Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

A sunny, 14C afternoon - lovely. I'll take this if we can't get cold and snow.

[snowray]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

no doubt gone tits up

The worry now is that the effects of the SSW might turn up when we don't want them, so too late and just give us a cold spring. 

 

 But if the models can't agree at T144, what chance do we have at T384? Zero!

Edited February 18, 2017 by snowray

[overcast]

I was trying to come up with a (polite) word to sum up these last several 'winters'...

I settled on  'Arnia' - the land of perpetual Autumn. In Arnia the evil Queen ensures that any snow is limited to the highest hills or at best a few flakes that are never allowed to settle.

Also in Arnia, as I noticed today, the leaves are still fluttering around in February as if were still November.

Will Aslan ever come to rescue us?

[ArHu3]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

Thats true...What Winter is over?

Most of us never had a winter, unless you call a few frosts a winter? I think that the Dec-Feb CET figures will confirm this ever warming trend.

for the netherlands 0.6 C below average for the nov-jan (-1.3, +1, -1.5) period, not very cold but certainly not warm

Edited February 18, 2017 by ArHu3

[snowray]

44 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

for the netherlands 0.6 C below average for the nov-jan (-1.3, +1, -1.5) period, not very cold but certainly not warm

Yes, I would think that much of continental Europe will have had a colder winter than average, but I bet that it will be the British Isles that will stand out as being the only place in Europe that has been well above average. November is not a winter month of course, but both October and November were in fact cold in the UK.

[Evening thunder]

 

12 hours ago, More Snow said:

Well thats 4 months of my life i wont get back... and all to show for it is a couple of sugar dustings... way back in October the up coming winter held so much promise.. background signals the way things were looking we were in for one hell of a winter, what have we had? a total borefest... yes some magical output for the end of December and into Jan... never really worked out apart from a few dustings... then  the 1947 feb was setting up and the models were at one stage showing us it could happen but again another fail... what have we learned from this?? probably nothing....will we come back in another 6 months yes for sure we will... see you all again in October when we start this crazy thing called winter again....guys and girls give it up its over finished...

It seems we've been unlucky and had a lot of good charts in FI that vanish, but I think the nature of the MOD thread has been part of the problem for some. Seems to have been worse this year IMO.  Sometimes even talk of northerlies and easterlies when even the best charts showed the closest an easterly getting was Denmark! but the post(s) didn't specifically say that. No wonder some get too high expectations unless they look at/decide on the charts themselves.

Also given the difficulty of forecasting past about a week, when is there ever not some degree of 'potential'?

[Spikey M]

The winter has been colder than average in the South East, no? We had the continental air timidly scratching past us (but delivering nothing) for what felt like an age.

[Richard Taylor]

I see on the MT there is yet another mention of an E'ly in FI. Don't hang your hat on it! Even if one turns up it will likely be a very tame affair. Besides a N'ly delivers more for my area than an E'ly.... & long-lived potent N'lies are becoming even rarer!

[ArHu3]

12 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes, I would think that much of continental Europe will have had a colder winter than average, but I bet that it will be the British Isles that will stand out as being the only place in Europe that has been well above average. November is not a winter month of course, but both October and November were in fact cold in the UK.

I know but the dutch meteorological institute uses to the nov 1st-march 31st time frame to collect winterstatistics, like hellmann cold number (currently at 36, 40-100 is the normal range)

[78/79]

Should like to have seen some snow, but the fact that it's been  drier than average has been a bonus in my book. Cold / dry or warm / dry  I'll take either , just as long as it's not poxy rain.

[cheese]

15 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes, I would think that much of continental Europe will have had a colder winter than average, but I bet that it will be the British Isles that will stand out as being the only place in Europe that has been well above average. November is not a winter month of course, but both October and November were in fact cold in the UK.

Will probably be above average in Scandinavia. Temperatures were around 10-15C above average in Northern Scandinavia recently.

Edited February 19, 2017 by cheese

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Ive noticed all the papers are getting over excited at next weeks mild blip - using pictures of people lay on the grass sunbathing half naked with the word "hotter" in their headlines, seriously do they think its mid-July?? And some of the facebook comments make me LOL , all the sheep are commenting "wow, its barbecues all round cant wait" 

[snowray]

46 minutes ago, cheese said:

Will probably be above average in Scandinavia. Temperatures were around 10-15C above average in Northern Scandinavia recently.

Yes you may well be right there, I think that like us they had a colder Oct/Nov. Be interesting to see the winter stats when they come out.

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Ive noticed all the papers are getting over excited at next weeks mild blip - using pictures of people lay on the grass sunbathing half naked with the word "hotter" in their headlines, seriously do they think its mid-July?? And some of the facebook comments make me LOL , all the sheep are commenting "wow, its barbecues all round cant wait" 

Public as one dimensional as the tabloid trash they follow ... mild can only mean BBQ, binge boozing and burgers of dubious nutritional quality.

