Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Apparently it has snowed in Dubai. http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-snow-alert-heavy-storm-blankets-mountain-1237934797

Interesting about Kuwaits historic snow event too

[KTtom]

9 hours ago, ribster said:

Oh lord, what is it with every potential cold spell we get, there seems to be an influx of people that never post on the forum, wanting to poo poo every run with knee jerk reactions?

Perhaps they feel drawn in to balance out the ridiculous over hyped comentry that comes out with every run...Ramping isn't the word....IF is see the word 'boom' again for a slack easterly Flow!,...arghhhhhhhh

[DanDorsetUK]

I'm affraid to many look into the model crystal ball and overreact the potential outcome. Terms such as Snowmageddon and Booooom come to mind then Booooom soon turns into a small firecracker. This cold spell knocking on the door has never really shown large amounts of snow just mainly dry chilly days and frosty nights. Yes you get the odd better run but the theme for mainly dry n crisp has been the main runner for some time.

[Gustywind]

The disappointment for me is our failure to take advantage of proper northern blocking. The upper air temperatures are really poor, despite plenty of deep cold on the nearby continent. We fail by the narrowest of margins to get proper deep cold across the whole of the UK, it's almost like we have an anti cold forcefield around us this year.

Every time deep cold gets close to the UK, the flow switches or the Azores high interferes.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

19 hours ago, Spikey M said:

Have the straws that were being grasped at in the MOD thread been returned to near by Pubs and Bars?

Indeed they have and they told me if you need any straw this spring theres plenty of dry grass around

[markyo]

Sorry way to many pseudo academics on this forum spouting their take on the charts as though it is gospel in my opinion,strange how quite they go when time after time they are proved wrong.

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, markyo said:

Sorry way to many pseudo academics on this forum spouting their take on the charts as though it is gospel in my opinion,strange how quite they go when time after time they are proved wrong.

Harsh! But i must admit for the talk of mjo really assisting its still a sinking high lol.

[markyo]

Tad harsh i agree,but a bit of truth i'm afraid. Many great posters on here who actually do know their stuff,they help a lot but there are some who shall we say not so knowledgeable,just pretend they are.....can be a bit obvious really.

[78/79]

I don't pretend to  know  much about interpreting charts etc, although  I know a lot more now thanks to this forum. The way that I see it is  a week or two ago  some were writing February off as being  zonal,  now  we have  a half decent cold spell coming up . As I have said before ,    all we are looking at  with the models is a computer generated  prediction of what might happen  nothing more.  Sometimes I think that we were better off in terms of our sanity when we used to  wait for the Country File  forecast on Sunday lunchtimes. Always a bit of excitement when the presenter used to intimate that things were going to turn colder at the end of the week ahead. Sometimes it happened , sometimes it did'nt.

[noggin]

I think I'll get my info from this thread in future, it seems far more rational and grounded than the model discussion thread. This will be the last time I ever get sucked in by the hype of a possible repeat of 1962/3. Apart from anything else it's embarrassing when you have told your family to be prepared and then you end up looking like a right twit! Ah, well, as someone once said "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me".  Now to gather my dignity and advise family to stand down! 

[Matthew.]

24 minutes ago, noggin said:

I think I'll get my info from this thread in future, it seems far more rational and grounded than the model discussion thread. This will be the last time I ever get sucked in by the hype of a possible repeat of 1962/3. Apart from anything else it's embarrassing when you have told your family to be prepared and then you end up looking like a right twit! Ah, well, as someone once said "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me".  Now to gather my dignity and advise family to stand down! 

Trouble is in this case scenario model runs are flipping from cold to very cold, thus the difference from rain to snow and dry to showery from 1 run to the next. There's going to be much more crying and laughing in the mod thread today I think

Edited February 5, 2017 by Matthew Wilson

[noggin]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Trouble is in this case scenario model runs are flipping from cold to very cold, thus the difference from rain to snow from 1 to the next. There's going to be much more crying and laughing in the mod thread today I think

I don't think my nerves can stand much more! Sadly, despite my best intentions, I just know that I will be inexplicably drawn back in. 

[SteveB]

I think is safe to say it's going to get colder from mid/late next week, but how cold & whether there's any snow to be had, is still very much up in the air (if you pardon the pun)

Edited February 5, 2017 by SteveB

[noggin]

Talk now in the mod thread.......epic, beast from the east is coming, countrywide snow and many more excitement-inducing phrases........I want to believe it...... 

