Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Snowyowl9]

My reaction to this if this happened 30 years ago would be this.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

My reaction to this if this happened 30 years ago would be this.

 

I think somehow it would be a lot snowier than this!

[Spikey M]

It eventually stopped snowing here at around 1pm. It'd a shame it didn't settle as it was heavy at times and would have left at least a few cm's.

[January Snowstorm]

We learn something every winter in my opinion. Here goes,

1) It's becoming quite likely that 2010 was indeed a blip rather than a possible new trend. We can safely say this now after 6 years of very mild winters.

2) Global warming continues unabated. Year after year the earth is warming faster than any scientist had predicted.

3) The scenario that this might disrupt the jet stream remains quite possible. Of course the poles are warming so the effect on our own climate is not clear.

4) There's a dramatic shift away from Easterly type conditions both Winter and Summer. Greece/Turkey seems to benefit from any cold in Winter.

5) Long range forecasts are dead. For the first time in a while even the met were clueless. It's a jovial exercise.

6) The super models have made zero progress over the last 20 years. Since Netweather began and back to snow watch days we still can't predict beyond a week.

I suppose an example of Science trying to understand the super natural and falling flat on its face. Bring on Spring now because Winter '16 you've bored us to tears and good riddance!!

[Snowyowl9]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I think somehow it would be a lot snowier than this!

Well 31 years ago just a little earlier in the month gave the same wind direction with already 6 inches snowcover but this day gave drizzle ,but sleety snow grains also next day,turning more to snow as the days went on with blizzards.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Well 31 years ago just a little earlier in the month gave the same wind direction with already 6 inches snowcover but this day gave drizzle ,but sleety snow grains also next day,turning more to snow as the days went on with blizzards.

 

So typical of 31 years ago, not that I remember it, I remember 90's, they were good

[Don]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

So typical of 31 years ago, not that I remember it, I remember 90's, they were good

They were not a patch on the mid 1980's.  I found the cold winters of 1995/96 and 1996/97 (1st half) very frustrating indeed, seeing little in the way of snow IMBY.  The cold winters between 2008 and 2013, however were a different story altogether I'm pleased to say!  

Edited February 11, 2017 by Don

[I remember Atlantic 252]

47 minutes ago, Don said:

They were not a patch on the mid 1980's.  I found the cold winters of 1995/96 and 1996/97 (1st half) very frustrating indeed, seeing little in the way of snow IMBY.  The cold winters between 2008 and 2013, however were a different story altogether I'm pleased to say!  

Those 2 were good winters here, nothing on warm 2017 Feb with easterlies, only producing rain above 300m asl

[Bradowl]

According to bbc long range forecast Atlantic is unlikely to fire up with a blocked pattern  to continue right up to end of month. 

We could possibly see something more wintry at end of month or even start of March. 

Even though sun is stronger March can still give us some massive snowfalls. 

[Nath]

2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Well 31 years ago just a little earlier in the month gave the same wind direction with already 6 inches snowcover but this day gave drizzle ,but sleety snow grains also next day,turning more to snow as the days went on with blizzards.

 

I remember that day well,   Started snowing hard mid morning.  School decided to close at lunch and by then the buses and tubes had all stopped an even main roads were blocked.  Had to walk home 5 miles from Hendon to Kilburn, loved every minute!!  That was a good day in my life seeing the insane heavy snow fall all day leaving over a foot easily and bitterly cold.  And stuck around for days after too!  The 1980s were such a great decade for cold and snow!!

[Snowyowl9]

4 minutes ago, Nath said:

I remember that day well,   Started snowing hard mid morning.  School decided to close at lunch and by then the buses and tubes had all stopped an even main roads were blocked.  Had to walk home 5 miles from Hendon to Kilburn, loved every minute!!  That was a good day in my life seeing the insane heavy snow fall all day leaving over a foot easily and bitterly cold.  And stuck around for days after too!  The 1980s were such a great decade for cold and snow!!

The great thing about cold spell I havn`t seen since was the freezing drizzle had froze the top layer of the 6inches of snow from late january,so any heavier snow grains falling which there was a lot off(today brought a heavier patch) on top so just drifted off so easily in those strong to gale force winds and up in the field you couldn't see a thing blizzards at times superb times.

[TEITS]

What many don't realise about this current cold spell is the -10C uppers that spread from the E came from the NE from the N Sea and not off the continent. As a result the longer set fetch, cloud cover, moisture resulted in higher temps, dewpoints. This was especially true for those living directly on the coast.

This cold spell has been exactly what I thought would occur. If you want sub zero max temps in Feb then you really need an E,ly which has the cold pool off the continent. I also find the magical upper temp that im looking for is from -13C and below.