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Public as one dimensional as the tabloid trash they follow ... mild can only mean BBQ, binge boozing and burgers of dubious nutritional quality.

10/10

[10 Days Away]

Off to Iceland on Thursday and looking at the forecast should see some decent snow at last.

Downside is the Northern Lights probably won't be visible.

Edited February 19, 2017 by TN26

[Spurry]

Models predicting another cold North/Northeasterly/easterly spell in about 10 days or so...we shall see.

 

[Snipper]

I am sure the models and the so called coldies could see a cold snap in a bonfire. 

Let us now get on with spring.

 

[Eugene]

28 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I am sure the models and the so called coldies could see a cold snap in a bonfire. 

Let us now get on with spring.

 

You are far more likely to see winter synoptics in April than in mid winter, Spring in the UK isn't one long warm season, hopefully some cold Springs will stop this notion that Spring is that warm, it really isn't, just the past 30 years run of above average Spring's has skewed people's perceptions, most people don't go looking for cold in August so why should they warmth in February.

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Eugene said:

You are far more likely to see winter synoptics in April than in mid winter, Spring in the UK isn't one long warm season, hopefully some cold Springs will stop this notion that Spring is that warm, it really isn't, just the past 30 years run of above average Spring's has skewed people's perceptions, most people don't go looking for cold in August so why should they warmth in February.

I am well aware when the supposed seasons are and when they are likely to occur. Seen enough of them. 

I do not consider my perceptions skewed. 

If we have snow from now on it will not remain deep crisp and even. It will quickly revert to a cold wet mess. Sun getting stronger and day's longer  

My comment was I was looking forward to spring so we get some warm weather and for no other reason the heating can go off. I am also looking forward to the summer but appreciate it won't turn up next week either. 

[ArHu3]

2 hours ago, Eugene said:

You are far more likely to see winter synoptics in April than in mid winter, Spring in the UK isn't one long warm season, hopefully some cold Springs will stop this notion that Spring is that warm, it really isn't, just the past 30 years run of above average Spring's has skewed people's perceptions, most people don't go looking for cold in August so why should they warmth in February.

For de Bilt Netherlands at least, every single day in February has seen temperatures beating the coldest recorded August day (the 13th 1908, 3.4 minimum 13.0 maximum), February can have much higher temperatures than either January or December

[Nath]

I could begrudgingly accept less snow and cold in winter due to "global warming", but it doesnt give the increase in storms or nice heat-waves during the summer.

Its like the UK weather is actually cursed, trying to deliver autumn weather all year round.

Moan over, just my observations over the last 5-10 years.

 

Back in the 70s 80s 90s we had decent winters and decent summer heat/storms, where and why has it all stopped?

 

 

[mb018538]

I think it's mainly perception Nath - we have still had very notable spells of weather in recent years and since the 2000s-

 (Warmest October ever 2001, Summer of 2003, hottest July ever 2006, Warmest April ever 2007, Jan 2010 cold spell, Nov 2010 snowy spell, Dec 2010 -0.7 CET coldest since 1890 and coldest month since 1986, Jan 2011 cold until mid month, April 2011 warmest April on record again, March 2012 5th warmest on record,  March 2013 coldest since 1883, July 2013 6th hottest ever, April 2014 3rd warmest ever, Dec 2015 warmest on record by a mile, August 2016 warm, September 2016 second warmest since 1910 with 34.4c max the latest in the year for the highest temperature since 1926 and hottest September day for 105 years.

So plenty has happened! I think people just think that when they were young every winter was cold and snowy, and every summer was hot and dry. Sadly this isn't the case!  It's undeniable that mild has dominated, but there has been some colder stuff too.....perhaps not as much as we'd like, but it has been there.

[cheeky_monkey]

16 hours ago, Nath said:

I could begrudgingly accept less snow and cold in winter due to "global warming", but it doesnt give the increase in storms or nice heat-waves during the summer.

Its like the UK weather is actually cursed, trying to deliver autumn weather all year round.

Moan over, just my observations over the last 5-10 years.

 

Back in the 70s 80s 90s we had decent winters and decent summer heat/storms, where and why has it all stopped?

 

 

outside of 75 & 76 the summers of the 1970s were poor..and dont forget 85,86,87 & 88 four awful summers in a row and apart from Feb 91 (which was the last potent easterly) the 90s winters were very hit and miss not particularly great

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

outside of 75 & 76 the summers of the 1970s were poor..and dont forget 85,86,87 & 88 four awful summers in a row and apart from Feb 91 (which was the last potent easterly) the 90s winters were very hit and miss not particularly great

And to add - most of the 70s Winters were mild and wet down here, bar Feb 78 and, of course, Winter 78/79. In the 90s only '91 and '95 (i think) were any good for cold and snow.

Summers? Seemed warmer and drier back then, but maybe that is selective memory syndrome on my part