Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Iceaxecrampon]

Lancashire snowshield running at full capacity as ever

[Man With Beard]

If this chart

produces rain and sleet in early February then honestly ... the snow chasers might as well give up for good.

This should be a nailed-on all-snow chart. I can't believe it is even being suggested as marginal.

[noggin]

26 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Lancashire snowshield running at full capacity as ever

I don't the look of that rainband nosing down towards the Bristol Channel..........I think it's got my name on it. Snow to the North of me and snow to the South. Blooming typical! It won't snow here, that's for sure (might as well try tempting fate!)

Well, to anyone who gets some.........get out there and have some fun with it!

 

[JoeShmoe]

Is it spring yet?

Another mind numbingly dull winter with people chasing rainbows that never materialise - looking forward to feeling the warmth of the sun and getting back in the beer garden :-)

 

[Hanny]

Im normally a positive positive 'glass half full' person but have to admit that the trends and forecasts have been so numerous with 'no shows' that I am finding it very difficult to stay positive. Yesterday we had 95% chance of snow shown on the 7/10 forecast (Netweather) in addition to the experienced posters in the MOD thread ....... but alas it was another 'no show'. I don't think I can remember such a winter as we have seen in regards to 'flip-flop' of the models etc.

Yes it has been good to have a dry winter and that those poor soles last year getting flooded out but I think i would of been happier if the forecast had informed that it would go this way instead of the models showing some great eye candy only to have it dissolve into nothingness.

I now find myself looking forward to Spring and Summer sunshine..............

[abovefreezing]

16 hours ago, Mac_SE said:

Just in case certain members from the Model Output Discussion thread decide to pop by...

'To' is a preposition which begins a prepositional phrase or an infinitive.
'Too' is an adverb meaning "excessively" or "also.

It's really not that difficult!

 

Yes, and don't even get me started on their, there and they're!

Edited February 9, 2017 by abovefreezing

[Frank Trough]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

If this chart

produces rain and sleet in early February then honestly ... the snow chasers might as well give up for good.

This should be a nailed-on all-snow chart. I can't believe it is even being suggested as marginal.

I keep thinking the same thing! HOW DARE THIS EVEN THINK ABOUT BEING MARGINAL? On this basis you can expect the next ice age to only manage to produce drizzle in Bournemouth.

 

[Seasonality]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

If this chart

produces rain and sleet in early February then honestly ... the snow chasers might as well give up for good.

This should be a nailed-on all-snow chart. I can't believe it is even being suggested as marginal.

Well I would hazard a guess it is a case of just viewing that chart in isolation. In an ideal world we could have a terminator style heads up display that projects all of the data to us, not just the 500 thicknesses and pressure, so all of the temperatures in all thicknesses and levels of the air, wind direction, humidity, dew and frost point, wet bulb temperature etc etc so we can have a complete picture of the atmospheric conditions at the time. From my limited understanding, snow in the UK is quite difficult to forecast and relies on many factors, some of which I'm sure I've missed, so that chart alone isn't guaranteed snow....

[Mapantz]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

If this chart

produces rain and sleet in early February then honestly ... the snow chasers might as well give up for good.

This should be a nailed-on all-snow chart. I can't believe it is even being suggested as marginal.

If you look at other factors for the same time frame, such as dew points, wetbulb temp and freezing level, there's enough evidence to show rain at low levels, maybe sleet if you're lucky.

[Frank Trough]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

If you look at other factors for the same time frame, such as dew points, wetbulb temp and freezing level, there's enough evidence to show rain at low levels, maybe sleet if you're lucky.

we know all that............I think the point is how ludicrous things have got when you get a roaring easterly in early February with -8 uppers and still we find a way to get rain...

[Mapantz]

Just now, Certain kind of fool said:

we know all that............I think the point is how ludicrous things have got when you get a roaring easterly in early February with -8 uppers and still we find a way to get rain...

You'll have to point out this roaring Easterly to me..

 

[Frank Trough]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You'll have to point out this roaring Easterly to me..

 

 "roaring easterly sourced from Greece"!!

That said, I challenge you to tell my wife when she's moaning on Saturday that it isn't a roaring easterly she's encountering!

[Mesner]

57 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

 "roaring easterly sourced from Greece"!!

That said, I challenge you to tell my wife when she's moaning on Saturday that it isn't a roaring easterly she's encountering!

A Greeceterly,so! 

 

Edited February 9, 2017 by Mesner

[Weathizard]

Pretty funny how the models are only consistent when they churn out turd! Damn Sod's law.

[mountain shadow]

38 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Pretty funny how the models are only consistent when they churn out turd! Damn Sod's law.

Always been that way. I hardly see the point of them.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

If this chart

produces rain and sleet in early February then honestly ... the snow chasers might as well give up for good.

This should be a nailed-on all-snow chart. I can't believe it is even being suggested as marginal.

probably because it's a weak, half hearted not cold E'ly, need the real blue colours, now this is snow!

[The Wolf]

This cold spell looks like an utter load of rubbish. Dull, dank and hardly any snow.

[cheeky_monkey]

33 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

probably because it's a weak, half hearted not cold E'ly, need the real blue colours, now this is snow!

did not produce much in the way of snow if i remember though

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

did not produce much in the way of snow if i remember though

it did here, after 2000 as well!

[lassie23]

What's approaching over the next three days shouldn't even be described as a cold spell, it's an insult to cold spells, the one a few days back wasn't hyped, yet we had a couple of ice days in London and it got down to -9c at night.

[Hammer50]

Colder in my fridge than outside.

[The Enforcer]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

did not produce much in the way of snow if i remember though

Yes the issue that time was that it was off the back of a very mild December and January and first half of February, so that whenever snow did fall it failed to stick. Then there was the customary mild sector with rain, then a cold sector arrived and the precipitation stopped.

In the current case, it's not just the uppers that are comfortably cold enough on Saturday, the uppers and dew points over the continent and even over the North Sea itself over which the air is travelling are cold. It has not been a mild winter here and has been very cold over Central Europe, particularly Greece where some of this air is coming from. Computer says rain.

I think the overarching theme is: 'if it can rain, it will rain'.

[Weathizard]

Couldn't care less about the models now, given up hope on even examining the charts and posting in the model thread.

In some ways it's been more frustrating than a zonal dominated winter, in that we've had promising charts time and time again and ended up with virtually nothing.

ho hum it's only weather, roll on a nice warm spring. *

 

* in before the inevitable greenland high when it's too warm for snow

Edited February 9, 2017 by Weathizard

[mountain shadow]

So thats another Winter down the pan without a +3 proper snowy cold spell.

So near and yet so far.

Well next Winter will be -qbo, solar minimum approaching. What can possibly go wrong.

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So thats another Winter down the pan without a +3 proper snowy cold spell.

So near and yet so far.

Well next Winter will be -qbo, solar minimum approaching. What can possibly go wrong.

A little shortwave just south of Greenland, probably