The problem is some people post charts on the model thread (precip type) which to some may suggest widespread snow. However if you look into the details the snowfall isn't anywhere near as widespread as the charts suggest. Also some mistake discussing a model run as a forecast!

[Evening thunder]

I wonder what it is about this winter? Everything just returns to the default Euro/Bartlett high or if lucky some UK-ish high pressure. Could have done much better just predicting that no matter what the models showed!

The 00z GFS shows all that cold getting bottled up near Iceland, you'd think at some point we'd at least get a toppler but nope there's a perfect wall of a Euroslug and systems running over the top to prevent anything..

I'm looking forward to Spring but not sure whether I want spring like temps next week or not. 13C+ may feel nice but knowing our climate it might be 13C until May.

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

What many don't realise about this current cold spell is the -10C uppers that spread from the E came from the NE from the N Sea and not off the continent. As a result the longer set fetch, cloud cover, moisture resulted in higher temps, dewpoints. This was especially true for those living directly on the coast.

This cold spell has been exactly what I thought would occur. If you want sub zero max temps in Feb then you really need an E,ly which has the cold pool off the continent. I also find the magical upper temp that im looking for is from -13C and below.

The problem is some people post charts on the model thread (precip type) which to some may suggest widespread snow. However if you look into the details the snowfall isn't anywhere near as widespread as the charts suggest. Also some mistake discussing a model run as a forecast!

Not sure why'd think that. We had 850hpa temps of -4C in late March with an easterly wind but that was enough to have an ice day for much of the country with heavy snow in the North and Midlands. 

[Snowyowl9]

20 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I think somehow it would be a lot snowier than this!

Not from late 1987 to December 1990 it wasn`t,that was the start of a very poor run of the end the the great winters.

That was such an annoying period seemed to last so long then as time went slower.

Edited February 12, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[Snipper]

22 hours ago, swipe said:

A quick note to all the cold lovers, please spare a thought for the people without central heating who can't afford to heat their homes. I'm currently sitting in my living room, huddled around a halogen heater and it's 8.5C. I woke up to 6.3C in my bedroom this morning. When a cold spell lasts a few days the indoor temperature drops gradually each day. I can even see my breath indoors today. The reason I come on this forum is to pray in hope that each of these cold model runs never come to fruition. So the best outcome for me is to see lots of toys being hurled out of prams  So please bear in mind that when things don't go to plan, it's not all bad.

Well said. 

Fortunately I can just about keep my head above our heating costs. My only regret is I ordered a few more sacks of coal because of the cold forecasts that I am now unlikely to need this year. Fortunately coal doesn't go off. 

Must admit I love to see snow tumbling down for a short while. 

[TEITS]

48 minutes ago, cheese said:

Not sure why'd think that. We had 850hpa temps of -4C in late March with an easterly wind but that was enough to have an ice day for much of the country with heavy snow in the North and Midlands.

Can you tell me the exact date and I shall have a look.

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

 

The problem is some people post charts on the model thread (precip type) which to some may suggest widespread snow. However if you look into the details the snowfall isn't anywhere near as widespread as the charts suggest. Also some mistake discussing a model run as a forecast!

the opposite is also possible, the charts did not promise any snow until like 24h before hand and this morning (in the dutch coastal region):

Edited February 12, 2017 by ArHu3

[cheese]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Can you tell me the exact date and I shall have a look.

23 March 2013.

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

23 March 2013.

Drifts up to the bedroom window sills here during that cold spell.

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

What many don't realise about this current cold spell is the -10C uppers that spread from the E came from the NE from the N Sea and not off the continent. As a result the longer set fetch, cloud cover, moisture resulted in higher temps, dewpoints. This was especially true for those living directly on the coast.

This cold spell has been exactly what I thought would occur. If you want sub zero max temps in Feb then you really need an E,ly which has the cold pool off the continent. I also find the magical upper temp that im looking for is from -13C and below.

The problem is some people post charts on the model thread (precip type) which to some may suggest widespread snow. However if you look into the details the snowfall isn't anywhere near as widespread as the charts suggest. Also some mistake discussing a model run as a forecast!

Thanks for this TEITS I am still learning and this post I found very informative especially the first paragraph  and explains why we just missed out on the jackpot and got 3 cherries instead. I was discussing this with my father yesterday and he was adamant that if this was 20 years ago this event would have been epic. This post explains that probably is not the case.

Thanks again 

Mark

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Drifts up to the bedroom window sills here during that cold spell.

Wasn't bad really.......

 

[Polar Maritime]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Wasn't bad really.......

 

No not to bad..

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Few tweaks and we could be looking at a Feb '98 setup, not the only GFS/ECM run to show it, not a 'complaint' though, as warm and dry will do great

[cheese]

Feb '98, what a great month. Dry, sunny and mild. Way better than cold rain. Bring it on,

Edited February 12, 2017 by cheese