudy and windy. Brilliant. It really has reinforced my decision to emigrate later this year. Cant deal with this crappy climate anymore. Goodbye UK, it's been emotional (and cold and miserable)

Me too. I'm off to Europe next year (Prague). Mind you, it's still far too early to be writing off months ahead. I wouldn't be too bothered about a wet May as we could do with some rain here and there could be some decent convective episodes in any polar outbreaks. Hopefully lots of sunshine anyway and not too much depressing cloud/grey skies, with a warm up and the jet moving way north come June.

Edited by stainesbloke
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