Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

All models firming up on cold from next weekend

Yes, whiners thread, probably happen as well, going to be dismal, had enough rain here, time for proper warmth/high pressure now

[shotski]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, whiners thread, probably happen as well, going to be dismal, had enough rain here, time for proper warmth/high pressure now

Haha, keep dreaming mate 

[SnOwFeSt]

I just want it to be spring now. I am a keen allotmenteer and like to see things start growing at this time of year! Although late March 2013 was phenomenal, and deposited some of the biggest snow drifts I have ever seen in the UK (10-15ft drifts local to me, roads having to be 'cut out'), I much prefer spring warmth. 

There seems to be a pattern in recent years of milder winters, cooler springs - I'm wondering if it is a result of the record arctic warmth/ low sea ice cover that we are seeing prolonged cold into spring? May 2015 for example, was an appalling start to the growing season - all the veg just sat and sulked for the whole month, and didn't get going properly until June - a month wasted, and lower productivity as a result!

Edited March 4, 2017 by SnOwFeSt

[Jonathan Bollen]

Winter is over more or less. Mark my word. 

[Matthew.]

I have a feeling there'll still be a wintry episode before spring's out

[John Badrick]

30 minutes ago, Jonathan Bollen said:

Winter is over more or less. Mark my word. 

Yes probably because it's spring 

[March]

6 hours ago, Jonathan Bollen said:

Winter is over more or less. Mark my word. 

Congrats on finding a calendar!

[Wilxy]

Evening All.

Quick question is meteociel having problems with its site as sometimes but not all the time I get a timeout error when trying to view the models?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well, this my favourite chart of GFS 12Z!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looks like March is going to be a mild and wet month, is this a bad omen of things to come? Awful Summers always seem to follow a wet March

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Looks like March is going to be a mild and wet month, is this a bad omen of things to come? Awful Summers always seem to follow a wet March

Not sure where you got this from? If you look at the poor summers of late e.g. 2015, 2012, 2011, 2008, 2007 etc., all Marches were quite different: unsettled, very settled, largely settled, cool and unsettled, and changeable respectively.

[Froze were the Days]

2015 a poor summer?...not sure we've had a bad one since 2012 here in the south east, ok not 2006/1976 scorchers but 2013/14/15/16 have all had periods/spells of very warm weather here.

[March]

It was a lot nearer average in the SE. I had an outdoor job that summer and can remember quite a few nice warm sunny days. But much of the North West struggled from what I remember. 

Edit: I'm talking 2012! 2015 was average here, not bad. 2012 slightly below. 

Edited March 5, 2017 by March

[MP-R]

15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

2015 a poor summer?...not sure we've had a bad one since 2012 here in the south east, ok not 2006/1976 scorchers but 2013/14/15/16 have all had periods/spells of very warm weather here.

Perhaps I was a bit harsh re 2015. The main issue I had with 2015 was the cloud amounts and pesky breezes. It was indeed a very usable summer with some brief warm/hot interludes, just not great from a sun point of view here.

[Froze were the Days]

14 hours ago, MP-R said:

Perhaps I was a bit harsh re 2015. The main issue I had with 2015 was the cloud amounts and pesky breezes. It was indeed a very usable summer with some brief warm/hot interludes, just not great from a sun point of view here.

agreed with the breeze/wind issue of that spring/summer, remember playing numerous golf rounds and it was ALWAYS breezy but seemed to be warmish and fairly sunny (here). 2015 was the windiest year I believe since 1995.

[Barry Reynolds]

Well I've been enjoying working outside in the last two days of sunny-ish weather. Looking forward to the first 20c in hopefully not too distant future. Then some proper summer heat and storms hopefully. If I can't have snow, that's the next best thing!

[stainesbloke]

On 05/03/2017 at 23:15, MP-R said:

Perhaps I was a bit harsh re 2015. The main issue I had with 2015 was the cloud amounts and pesky breezes. It was indeed a very usable summer with some brief warm/hot interludes, just not great from a sun point of view here.

Increased cloud amounts and pesky breezes are more common in recent summers imho. 2015 was very breezy; I remember June that year being reasonably sunny and usable here but the cold and gusty NW wind just wouldn't quit. Hopefully some long, properly sunny and warm/hot spells this year. 

