Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[pureasthedriven]

51 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Really hoping the forecasted cool to cold March buggers off soon, nothing worse than looking forward to switching the heating off and mild mornings, only to be confronted with a fourth month of faux-winter.

Sod's law it'll be bloody freezing all month... 

 

 

 

Yep - through no other than complete anecdotal hunch and years of watching the weather (with a nod towards potential start warming lag), I see the chances of a cold/cool/chilly March and/or April as odds on, just when we (I) want some spring warmth. Bit like October's set-up when I said to my missus (as I'm sure plenty did) 'give us this set-up in Jan and we'd be buried in snow'. Blocks in all the right places at all the wrong time and vice versa. 

[Kentish Man]

Going by this morning's models it looks like we can finally write off winter now after this four day sadly neutered beast from the east coming up. The 2016/17 winter has largely been a let down for cold lovers after many early forecasts for a below average season and constant hints of wintry spells in the models only for them to be downgraded or disappear as they move into the reliable 120 hour timeframe.    

[Milhouse]

Fantastic ecm 0z. Similar charts to the famous Feb 98. Even just getting into double digits would suit me.

[Nath]

Such a shame, as we were so near to getting the perfect UK snow and cold setup.  Ah well at least heating bills will be lower I suppose!

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Nath said:

Such a shame, as we were so near to getting the perfect UK snow and cold setup.  Ah well at least heating bills will be lower I suppose!

The problem with this spell coming up is the temps in eastern Europe and Russia are forecast to be not too low

Take Moscow as an example today's high -12c Saturday's high -2c

So with no real cold air out east to tap into by the weekend that's why our temps won't be much below 3 to 5c by day

[sparky1972]

afternoon all, well temps already 1.5c above forecast, winds from the s/se certainly not feeling cold, but hoping it will feel a bit wintry soon, if not bring on the early signs of spring next week, may i say its been a great few days reading views on will it wont it snow etc but i feel that although some will see snow its not going to hang around for long

[Wimbledon88]

Well it looks like another borefest week or two coming up,weatherwise. Well I suppose folk that wanted the 'easterly' finally got it!! At least with a good blast from the north or the north west we get proper weather....and more folk see snow,even down here sometimes.

Those 'models' really are crap mind,what dullard writes and tests the programmes.Mind you,99% of the population arent bothered about the weather so I suppose you get what you pay for.

Better of asking a catwalk model what the weathers going to be like next week,and she(he) would probably be much more precise!

" oh it ll be dull and probably drizzle at some stage,unlikely to snow"

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

As usual we get zero snowfall!! Nada!! 0.

[Number 23]

3 hours ago, pureasthedriven said:

Yep - through no other than complete anecdotal hunch and years of watching the weather (with a nod towards potential start warming lag), I see the chances of a cold/cool/chilly March and/or April as odds on, just when we (I) want some spring warmth. Bit like October's set-up when I said to my missus (as I'm sure plenty did) 'give us this set-up in Jan and we'd be buried in snow'. Blocks in all the right places at all the wrong time and vice versa. 

Agreed. Been lurking for years, and can tell a 'good' chart from a bad one but that's about it.

When I saw October's output, I did have a hunch we may miss out this winter - nothing scientific - only that synoptics like that are so hard to come by. Law of averages, the law of sod and gut feelings are about as technical as I get lol. 

Certainly the signals from the strat seem to be consistent and have been for a while, which is a shame for me, because I have zero interest in cold or even significant snow come late Feb early March, in the same way I don't want 30+ degrees in September. I like my seasons to switch quickly and stick to the script!  

I do see some of the experts thinking the effect could be felt earlier, if so bring it on! 

[Catacol]

Almost time I think to start contemplating Spring and putting this winter to bed. Might be a late rally at the end of the month if the vortex is hit again... but from my perspective living in the SW March is simply too late to get excited about. Cold over the next few days might bring the odd snow shower but nothing in the way of substantial snow for lowland England. Ironically any rise on pressure towards Greenland may actually bring a west based NAO and bring mild rather than cold air as the month develops.

There will be time to review the winter later when it is properly finished, but without doubt disappointment is the overall emotion right now. Some of the building blocks have been good, especially the weak atlantic, something I read as being the product of a decline in solar activity that should continue apace into next winter. But the timing of the removal of atmospheric Nino tendencies, and the strong wQBO for me has coupled to prevent a proper assault on the strat, and helped prevent any substantial pacific amplification until now - and then ironically we get a spike in MJO activity that is almost TOO big and pushes too quickly through phases 7 and 8.

I'm not especially interested in Spring/Summer weather so once we get through the next 3 - 4 weeks I'll be in relative hibernation.... but with half an eye on patterns for next winter. The forecast of a weak Nino is a decent starting point. Solar influence should be even lower. QBO ought to reverse - though who can be absolutely certain of that given the weird behaviour of 2016. These 3 would be great long term teleconnections going forward.

So fingers crossed for a reversal in teleconnective fortune at the death end of the season - but I think it unlikely. We certainly haven't been fortunate this season even given the variable background factors. A decent snowfall event COULD have happened in the setup we have had, but no joy and no joy on the horizon to my eye. Maybe/hopefully 2017_18 can be more generous.

[Anon90]

Really it's now time for model wathcers to either to looking for Spring weather or look for another Hobby, as for the sunspot count well at end of day that's just one variable just like other certain other background signals

[The Wolf]

Almost time to let yet another winter go. Looks like game over after Saturday and probably not much decent snow for many in this spell anyway.

[Kentish Man]

For a spot of optimism this winter is not entirely unlike 1975/76 in its relative mildness and dryness and even with a half-baked easterly in February. That was followed by the hot 1976 summer and a 10 year cycle of mainly cooler winters  ending in 1986/87 

[Matthew.]

