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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So thats another Winter down the pan without a +3 proper snowy cold spell.

So near and yet so far.

Well next Winter will be -qbo, solar minimum approaching. What can possibly go wrong.

it is doomed to fail once again as soon as the so called experts mention cold its jinxed well next week will be time for the seed trays to appear again for another season 

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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex
4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The Atlantic looks dead on the ECM. Nothing really moving around much, not seen such a lack of energy in a long time. 

Which begs the question - where the hell is it?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Ironically the Atlantic being dead is doing us no favours and leaves us in a severely stagnant pattern, just one of those winters!

i say one of those winters but as I'm 22 this is pretty much the norm!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

Which begs the question - where the hell is it?

Or even with a dead Atlantic all Winter we still cannot get proper cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

I get the feeling with zonal winds decelerating through spring along with a diminishing W QBO we could be in for a pleasant one. I personally think winters gone now for proper cold. That's 4 years without a reasonable snowy one now. I heard it said a good one comes along about 1 in 5 years so maybe the next:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
5 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I get the feeling with zonal winds decelerating through spring along with a diminishing W QBO we could be in for a pleasant one. I personally think winters gone now for proper cold. That's 4 years without a reasonable snowy one now. I heard it said a good one comes along about 1 in 5 years so maybe the next:good:

im my life time good winters tend to come in batches of twos and threes rather than one in five

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

im my life time good winters tend to come in batches of twos and threes rather than one in five

Indeed. This applies to mild Winters too. I suppose after the batch of cold Winters we had in the late 00s/early 10s it was inevitable we'd have to endure a batch of milder Winters for a while. Being as though this Winter is now the fourth in succession I don't believe it will be too much longer until the next cold one. It could be next Winter, but that would be too specific to guess on. But I think by the late 10s/early 20s we'll see at least one or more. Solar minimum should have commenced by then as well and with it being predicted to be especially quiet (though I'm wary of such long term predictions) this period could hold a lot of promise for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun ,Snow and Cold
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains

I may be looking back at the past with a distorted recollection,but I remember religiously tuning into 'the weather for farmers/countryfile' on a sunday in the 70/80's for the weekly forecast and planning my week on what they said , I don't really remember them being that wrong in those days.

It seems for the all of the advanced technology we're actually no better(if not worse) at forecasting with any accuracy more than 4-5 days in advance.Or was the weather just more predictable back then?

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Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
14 minutes ago, Spurry said:

I may be looking back at the past with a distorted recollection,but I remember religiously tuning into 'the weather for farmers/countryfile' on a sunday in the 70/80's for the weekly forecast and planning my week on what they said , I don't really remember them being that wrong in those days.

It seems for the all of the advanced technology we're actually no better(if not worse) at forecasting with any accuracy more than 4-5 days in advance.Or was the weather just more predictable back then?

I think you are right there weekly forecast was not that bad really this week. Okay few degrees colder they predicted, we have  actually had it a bit warmer no point did say they big amounts of snow. Met office think some of there long range ones have flipped and changed but then again they may be struggling as well with the changes. Think and I include myself in this i let the rampers make me believe then I feel let down I shouldn't do it but I do. 

Edited by pegg24
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ensemble mean map issued back in Dec for Jan to Mar showed high pressure never far away whilst the exact positioning isn't spot on it's right that high pressure would be more dominant than low pressure

2cat_20161201_mslp_months24_global_deter

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

I must admit I'm getting a bit jaded with it now , . Just as an aside , I watched Louise Lear give out the forecast at lunchtime, she looked like  she wanted to throw up or cry when describing the winds and temps for the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
25 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

I must admit I'm getting a bit jaded with it now , . Just as an aside , I watched Louise Lear give out the forecast at lunchtime, she looked like  she wanted to throw up or cry when describing the winds and temps for the next few days.

Lol, whatever happened to those snow days when you couldn't make out each stone step to your front door. Something or someone has exterminated the UK winter we used to know.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The ensemble mean map issued back in Dec for Jan to Mar showed high pressure never far away whilst the exact positioning isn't spot on it's right that high pressure would be more dominant than low pressure

2cat_20161201_mslp_months24_global_deter

The pressure forecast looks pretty good in relation to N.america as well to how it has shaped up.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

The pressure forecast looks pretty good in relation to N.america as well to how it has shaped up.

I have been saying for a while that the sub tropical high pressure belt is expanding Northwards in response to warmer oceans and this chart shows it nicely.

No Northerly blocking either.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

100's of posts in the MOD thread down the pan.....again. Should just read Iapenells posts and save yourselves your time and sanity.

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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

A recent BBC weather Facebook live cast have downplayed this cold snap and the rest of February. He even mentioned "spring like" next week in any brighter periods with temps potentially hitting 11-13C. He did say that this winter had so much potential, but failed to deliver any proper winter weather. He also made a good point that quite a few of our summers do the same thing in terms of prolonged heat and sunny periods. Anyway a few more weeks and spring will be here!!! There is always next winter....

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
49 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Lol, whatever happened to those snow days when you couldn't make out each stone step to your front door. Something or someone has exterminated the UK winter we used to know.

true 50 years ago the snow lay knee high for weeks here i was told now a few inches and its gone in 2 days anyone with a time machine i can use for a few days contact me will you:diablo:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The ensemble mean map issued back in Dec for Jan to Mar showed high pressure never far away whilst the exact positioning isn't spot on it's right that high pressure would be more dominant than low pressure

2cat_20161201_mslp_months24_global_deter

Very good, who produced it?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Very good, who produced it?

The Met Office which seem to get a lot of uncalled 'abuse' initially in October/November updates some excitement was generated as it portrayed extensive northern blocking. 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Very good, who produced it?

UKMO and here's the actual sea level pressure to date.

compday.xoCXNjyzkU.gif

They really pinpointed the centres of high pressure well but they had a mare in the Temp department for Eurasia.

2cat_20161101_temp2m_months24_global_det

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Love a good drizzly Easterly...

:closedeyes:

Drizzle and mist in London, i'm expected all snow to vanish from the forecast soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
6 hours ago, Nouska said:

UKMO and here's the actual sea level pressure to date.

compday.xoCXNjyzkU.gif

They really pinpointed the centres of high pressure well but they had a mare in the Temp department for Eurasia.

2cat_20161101_temp2m_months24_global_det

No surprise they got it wrong considering they forecast the ENTIRE PLANET to be above average!!

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