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Increased cloud amounts and pesky breezes are more common in recent summers imho. 2015 was very breezy; I remember June that year being reasonably sunny and usable here but the cold and gusty NW wind just wouldn't quit. Hopefully some long, properly sunny and warm/hot spells this year. 

summer 2015 was pretty good IMHO lots of +25c days from middle of June into the first week of August then it tailed off from there..best part of that summer was the lack of humidity.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

March of course is the first month we can realistically see the first 20C in the UK.  Looking at the model thread there signs of a warm second half of March.  Given that March came in like a lion with Doris it hopefully will be going out like a lamb.

[MP-R]

28 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Increased cloud amounts and pesky breezes are more common in recent summers imho. 2015 was very breezy; I remember June that year being reasonably sunny and usable here but the cold and gusty NW wind just wouldn't quit. Hopefully some long, properly sunny and warm/hot spells this year. 

Agreed! The breeze was most notable in June, following on from a breezy and times windy May. It tailed off a bit in July and August but then cloud was the issue by then. Last year certainly went a long way to address that problem. If not for June and early July's cloudiness here, I would have regarded last year as a good one. We even missed the silly rainfall totals some others got.

21 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

summer 2015 was pretty good IMHO lots of +25c days from middle of June into the first week of August then it tailed off from there..best part of that summer was the lack of humidity.

We certainly seemed to manage to miss sticky spells of weather, bar the brief hot snap at the start of July. Certainly wasn't that rosy here though. In fact the final third of July was notably cool with most places struggling to hit 20C let alone 25C... countrywide!

[Bristawl Si]

Temps in S Spain, Portugal and The Canaries are v warm for this time of year. I never bought into the cold Spring scenario for UK.

These warm temps to our South will act as a cushion, stopping any cold to our North making inroads imo. 

I'll confidently predict a very warm mid-Spring for the UK. Late March, into April i see temps hitting 20/21c in the South of UK.

[stainesbloke]

49 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

summer 2015 was pretty good IMHO lots of +25c days from middle of June into the first week of August then it tailed off from there..best part of that summer was the lack of humidity.

I don't remember much about summer 2015 apart from the cold wind for most of June, despite quite a few nice sunny days. July and August must have been fairly inoffensive but weren't they rather cloudy?

Edited March 8, 2017 by stainesbloke

[stainesbloke]

32 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Agreed! The breeze was most notable in June, following on from a breezy and times windy May. It tailed off a bit in July and August but then cloud was the issue by then. Last year certainly went a long way to address that problem. If not for June and early July's cloudiness here, I would have regarded last year as a good one. We even missed the silly rainfall totals some others got.

Last summer was one of two distinct halves here. The first was pretty grim; despite a couple of warm days at the beginning of June and some some convective interest during that month, to me it felt like it just rained all the time and was often cloudy. Then after nearly 3 weeks of dull nothingness in July our fortunes dramatically improved and the rest of the summer was generally much better, with the nicest August here for some years (not difficult!). Interested to see what this year will bring.

[Penrith Snow]

8 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Last summer was one of two distinct halves here. The first was pretty grim; despite a couple of warm days at the beginning of June and some some convective interest during that month, to me it felt like it just rained all the time and was often cloudy. Then after nearly 3 weeks of dull nothingness in July our fortunes dramatically improved and the rest of the summer was generally much better, with the nicest August here for some years (not difficult!). Interested to see what this year will bring.

In Cumbria it was the exact t opposite! may and June were warm and sunny! July and August miserable cloudy and cool.

What a difference a few hundred miles makes

Andy

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Temps in S Spain, Portugal and The Canaries are v warm for this time of year. I never bought into the cold Spring scenario for UK.

These warm temps to our South will act as a cushion, stopping any cold to our North making inroads imo. 

I'll confidently predict a very warm mid-Spring for the UK. Late March, into April i see temps hitting 20/21c in the South of UK.

I don't see what temperatures got to do with it. It's the pressure patterns that determine what airmass you have and the circumstances that lead to those pressure patterns. not the temperatures.