45 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

For a spot of optimism this winter is not entirely unlike 1975/76 in its relative mildness and dryness and even with a half-baked easterly in February. That was followed by the hot 1976 summer and a 10 year cycle of mainly cooler winters  ending in 1986/87 

Trouble is these 76, 95 glorious summers and 63, 47 freezing snowy winters raises expectations incredibly high. A summer like 2013, 06, 03 is much more reasonable and a winter like 08/09, 12/13.

Edited February 8, 2017 by Matthew Wilson

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Trouble is these 76, 95 glorious summers and 63, 47 freezing snowy winters raises expectations incredibly high. A summer like 2013, 06, 03 is much more reasonable and a winter like 08/09, 12/13.

Not much by way of compensation, I know - but 1947 also had a cracking summer!

[Snipper]

I wonder how much time has been wasted by people being hooked to some of the threads on here?

Think how much could have been done that hasn't been done.

Possibly it is some sort of disease.  We could set up a therapy thread.

[Iceaxecrampon]

..........was the forum downtime this morning to enable the clearing up of excess accumulated toys?

[snow freak]

yet another dire winter after so much promise in the late Autumn.  we have seen models predicting real cold and snow only for them to backtrack at the last moment or even if they do materialise, the cold and snow have been far less than anticipated.  we have had 1 morning of snow this winter so far and I see no reason for that total to go up before the winter is finally over.  at least it beats last winter when we didn't even get 1 day of snow.  We used to be more or less guaranteed at least a few days of snow cover each winter, even during the milder winters but even a day or so of snow now seems to be a rarity.  I used to look forward to winter but these days I just want to see it over and done with.  At least with the summer you don't have to waste money on heating costs (although even that can't be guaranteed with a british summer).  All we seem to have these days is cool summers and mild winters, basically one long Autumn.  So boring.

[snow freak]

4 hours ago, Nath said:

Such a shame, as we were so near to getting the perfect UK snow and cold setup.  Ah well at least heating bills will be lower I suppose!

problem is our heating bills are usually the same whether it is 5c or -5c, we still have to have the heating on regardless.  that's what annoys me.  at least if we had cold weather we could at least enjoy it and have to pay the heating bills too but if it is just dull, drizzly but still chilly, say under 10c we still use the same amount of heating basically but don't actually enjoy the borefest weather.  we can't seem to win either way in this country.

[snow freak]

7 hours ago, pureasthedriven said:

Yep - through no other than complete anecdotal hunch and years of watching the weather (with a nod towards potential start warming lag), I see the chances of a cold/cool/chilly March and/or April as odds on, just when we (I) want some spring warmth. Bit like October's set-up when I said to my missus (as I'm sure plenty did) 'give us this set-up in Jan and we'd be buried in snow'. Blocks in all the right places at all the wrong time and vice versa. 

yes I'm sure you are right.  come March or April we will finally get the cold ....just when its too late and we want the weather to warm up.  This country always has its weather patterns topsy turvy.  I hate late winter cold in the Spring because even if it snows it hardly lasts until mid morning, so what is the point.  Also after several months of dull, cold (but not cold enough for snow) weather all I want by late March and April is some spring warmth at last.  I used to love the winter but these days they have become so unexciting and tedious I cannot wait for spring and summer.

[pegg24]

22 minutes ago, snow freak said:

yes I'm sure you are right.  come March or April we will finally get the cold ..just when its too late and we want the weather to warm up.  This country always has its weather patterns topsy turvy.  I hate late winter cold in the Spring because even if it snows it hardly lasts until mid morning, so what is the point.  Also after several months of dull, cold (but not cold enough for snow) weather all I want by late March and April is some spring warmth at last.  I used to love the winter but these days they have become so unexciting and tedious I cannot wait for spring and summer.

Could not have said it better myself. Joke this winter has been  come April May will be 8c and raining Spain Greece be 30c. Was somebody on model forum other night said don't know why the negativity we got to be really unlucky this time to not get any luck at all. As we got it going for us blocks and Atlantic is dead and we still can't get any actually what people want a dumping of snow. Question what and how we get a load of snow then. 

Edited February 8, 2017 by pegg24

[Anon90]

There's now talk of another warming, hopefully it ends up leading to more mid latitude blocking so we get a nice start to Spring.

Edited February 8, 2017 by Anon90

[sparky1972]

well, just had out first heavy sleety shower hopefully the begining of a wintry cpl of days before spring arrives next week, lol.

[Spurry]

2 hours ago, snow freak said:

yes I'm sure you are right.  come March or April we will finally get the cold ....just when its too late and we want the weather to warm up.  This country always has its weather patterns topsy turvy.  I hate late winter cold in the Spring because even if it snows it hardly lasts until mid morning, so what is the point.  Also after several months of dull, cold (but not cold enough for snow) weather all I want by late March and April is some spring warmth at last.  I used to love the winter but these days they have become so unexciting and tedious I cannot wait for spring and summer.

I love the cold(and Snow , which never comes) in winter, but by the time we get to March/April time I've completely changed and long for long warm sunny days all the way through to September(when it's time to head off down to Spain ),Over the past few years April/May have been our best periods for sunshine here in NW England ,there's normally a HP that brings cloud and cold winds to the east coast but by the time it get's over the Pennines it's usually sunny and warm..That's what i'm looking forward to (and a trip to SE Spain in late April).

It was noticeable today that it was still light until about 5:20 pm...can't wait for the clocks to go forward.

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by Spurry

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Who's looking forward to an early spring next week ?