[noggin]

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

I think is safe to say it's going to get colder, from mid/late next week, but how cold & whether there's any snow to be had, is still very much up in the air (if you pardon the pun)

Yep, it's down on the ground we want it.........not up in the air. Have only had that one light bit of snow a few weeks back which disappeared as quickly as it came. Can't keep taking all these knock backs.

[cyclonic happiness]

12 minutes ago, noggin said:

I don't think my nerves can stand much more! Sadly, despite my best intentions, I just know that I will be inexplicably drawn back in. 

Yes, let's see what imaginative way we can take to avoid the cold spell and snow this time?  

[SteveB]

7 minutes ago, noggin said:

Talk now in the mod thread.......epic, beast from the east is coming, countrywide snow and many more excitement-inducing phrases........I want to believe it...... 

We all do, but we've been her before, & a fair few times this Winter.

I staying neutral now, almost become numb from all the let down's - it's kinda left me skeptical of any cold/snowy weather showing on the charts.

The good thing is, it's nearly Spring, the day's are getting longer. I feel tons better (I think I suffer from S.A.D syndrome) now January is out of the way, we have the carrot of cold & snow still dangling in front of us, so all's good!

Edited February 5, 2017 by SteveB

[Methuselah]

When I first dipped into the MAD thread, this morning, there'd been an upgrade and then a downgrade; after that, it all went pete tong, but didn't really...It's amazing how the same data can lead different peeps to such diametrically opposed conclusions...Headaches all round?

[Summer Sun]

"Cold Feb more likely"

 

[78/79]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When I first dipped into the MAD thread, this morning, there'd been an upgrade and then a downgrade; after that, it all went pete tong, but didn't really...It's amazing how the same data can lead different peeps to such diametrically opposed conclusions...Headaches all round?

I know what you mean Pete, It's up and down like a yo yo in there. I must admit I hope the youngsters get some snow, for myself , cold and dry will do me fine , in the absence of any white stuff . The halting of any mild wet Atlantic onslaught is  good news in my book

[Hanny]

I'm wondering if there is a misunderstanding  with peoples interpretation as people are living in different parts of the UK and when some posters say snow, cold etc. the prediction of cold/very cold assessment might be relative to their respective area. Readers may think that a post is in relation to the whole of the UK or their own area, of corse nor withstanding that all are predictions or theories based on trends/experience. 

I think it fair to say that this site is a source for discussions and not as a fact of what will happen- there is no computer and/or person that can give a 100% forecast.

This forum should used/read on an interest and views bias as oppposed to a fact 'what WILL happen, after Netweather is just a hobby interest forum, nothing more.

[chicken soup]

Mmmmm latest met update says possible snow for the northwest late next week...from an easterly??????

[Rob125]

I'm certain that one of the problems of the model thread relates to IMBYism (if such a word exists). Posters are bound to relate to where they live and we all know that UK wide snow is extremely unusual - I seem to recall a famous satellite image form many years ago when just about the whole of the UK had snow cover. That was very unusual. We all know that some parts can have extreme conditions whilst others remain snowless - we don't seem to have many posters who live in the better off areas as most tell of snowless winters. I remember in March 2013 there was the very heavy snow in the Channel Islands - roughly 100 miles south as the crow flies and a week later a similar event in North Wales - 100 miles north. Hardly a flake fell here in Somerset. Conversely this area was hit by the February 1978 blizzard and I can actually see some similarity to the set up we have now to that of then. High pressure built over Scandinavia, an easterly was produced and then some warm air encroached from Biscay and dumped 30cm plus of snow over Devon/Dorset/Somerset but nothing much north of the M4 corridor - it is more usual for the snow to fall north of that infamous corridor! I actually believe that there were be moans if we had a month of -10C daytime temperatures if no snow resulted, so talk of cold pools etc is not really what people want if it is a dry mass associated with it. Let's just wait and see what comes and accept that we have little control over the weather and it will continue to fascinate us.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

3 hours ago, noggin said:

I think I'll get my info from this thread in future, it seems far more rational and grounded than the model discussion thread. This will be the last time I ever get sucked in by the hype of a possible repeat of 1962/3. Apart from anything else it's embarrassing when you have told your family to be prepared and then you end up looking like a right twit! Ah, well, as someone once said "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me".  Now to gather my dignity and advise family to stand down! 

Believe me, most who hanker after a repeat of '62/'63 would regret it should it happen again.  I was there!

[Spikey M]

3 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Believe me, most who hanker after a repeat of '62/'63 would regret it should it happen again.  I was there!

Absolutely. BUT, That's the main reason why I want to experience it. I'm an extremophile.