Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[MP-R]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Few tweaks and we could be looking at a Feb '98 setup, not the only GFS/ECM run to show it, not a 'complaint' though, as warm and dry will do great

If our luck is going to be so bad yet again this winter with high pressure in the wrong place, then let's at least have a Feb 98 scenario with some early spring sunshine. Will feel totally different to the last few days.

[Methuselah]

Bring it on! After the Februarys  of '69 and '79, '98 was by far the next best.

[cheese]

Feb 1998 in Leeds had an average high of 11.6C, an average low of 6.0C, 8.1mm of rain and just 6 days with highs below 10C. In fact, there were nearly more nights with lows above 10C than days with highs below 10C. 

Really just as exceptional as the likes of December 2010 but for the opposite reasons, and unlike Dec 2015 was fairly pleasant. Seems odd to get such a mild month without rain and/or cloud.

Edited February 12, 2017 by cheese

[Snowyowl9]

4 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

No not to bad..

 

Unforgettable that was the biggest drifts and deepest snow on record for late march into april.

That reminds me of January 1982 that second pic.

Edited February 12, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[Spikey M]

19 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Well 31 years ago just a little earlier in the month gave the same wind direction with already 6 inches snowcover but this day gave drizzle ,but sleety snow grains also next day,turning more to snow as the days went on with blizzards.

 

If our Eastely had come 2 weeks earlier we'd have seen similar. Unfortunately the real cold has just retreated too far east for this set up to tap into it.

[snowfish1]

Flame torch azuroslug creeping back in someone salt it..... Bet that sticks around unwelcome Synoptics always seem to. I for one don't mind cold and sunny conditions and won't rule out another flip back to cold before March is out 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Feb '98, what a great month. Dry, sunny and mild. Way better than cold rain. Bring it on,

Yes, cannot understand anyone liking drizzle 1° and howling wind, now this is better for next Sunday! if we can't have snow, lets have it decent

Edited February 12, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[smilersnow]

I knew as soon as John Hammond did his #mjo tweet I knew it was over. John is great but I've noticed as soon as he goes public thats it. My obsession with cold and snow is getting out of control lol. I'd rather not be teased and let down. I'd rather accept it's over and move on. I think I realised I needed to get a grip when today it was sleeting here in Leeds  then I said to myself... if I walk to shop and when I get out of the shop and its snowing then we will have one more chance before the end of Feb.  BTW it was still sleeting. Note to self get a grip and more to life! .... hey who am I kidding! To add I think deep down I can't let go is because I still have a feeling we are still on to something. I think it will all fall in to place last minute. One saving grace if it doesn't come off then i will know that was last chance saloon. Close the book and wait till next winter. 

Edited February 12, 2017 by smilersnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM on board too, bring on Spring!

[ribster]

Well I see the tweet thread has exposed the real reason for posting them in the model thread. Interest in posting them seems to have dropped off somewhat, didn't see that coming  

[Day 10]

When does Winter start?

[Summer Sun]

37 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

When does Winter start?

Probably in March or April

[Nath]

Considering such extensive blocking has been around all winter, and a very quiet Atlantic, this has got to literally be the worst winter ever given the potential there was for epic cold spells.

[snowfish1]

4 hours ago, smilersnow said:

I knew as soon as John Hammond did his #mjo tweet I knew it was over. John is great but I've noticed as soon as he goes public thats it. My obsession with cold and snow is getting out of control lol. I'd rather not be teased and let down. I'd rather accept it's over and move on. I think I realised I needed to get a grip when today it was sleeting here in Leeds  then I said to myself... if I walk to shop and when I get out of the shop and its snowing then we will have one more chance before the end of Feb.  BTW it was still sleeting. Note to self get a grip and more to life! .... hey who am I kidding! To add I think deep down I can't let go is because I still have a feeling we are still on to something. I think it will all fall in to place last minute. One saving grace if it doesn't come off then i will know that was last chance saloon. Close the book and wait till next winter. 

John (aren't I a smarm git)  Hammond is a mild damper and loves mild in truth it's been said before. I can't stand the azuroslug  and like u hope we have a good crack at snow before March is out 

Edited February 12, 2017 by snowfish1

[abruzzi spur]

21 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

John (aren't I a smarm git)  Hammond is a mild damper and loves mild in truth it's been said before. I can't stand the azuroslug  and like u hope we have a good crack at snow before March is out 

Not really worth asking these questions but, hey ho, just for the fun of it:

1.    what is a 'smarm' git?

2.   what is a 'mild damper'?

3.   evidence please for 'loves mild in truth it's been said before'

Could you please let us know your scientific experience and qualifications so we can properly judge your criticisms.

Ta very much.

[DAVID SNOW]

So its "Snow people" now, and not snowmen,.................... And people still wonder, how could brexit and trump ever have happened ..lol.

[Severe Blizzard]

52 minutes ago, Nath said:

Considering such extensive blocking has been around all winter, and a very quiet Atlantic, this has got to literally be the worst winter ever given the potential there was for epic cold spells.

We had similar pathetic jokes for winters in 1991/1992 and especially 2005/2006.

1991/1992 was dominated by anticyclones near to or over the U.K. with reasonable levels of sunshine and heavy frosts in mid-December. 
2005/2006 was IMO the most vile winter of the decade in the south with similar issues of this winter and especially in February. There was a considerable potential with very cold weather in Europe which never got sufficiently west to benefit the U.K. Epic failures featured regularly. Indeed, more snow fell in the following 'very mild' winter which was mostly Atlantic dominated except for a brief period in late January & early February. 2006 went on to yield a long tedious unpleasant cold cloudy and snowless spell in March - a real kick in the teeth after the horrid February. Hope that is not going to happen this time as a nice dry and sunny March would be preferred over this current stuff. 

 

[snowfish1]

9 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

Not really worth asking these questions but, hey ho, just for the fun of it:

1.    what is a 'smarm' git?

2.   what is a 'mild damper'?

3.   evidence please for 'loves mild in truth it's been said before'

Could you please let us know your scientific experience and qualifications so we can properly judge your criticisms.

Ta very much.

 

Edited February 13, 2017 by snowfish1

[I remember Atlantic 252]

decent start to holiday week! none of these vile winds

[snowfish1]

9 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

Not really worth asking these questions but, hey ho, just for the fun of it:

1.    what is a 'smarm' git?

2.   what is a 'mild damper'?

3.   evidence please for 'loves mild in truth it's been said before'

Could you please let us know your scientific experience and qualifications so we can properly judge your criticisms.

Ta very much.

Er....nah. Damn typos 

[TEITS]

22 hours ago, cheese said:

23 March 2013.

The actual synoptics were chalk and cheese compared to what we just experienced.

A cold SE,ly sourced from the continent. Also Leeds recorded -3C that day but much of N England was around 0C.

[Azazel]

I really do feel sorry for the cold/snow lovers out there.

I'm not a fan of the cold at all, but i would never begrudge cold fans a decent winter and they've been let down for the third year running:(

 

Unfortunately I feel the correct synoptics for cold will arrive at the wrong time of year (April/May) when it's not conducive to proper cold and will spoil spring which would suck

[Stationary Front]

It's now 4 years on the trot

[cheese]

6 hours ago, TEITS said:

The actual synoptics were chalk and cheese compared to what we just experienced.

A cold SE,ly sourced from the continent. Also Leeds recorded -3C that day but much of N England was around 0C.

Hm, I was looking on Meteociel and the wind direction still seemed to pass over a fairly large stretch of sea, but not a straight easterly no. 

Maybe February 2005 is a better example - that was a straight easterly with 850Ts of -8/-10C and widespread snowfall, which I remember well. A good few inches in fact, even down south.

Edited February 13, 2017 by cheese

[Barmada_Casten]

Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual.

I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. 

• The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare.
• Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. 
• Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate.
• Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential.
• I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise.
• Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.#
• If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable.

If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this....

*Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands.

Barmada Casten